Using Cotality data, Canstar estimates a 14.5% peak-to-trough fall in Sydney would reduce the median house price by approximately $236,312 from its January 2026 peak, bringing it to just under $1.4 million.<\/p>\n
Melbourne could see the median drop by $127,577 to $869,116, based on a projected peak-to-trough decline of 12.8%. ANZ also forecasts sizeable falls in Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide, with Canstar modelling median house price drops of between $50,000 and $100,000 in each of those cities.<\/p>\n
Projected change to median house prices – ANZ forecast – peak to trough<\/p>\n
\n\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tCity
\n\t\t\tPeak to trough
\n\t\t\tPrice at peak
\n\t\t\tWhen
\n\t\t\tPrice at trough
\n\t\t\tChange
\n\t\t
\n\t
\n\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tSydney
\n\t\t\t-14.5%
\n\t\t\t$1,629,736
\n\t\t\tJan-26
\n\t\t\t$1,393,425
\n\t\t\t-$236,312
\n\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tMelbourne
\n\t\t\t-12.8%
\n\t\t\t$996,693
\n\t\t\tNov-25
\n\t\t\t$869,116
\n\t\t\t-$127,577
\n\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tBrisbane
\n\t\t\t-7.9%
\n\t\t\t$1,217,859
\n\t\t\tApr-26
\n\t\t\t$1,121,648
\n\t\t\t-$96,211
\n\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tAdelaide
\n\t\t\t-9.8%
\n\t\t\t$1,012,623
\n\t\t\tMay-26
\n\t\t\t$913,386
\n\t\t\t-$99,237
\n\t\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t\tPerth
\n\t\t\t-5.2%
\n\t\t\t$1,077,250
\n\t\t\tMay-26
\n\t\t\t$1,021,233
\n\t\t\t-$56,017
\n\t\t
\n\t
<\/p>\n
Source: Canstar.com.au, Cotality Home Value index, ANZ research released 11 August 2026. $ change for each capital is the predicted movement in the median house price in each capital if ANZ’s current forecast is realised. Assumes house prices change in line with dwelling forecasts.<\/p>\n
A buyer who purchased the Sydney median-priced house at the January 2026 peak with a 5% deposit has already been affected by the 5.9% year-to-date price decline<\/a> recorded by Cotality.<\/p>\n If ANZ’s full forecast is realised, that buyer could find themselves in negative equity by approximately 9% \u2014 owing an estimated $128,322 more than the property’s market value, even after 17 months of standard principal and interest repayments. A buyer with a 20% deposit would retain an estimated 8% equity under the same scenario.<\/p>\n