![\"CBA](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/housing_1264.png\")
CBA is no longer tipping any house price growth this year. \u00b7 Getty <\/p>\n CBA is no longer tipping any house price growth this year. \u00b7 Getty <\/p>\n
The nation\u2019s largest mortgage lender has revised down its expectations of any price growth in Australian real estate this year. Commonwealth Bank economists have rethought their projections as the property market faces \u201cmultiple headwinds\u201d they believe will \u201chit home prices by more than expected\u201d.<\/p>\n
Heading into budget night with tax concessions for future real estate investors expected to be wound back, the major bank was relatively sanguine about the overall impact<\/a> on prices. But it now says the tax changes have been thrown into a mix of negative sentiment<\/a> that will likely see lower house prices.<\/p>\n \u201cThere has been a particularly noticeable shift in sentiment following the housing tax policy changes in the Federal Budget, adding to a deterioration that began in late 2025,\u201d the bank\u2019s senior economist Trent Saunders wrote.<\/p>\n \u201cThe tax changes have accelerated a slowdown that was already underway.\u201d<\/p>\n RELATED<\/p>\n The bank economist pointed to higher interest rates, tighter financing conditions, and worsening sentiment as a turning point for the market in the near term.<\/p>\n \u201cWe now expect national dwelling prices to be flat over 2026, down from a forecast of 3% at Budget and 5% in March,\u201d he wrote in a market note on Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n \u201cWe have also placed more weight on the downside scenario flagged on Budget night, where the long\u2011run policy drag on prices is closer to 5%, rather than our initial central estimate of around 3%.\u201d<\/p>\n Commonwealth Bank was the last of the Big Four to officially inform brokers and clients that it was changing how it lends<\/a> to investors in lieu of the ability to negatively gear.<\/p>\n Saunders also pointed to a belief that investors are unlikely to place much value on the ability to quarantine losses under the new rules as part of the bank\u2019s revised forecast on price growth.<\/p>\n \u201cAuction clearance rates have been falling since the RBA started its recent hiking cycle, price growth has continued to slow, and sales activity has softened. Tighter credit conditions are also likely to bring forward part of the adjustment by reducing borrowing capacity, particularly for investors,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n PM pleads case for tax changes <\/p>\n Taxpayer backed first home buyer schemes that let new buyers purchase a home for as little as 2 per cent<\/a> of the price are not enough on their own to get more people into the property market, the prime minister says<\/a>, shrugging off calls to hit pause on contentious tax changes.<\/p>\n Federal parliament is continuing to debate looming tax changes that would limit negative gearing to new properties from July 2027, as well as axe a 50 per cent discount on capital gains tax to a rate tied to inflation.<\/p>\n “We know also that we needed to do more. We need to do more, because in spite of all of those programs we still were not doing enough,” he told parliament on Wednesday.<\/p>\n RELATED: Pension rule change for family home could bring ‘true reform’ after Budget targets investors<\/a><\/p>\n “Too many young people will tell the story of turning up to an auction on a Saturday and simply being outbid by someone who has a partner at that auction, an investor, and the partner is every Australian taxpayer.<\/p>\n “If they’re in a bidding war at an auction, the investor knows that if they go for $20,000 more then that’s running off their tax, if they’re going to negatively gear that property, something that’s not available to the first home buyer.”<\/p>\n The changes \u2013 which controversially increase the tax burden across all assets classes<\/a> \u2013 are set to be voted on in the lower house on Thursday.<\/p>\n Get the latest Yahoo Finance news – follow us on Facebook<\/a>, LinkedIn<\/a> and Instagram<\/a>.<\/p>\n