A political expert says the Victorian Labor Party is following a tried and tested recipe for election disaster following the sensational axing of Jacinta Allan by her own deputy Ben Carroll this week.<\/p>\n
Mr Carroll is now tasked with steering his embattled colleagues at an election in just four months, and with the resignation of two influential frontbench MPs on Thursday, the task seems to only be getting more difficult.<\/p>\n
Every effort made by an incumbent Victorian government or hopeful opposition to throw out a leader before an election in the past two decades has resulted in an election loss, and experts say Mr Carroll will be hard pressed to rewrite the rules of history.<\/p>\n
Lessons from history<\/p>\n
Monash University political scientist Zareh Ghazarian said Labor\u2019s decision to axe their leader puts them in a \u201cvulnerable position\u201d as it tries to secure a fourth straight term on November 28.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe formula of changing leaders midstream or prior to an election doesn\u2019t seem to be a recipe for success,\u201d Dr Ghazarian said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a very difficult position for Labor to be in at the moment. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt was always going to be very hard. <\/p>\n
\u201cThey have won three elections in a row and been in power for almost 12 years, and generally parties tend to run out of puff.\u201d<\/p>\n
Dr Ghazarian pointed towards examples from past Victorian governments as historical evidence of Labor\u2019s dire position.<\/p>\n
\u201cSteve Bracks resigned in 2007 and he gave way to John Brumby, who was unable to win the 2010 election,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n
There was a change of leadership midstream, and Labor wasn\u2019t successful.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf we look at (then Liberal leader) Ted Baillieu, he became premier in 2010 and resigned in 2013. <\/p>\n
\u201cHe was succeeded by Dennis Napthine, and he couldn\u2019t win the 2014 election.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s not a successful formula for a political party.\u201d<\/p>\n
On Tuesday, News 24 panellists discussed the likelihood of Labor success during live coverage of Mr Carroll\u2019s induction as premier.<\/p>\n
The conversation shifted towards historical examples of Labor victories in the aftermath of a leadership spill.<\/p>\n
Bob Hawke\u2019s famous victory after ousting Bill Hayden as Labor leader just one month before the 1983 federal election was floated, but News 24 political editor Andrew Clennell quickly shut down any attempts to compare the two leaders.<\/p>\n
\u201cBen Carroll is not Bob Hawke,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Fresh start or false start?<\/p>\n
Dr Ghazarian said understanding whether Mr Carroll would be able to make himself comfortable as state leader largely depended on Jess Wilson\u2019s re-energised Liberal Party.<\/p>\n
\u201cPart of the story about Victorian Labor has to be linked to what\u2019s been going on in the opposition,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor a very long time, the Victorian opposition has been disunited. <\/p>\n
\u201cThere have been divisions over personnel, divisions over policy, divisions between more socially progressive and conservative Liberals, and that\u2019s all spilt out into the public arena.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey\u2019ve appeared, for many of the past few years, to be divided. <\/p>\n
\u201cIn contrast, Labor has been looking really, really organisationally strong until, of course, the last few days.\u201d<\/p>\n
Despite the Opposition having undergone its own leadership spill just eight months ago, <\/p>\n
Ms Wilson\u2019s allies were quick to capitalise on Tuesday\u2019s chaos as parliament returned for its first sitting day after the winter break.<\/p>\n
Coalition MPs took every opportunity to frame Mr Carroll as a deceptive, power-hungry usurper, filling the Legislative Assembly with jeers and insults as House Speaker Maree Edwards desperately tried to rein in the antics.<\/p>\n
Shadow Attorney-General James Newbury wasted no time, opening the day by calling Ms Allan\u2019s resignation an \u201cunprecedented knifing of a sitting premier\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe former premier was not even afforded a seat in this chamber after the coup this morning \u2026 therefore, I presume we don\u2019t have a ministry,\u201d Mr Newbury said.<\/p>\n
\u201cNo one would know because this government has fallen apart.\u201d<\/p>\n
At the beginning of question time, Ms Wilson asked Mr Carroll how Victorians could trust him when he \u201ccan\u2019t even be honest with his own daughter\u201d following comments he made about supporting Ms Allan as premier shortly before the leadership spill.<\/p>\n
Mr Carroll responded by referring to a \u201cchange of circumstances\u201d, which he also made note of seven times while fielding similar questions from journalists earlier in the day.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u2018I am not Dan Andrews. I am not Jacinta Allan\u2019<\/p>\n
During his inaugural speech as Premier, Mr Carroll deliberately distanced himself from his two Labor predecessors \u2013 Dan Andrews and Jacinta Allan.<\/p>\n
But Dr Ghazarian said he needed to \u201cstart developing rapport\u201d with Victorians if he wanted a meaningful shot at keeping his job.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe sense was that Jacinta Allan was essentially a continuation of the Dan Andrews years, and here we\u2019re seeing what seems to be more of a clean break,\u201d Dr Ghazarian said.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe know that he\u2019s in favour of a royal commission (into unions and the construction industry), for example, which was something that Jacinta Allan resisted as premier. <\/p>\n
\u201cHe has, in the past, reportedly had a stronger view on crime in Victoria, and I think those are the sorts of things that we will see him really try and talk about.<\/p>\n
\u201cNot only does it differentiate him from previous leaders, but it also aligns him more with what we\u2019re seeing in opinion polls and community expectations.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Victorian state election will be held on November 28.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A political expert says the Victorian Labor Party is following a tried and tested recipe for election 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