Australia’s peak property season has opened slowly, with its first weekend featuring low stock and subdued auction success rates outside Sydney and Melbourne.
Capital cities hosted 1462 auctions in the first week of spring, more than 30% down on the figure for a year earlier.
The combined preliminary clearance rate hit 52.7%, just 0.4 percentage points above the winter average, according to data from Cotality.
But Cotality research director Tim Lawless said he expected activity to build during September.
“Auction activity is set to ramp up over the coming weeks, rising to around 1640 next week and 1900 the week after,” he said.
Sydney and Melbourne show some strength
Despite an overall slow weekend nationally, there were some green shoots in the market. Sydney’s preliminary auction clearance rate hit 57.7%, an 18-week high, while Melbourne recorded a preliminary rate of 58.2%.
Clearance rates are seen as a strong leading indicator for property prices, which have been falling since a national market peak in March.
An auction success rate of below 60% typically points to lower home prices.
Clearance rates were lower in the smaller capitals, with Brisbane recording successful sales in just 24.8% of auctions, its second-weakest result of the year.
Rate rises weigh on the spring market
The subdued start to spring comes after a series of interest rate rises and mid-year tax changes that targeted property investors.
The government in June passed sweeping changes to capital gains taxes, while also rolling back negative gearing incentives for existing properties.
Economists are forecasting another interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia before the end of 2026, which could trigger further price falls.
National prices are down 3.6 per cent since March, according to Cotality, while in Sydney home prices are 7.1 per cent below their peak.
CommBank economists last week revised their outlook on the property market, saying they now expect national dwelling prices to fall around 9% from their peak this cycle. They also expect the Reserve Bank to raise the cash rate by another 0.25 percentage points to 4.60% in November