![\"David](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/1779100635_390_3da9359c86ffb86321c8a9859ae9effb.jpeg\")
<\/p>\nOne Nation’s rise in Tasmania has surged to become the third-most popular party after the Liberals and Labor, according to a recent state poll of voting intentions.<\/p>\n
The right-wing populist party, which is not yet registered to run candidates in Tasmanian state elections, was the first choice for 19 per cent of voters in the latest EMRS poll, up 5 per cent on its February result.<\/p>\n
Most of those votes flowed from the Liberals, which recorded a vote of 25 per cent, just ahead of Labor on 24 per cent.<\/p>\n
Of the poll’s 1,000 respondents, 16 per cent said they planned to vote for an independent and 14 per cent for the Greens.<\/p>\n
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One Nation’s David Farley scored a thumping win in the recent Farrer by-election. (ABC: Philippe Perez)<\/p>\n
At last year’s state election held in July, the Liberals won 40 per cent of the vote and Labor 25 per cent.<\/p>\n
Jeremy Rockliff remained the preferred premier with 44 per cent, compared with 25 per cent for Labor Leader Josh Willie.<\/p>\n
The survey, taken from May 11\u201413, has a maximum margin of error of 3.10 per cent.<\/p>\n
The poll was taken before the government announced a $506 million bailout for state ferry operator TT-Line<\/a>, and a change to the structure of its planned insurance agency, TasInsure<\/a>.<\/p>\n Predictions of One Nation decline ‘misguided’<\/p>\n One Nation’s Lee Hanson, daughter of the party’s founder Pauline Hanson, was contacted for comment but did not respond.<\/p>\n EMRS managing director Brad Stansfield said the One Nation’s support was “consolidating, not softening” and called it a “fundamental shift in the state’s political landscape”.<\/p>\n Lee Hanson campaigned for a Tasmanian Senate seat in 2025. (ABC News: Ebony ten Broeke)<\/p>\n Mr Stansfield, who was chief of staff to former Liberal premier Will Hodgman and who ran several state and federal campaigns for the party, said the result “put to bed any suggestion that the Tasmanian Liberal government was immune to the nationwide rise of One Nation”.<\/p>\n “The Liberals face a serious challenge as the broader centre-right reconfigures around One Nation,” Mr Stansfield said.<\/p>\n “Labor’s difficulty is that its own vote share remains stagnant, even as the right re-aligns.”<\/p>\n Loading…<\/p>\n Mr Stansfield told 936 ABC Hobart that on the current numbers, One Nation would win a “number of seats” at an election.<\/p>\n “There’s been a misguided view in some circles that the One Nation campaign bus would run off the road at some point and everything would be back to situation normal,” he said.<\/p>\n “Federally, we’re seeing that’s not the case; certainly wasn’t the case in Farrer.”<\/p>\n One Nation’s win in the Farrer by-election in May marked the first time the party has won a lower house seat in federal parliament.<\/p>\n One Nation rise a ‘worrying trend’<\/p>\n This poll was the first time the major parties combined were tipped to secure fewer than half the votes.<\/p>\n![\"Woman](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/d0fd95db2e7ac6f3895c23afe491d323.jpeg\")
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