From being a hot destination 10 years ago, Tasmania’s population growth has ground to a halt \u2014 and big changes will be needed to reverse the trend, experts say.<\/p>\n
But that may take some time.<\/p>\n
The state went through a higher-than-usual lift in population between 2016 and 2021, before it levelled off.<\/p>\n
And that influx is still being felt in the housing market.<\/p>\n
But, in theory at least, Tasmania should have enough houses.<\/p>\n
Its population was 579,100 last December, and assuming the country-wide average of 2.5 people per household<\/a>, the state would need 231,640 homes for everyone.<\/p>\n Tasmania already has 268,900 homes.<\/p>\n Rising house prices in Tasmania have led to reduced affordability. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)<\/p>\n Could portable homes help ease the housing shortage?<\/a><\/p>\n As building costs soar, some builders are seeing increased demand for smaller, cheaper homes \u2014 and\u00a0for many customers, that means portable, factory-built houses.<\/p>\n However, that does not take into consideration other factors, such as the number of homes sitting vacant.<\/p>\n Nor does it account for the 4,719 homes which are used for short-stay accommodation<\/a>.<\/p>\n There are also family holiday shacks.<\/p>\n And there is a trend for households to be smaller than 2.5 people.<\/p>\n UTAS senior lecturer in economics Maria Yanotti said the average number of bedrooms in a home in Tasmania was three to four.<\/p>\n “People want smaller houses, people are more likely to live by themselves or with a small family,” she said.<\/p>\n “So the existing stock doesn’t really match the existing demands.”<\/p>\n Maria Yanotti says the existing housing stock in Tasmania “doesn’t really match” the demands. (ABC News: Georgia Hogge)<\/p>\n There are other signs Tasmania’s housing supply is stretched.<\/p>\n The rental vacancy rate in May this year was 0.6 per cent in Hobart, 0.7 per cent in Burnie and 0.8 per cent in Launceston, according to SQM research.<\/p>\n “There is an acute shortfall of housing,” said Tim Reardon, chief economist for the Housing Industry Association (HIA).<\/p>\n “A healthy housing market has 3 to 5 per cent rental vacancies.”Living in a backyard shed and later a car<\/p>\n Another sign that the Tasmanian housing market is expensive and stretched is the 5,507 households on the waitlist for public housing.<\/p>\n The average wait for priority applicants is 89 weeks or close to two years.<\/p>\n Em Simic has been waiting for public housing for 18 months.<\/p>\n As a victim of family violence, she is on the rapid rehousing list.<\/p>\n “It’s very hard to remain hopeful,” she said.<\/p>\n Without stable accommodation, Em Simic is finding it difficult to re-enter the workforce. (ABC News: Andrew Cunningham)<\/p>\n Last winter she was living in a backyard shed with no running water.<\/p>\n “It was pretty grim,” she said.<\/p>\n After that, she was living in her car with her two dogs.<\/p>\n “It was very hard to normalise covering up the windows at night and rolling out the bedding and cuddling up with my dogs.”<\/p>\n Em Simic has been on the public housing wait list since early 2025. (ABC News: Andrew Cunningham)<\/p>\n Now, Ms Simic is living at a private women’s refuge which is warm, safe and secure.<\/p>\n But the amount she pays to live there is more than half her Jobseeker payment.<\/p>\n “Day-to-day living is very sparse. I’m very frugal, I go to community pantries that offer groceries at lower prices, go to community centres that provide free food,” she said.<\/p>\n “I eat a lot of toast, an awful lot of toast and toasted sandwiches, because bread is free.” Em Simic had to temporarily live in a backyard shed and her car, despite being on the rapid rehousing list. (ABC News: Andrew Cunningham)<\/p>\n Ms Simic is keen to retrain in community services and re-enter the workforce.<\/p>\n But she said she could not do that without first having a stable base.<\/p>\n “People who are waiting for housing are people, are humans, housing is a basic human right.”<\/p>\n On census night in 2021, 2,350 people in Tasmania said they were experiencing homelessness \u2014 an increase of 44.8 per cent from 2016.<\/p>\n Affordability<\/p>\n Like the rest of the country, rising house prices in Tasmania has led to reduced affordability.<\/p>\n According to the state treasury, in the 2016 December quarter 23.2 per cent of the family income was required to pay a mortgage.<\/p>\n In the same period in 2025 it was 41.3 per cent, and nationally it was 49.2 per cent.<\/p>\n It reflects a rise in median house values.<\/p>\n And while growth has slowed, in the past year alone Hobart home values have risen by 9.3 per cent to reach a median value of $752,760<\/a>.<\/p>\n The proportion of family income to meet median rents in Tasmania have risen from 24.9 per cent in 2016 to 26.6 per cent in 2025.<\/p>\n The supply solution<\/p>\n Improving housing supply to address affordability has become the aim of all tiers of government.<\/p>\n The federal government has announced plans to build 1.2 million new homes by 2029.<\/p>\n The Tasmanian government promised 10,000 new social and affordable homes by 2032<\/a>.<\/p>\n Damning report questions what counts as a home in 10,000-home target<\/a><\/p>\n A financial review into Tasmania’s soon-to-be-axed state housing authority says it relies too heavily on spreadsheets, and noted problems with transparency and effective decision-making.<\/p>\n By April this year, it had delivered 4,854 homes, but that figure includes crisis units and residential land.<\/p>\n In total, 2,207 social houses have been built.<\/p>\n Tasmania’s premier also recently announced the state government would underwrite the construction of modular homes, to reduce costs for would-be buyers and give lenders confidence.<\/p>\n The HIA said while modular homes were part of the solution, it would also like to see a reduction in the cost of residential land.<\/p>\n “We’ve seen the price of land rise two or three times faster than the cost of labour or building materials over the past 20 years,” said Mr Reardon.<\/p>\n What do you want to tell us? Have Your Say<\/a><\/p>\n Our best stories start with listening to yours. Tell us what Australia should know.<\/p>\n He said state governments in particular need to help with the cost of building infrastructure to bring down the cost of new subdivisions.<\/p>\n “It’s a very unsexy topic, but it’s about pumping sewage around,” he said.<\/p>\n The Tasmanian Minister for Housing, Kerry Vincent, appears open to the role of the government in delivering infrastructure to build more homes.<\/p>\n “We recognise that paving the way for future housing growth through provision of enabling infrastructure is key to tackling housing affordability, diversity and availability head on,” he said.<\/p>\n Want to have your say? Go to www.abc.net.au\/yoursay<\/a><\/p>\n![\"An](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/2780504159bf20f62973c5592ecdef7d.jpeg\")
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