{"id":4042,"date":"2026-05-03T23:01:29","date_gmt":"2026-05-03T23:01:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/4042\/"},"modified":"2026-05-03T23:01:29","modified_gmt":"2026-05-03T23:01:29","slug":"nepean-by-election-proof-november-state-election-will-be-tough-contest-for-major-parties","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/4042\/","title":{"rendered":"Nepean by-election proof November state election will be tough contest for major parties"},"content":{"rendered":"

Victorians Liberals are breathing a sigh of relief.<\/p>\n

When Opposition Leader Jess Wilson was first confronted by the reality that Liberal MP Sam Groth’s resignation from parliament would force a by-election on the Mornington Peninsula, she declared she was “excited by the opportunity”<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That opportunity threatened to become a nightmare, with a surging One Nation and determined independent Tracee Hutchison challenging the status quo and potentially derailing any momentum Wilson had gathered in the lead-up to the November general election.<\/p>\n

The Liberals’s Anthony Marsh has won, but One Nation did win a quarter of the vote and that should sound alarm in Labor, Liberal and Nationals headquarters.<\/p>\n

\"Wooden<\/p>\n

One Nation and independent Tracee Hutchison presented a challenge for the Liberal Party. (ABC News)<\/p>\n

In the days leading up to Saturday’s poll, Liberal MPs and insiders were preparing for a long night, and potentially days, of painstaking vote counting.<\/p>\n

Expectations were being lowered.<\/p>\n

It was a genuine fear that the party would lose a lot of the primary vote and the most pessimistic were worried the seat would fall to One Nation’s Darren Hercus.<\/p>\n

The Liberals’ primary vote did drop 9.6 per cent. If this were to happen in November, the quest to topple the government would fail.<\/p>\n

“We know we have lessons to learn from last night’s result; we know we have more to do every day between now and the election to earn the trust of Victorians,” Wilson said on Sunday.<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

Liberal insiders feared One Nation’s Darren Hercus would beat Anthony Marsh to take the seat of Nepean. (ABC News: Danielle Bonica)<\/p>\n

It’s a view shared by MPs and party strategists.<\/p>\n

But this was a by-election of no consequence, and a contest that the governing Labor party did not enter.<\/p>\n

However, as Wilson says, there are lessons.<\/p>\n

November’s state election is likely to be tough for the two major parties; this by-election has proved that.<\/p>\n

One in four voters in Nepean supported One Nation, and in some areas, such as Rosebud and Dromana, with more working-class voters, it was even higher.<\/p>\n

It’s a warning for the major parties, one that has left some party operatives “disturbed” about what might happen in November.<\/p>\n

“In Nepean, that working-class profile is geographically contained,” pollster and former Labor party strategist Kosmos Samaras said on Saturday night.<\/p>\n

“In dozens of other seats, held by Labor, the Liberals and the Nationals alike, it is far more prolific.\u00a0<\/p>\n

“Tonight is a preview of what the Victorian election in November may look like.”\"People<\/p>\n

A former Labor strategist says working-class voters have sent the major parties a warning ahead of the state election in November. (ABC News: Danielle Bonica)<\/p>\n

He warned both sides were going to lose skin, but the risk was greater for the Coalition.<\/p>\n

It makes the Liberals’s path to government even more perilous. One Nation will be a hindrance in some seats and helpful in others for the Coalition.<\/p>\n

It’s partly why Labor is ramping up its rhetoric to paint One Nation and the Coalition as allies.<\/p>\n

“The result from Nepean is crystal clear that the Liberal Party can’t govern without One Nation; they are going to be relying on One Nation and that is something Victorians can’t afford,” Premier Jacinta Allan said on Sunday.<\/p>\n

Liberals are also pleased the independent Hutchison didn’t attract more votes, especially among wealthier voters. She still secured 21.3 per cent of the primary vote and is likely to finish second after preferences.<\/p>\n

It’s another sign of a fragmented electorate: one fed up with major parties.<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

Independent Tracee Hutchison attracted more than a fifth of primary votes. (ABC News: Danielle Bonica)<\/p>\n

“They want to send the major parties a message, they want us to listen to them,” Wilson said. “I get it.”<\/p>\n

Wilson’s leadership helped stem the tide in Nepean, and she continues to make the Coalition competitive.<\/p>\n

“They have a leader that is performing well and preventing the roof from falling on top of them,” Samaras said.<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

Former Labor strategist Kosmos Samaras says the Nepean results are good news for Liberal leader Jess Wilson. (ABC News)<\/p>\n

Labor didn’t run, a decision the result vindicates.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It has a swag of its own problems to confront: the premier’s popularity levels, crime rates and the cost of living.<\/p>\n

But it is talking about positive policies now with the rollout of its budget.<\/p>\n

Liberal MPs have noted that while they are focusing on negatives and one by-election, Labor MPs are talking to their electorates about new funds and programs.<\/p>\n

In the final days of the Nepean campaign Wilson turned up the volume on the Coalition’s anger at Victoria’s historic treaty with First Peoples, which the opposition will rip up.<\/p>\n

It was a deliberate choice, and it was firmly aimed at voters considering One Nation.<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

A sign authorised by the Liberal Party at a Nepean polling booth on Saturday. (ABC News)<\/p>\n

As One Nation grows, so too will scrutiny.<\/p>\n

But highlighting problems with One Nation policies doesn’t necessarily mean voters will drop their support. Part of the appeal of Pauline Hanson’s party is that it a vote against the political establishment.<\/p>\n

Labor is happy to take on One Nation, whereas the Liberals are treading much more cautiously.<\/p>\n

Wilson on Sunday refused to comment on where they would preference One Nation in November.<\/p>\n

As the premier said, the Coalition may need One Nation’s help to change the government.<\/p>\n

Many Liberals share the sentiment that a win is a win. And sometimes winning is all that matters.<\/p>\n

This will boost the party’s confidence that it is on the right track, while also reminding the Coalition that is has lots of work to do if it is to change the government.<\/p>\n

It will require the Coalition to win at least 16 seats, without losing any, and in this new fragmented political environment all parties are on notice.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Victorians Liberals are breathing a sigh of relief. When Opposition Leader Jess Wilson was first confronted by the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4043,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3702,22,21,4919,1667,156,2309,4215,1955,5268,1491,5267],"class_list":{"0":"post-4042","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-australia","8":"tag-anthony-marsh","9":"tag-au","10":"tag-austrlia","11":"tag-coalition","12":"tag-jess-wilson","13":"tag-labor","14":"tag-liberal","15":"tag-nepean-by-election","16":"tag-one-nation","17":"tag-spring-street","18":"tag-voters","19":"tag-working-class"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4042","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4042"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4042\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4043"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4042"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4042"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4042"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}