{"id":32715,"date":"2026-06-17T00:43:33","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T00:43:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/32715\/"},"modified":"2026-06-17T00:43:33","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T00:43:33","slug":"tasmanian-senator-jonno-duniams-resignation-could-open-door-for-one-nation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/32715\/","title":{"rendered":"Tasmanian senator Jonno Duniam’s resignation could open door for One Nation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jonno Duniam’s decision to leave the Senate by the end of the year thrusts the Tasmanian branch of the Liberal Party into uncertainty.<\/p>\n

But Sunday’s announcement also made one thing clear \u2014 why so many big names had been throwing their hat into the preselection ring.<\/p>\n

Senator Wendy Askew’s decision not to recontest<\/a> the seat she’s held since 2019 has meant the second spot on the Liberals’ Senate ticket at the next federal election will be up for grabs.<\/p>\n

\"Angus<\/p>\n

Jonno Duniam said he had discussed the decision with Angus Taylor (right) a few weeks earlier. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)<\/p>\n

The real prize was only revealed on Sunday; there’s a seat open from the end of this year.<\/p>\n

A panel of members in August will not only decide who takes the crucial top two places on the 2028 federal election ballot, but also who fills the casual vacancy.<\/p>\n

Loading…<\/p>\n

Former Liberal strategist Brad Stansfield made the first public bid <\/a>on Friday, through his political podcast Poll Position.<\/p>\n

“I’m genuinely worried about the future of the country if the Liberal Party can’t get itself sorted out before the next election,” he said to his listeners.<\/p>\n

He has since received an endorsement from Senator Duniam, who said the party needed “political smarts”.<\/p>\n

“We are in the business of winning votes, and he [Stansfield] is someone who has a good track record of winning votes,” Senator Duniam said on Sunday.<\/p>\n

Mr Stansfield also has the backing of three Tasmanian premiers, listed in a brochure being distributed to members.<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

Brad Stansfield has announced his tilt for a Senate seat. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)<\/p>\n

It may already be about winning second place.<\/p>\n

Former deputy premier, former federal member for Bass, and sitting state MP Michael Ferguson is understood to be canvassing a tilt at preselection for the Senate.<\/p>\n

Liberal frontbencher Jonno Duniam to retire<\/a><\/p>\n

Senator Duniam says it is time to prioritise his family after 25 years in politics.<\/p>\n

In a post to his website last week, Mr Ferguson acknowledged the speculation about his future.<\/p>\n

“None of us knows what tomorrow brings,” he wrote, not ruling out a run.<\/p>\n

Former Tasmanian health minister Sarah Courtney is also understood to have been making calls.<\/p>\n

Latrobe councillor Jacki Martin, who is a parliamentary advisor to Wendy Askew, held the third spot on the Liberals’ Senate ticket in 2025.<\/p>\n

She has remained an active presence on social media since that tilt and could run again if some of the more established names drop out.<\/p>\n

Changing face of the Liberal Party<\/p>\n

In his announcement, Senator Duniam acknowledged he was leaving his post at an inopportune time.<\/p>\n

With the rise of One Nation<\/a>, the federal Liberal Party is arguably facing its greatest threat.<\/p>\n

One Nation could disrupt Victorian politics<\/a><\/p>\n

The idea that One Nation could come close to the government benches was absurd six months ago, but it is a prospect Victorian Labor MPs and insiders are increasingly discussing.<\/p>\n

A sharp performer in front of the cameras, Senator Duniam would have been an asset in the next campaign and the lead-up to it.<\/p>\n

Tasmania’s federal Liberal team is just four strong, and two of them are leaving.<\/p>\n

Claire Chandler was recently elevated to Angus Taylor’s shadow cabinet. Come next election, she will be Tasmania’s most senior federal Liberal.<\/p>\n

But neither she nor Richard Colbeck is a household name.<\/p>\n

The Liberals hold none of Tasmania’s five lower house seats, having lost Bass and Braddon to Labor<\/a> at the 2025 election.<\/p>\n

It leaves the party with its smallest footprint in recent history.<\/p>\n

Whoever does come in the door will be needed to help turn the tide.<\/p>\n

Lee Hanson, the daughter of Pauline Hanson, is leading the One Nation charge in Tasmania<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"Woman<\/p>\n

Lee Hanson has continued to build her profile. (ABC News: Ebony ten Broeke)<\/p>\n

Ms Hanson missed out on a Senate seat last year and has continued to build her profile since then.<\/p>\n

In February this year, polling company EMRS \u2014 which Mr Stansfield owns \u2014 found that 24 per cent of Tasmanian voters intended to back One Nation<\/a> with a first preference vote at the federal election.<\/p>\n

With the party’s surge in the polls, one or even two Senate seats are in play.<\/p>\n

The most likely source for the first appears to be Labor, which will have three senators up for re-election.<\/p>\n

This is thanks to Tammy Tyrrell, the former Jacqui Lambie Network senator who turned independent before joining the government ranks<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Could that second come from the Liberals?<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

Labor’s Tammy Tyrrell was elected under the Jacqui Lambie Network banner in 2022. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)<\/p>\n

Crunch time for Liberal Party<\/p>\n

How best to fend off One Nation is a nationwide conversation for the Liberals, not just a Tasmanian one.<\/p>\n

The party has been openly discussing whether the path forward lies to the left or the right.<\/p>\n

Tasmanian Liberal senator won’t seek re-election<\/a><\/p>\n

A Tasmanian senator will not recontest her seat in 2028, meaning it is up for the taking by Liberal colleagues and possibly a resurgent One Nation.<\/p>\n

With Mr Taylor becoming the federal party leader and former prime minister Tony Abbott elected unopposed as party president<\/a>, it appears to be the latter.<\/p>\n

It raises the question of what the Tasmanian campaign will look like at the next election.<\/p>\n

Can it be more organised than the last one, in which the state office complained of a disconnect with the federal leader?<\/p>\n

Can Senator Chandler lead a campaign that wins back the middle, having previously courted controversy for her views about transgender women?<\/p>\n

Perhaps One Nation is viewed as a more pressing threat.<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

Lee Hanson speaks at a March for Australia demonstration last year. (ABC News: Monty Jacka)<\/p>\n

Mr Stansfield, a conservative, has warned against the Liberals “following One Nation down the rabbit hole”.<\/p>\n

Interestingly, the state government he comes from has been so successful because it’s been able to “own” the middle.<\/p>\n

The party has fewer than two years to work out how to stave off electoral oblivion.<\/p>\n

There may be nothing more valuable than someone who just knows how to win votes.<\/p>\n

Editor’s note 16\/6\/26: A previous version of this story incorrectly said the Liberal preselection would be decided via a member ballot. Liberal preselection will actually be decided by members voting for a preselection panel and then the panel members will decide who to select. The story also said Lee Hanson “narrowly” missed out on a Senate seat but she was still far off from a quota.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Jonno Duniam’s decision to leave the Senate by the end of the year thrusts the Tasmanian branch of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":32716,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[22,4917,21,3216,29558,29557,4806,1955,1926,20688,26591,5951,5247],"class_list":["post-32715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-australia","tag-au","tag-auspol","tag-austrlia","tag-federal-parliament","tag-jonathon-duniam","tag-lee-hanson","tag-liberals","tag-one-nation","tag-pauline-hanson","tag-polling","tag-senate","tag-tas","tag-tasmania"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32715","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32715"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32715\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32716"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32715"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32715"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32715"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}