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<\/p>\nThe Victorian state election is less than 100 days away.<\/p>\n
After 12 years in opposition, the Liberal and National parties could finally be in a position to topple Labor on polling day, November 28.<\/p>\n
Still, recent opinion polls suggest One Nation will be a player.<\/p>\n
So, where is the Coalition looking to pick up seats?<\/p>\n
How might One Nation affect the result?<\/p>\n
And could Labor hold its ground?<\/p>\n
Loading…What is the state of play in the lower house?<\/p>\n
There are 88 seats in Victoria’s lower house, meaning a party requires 45 to govern.<\/p>\n
Labor won 56 seats at the last election. The Coalition has 29, with the Liberals holding 20 and the Nationals nine.<\/p>\n
Three Greens MPs hold the remaining seats.<\/p>\n
But after three terms in power, some Labor insiders fear the party could lose upwards of 20 seats in November.<\/p>\n
To govern on its own, the Coalition would have to hold all its existing seats and win at least another 16.<\/p>\n
This is a steep hill to climb, made even more perilous after One Nation’s appearance on the scene.<\/p>\n
A minority government, where no party reaches 45 seats, is a genuine prospect.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Ben Carroll has made crime a focus of his leadership ahead of the election. (ABC News: Danielle Bonica)<\/p>\n
Where is Labor in danger?<\/p>\n
Labor faces multiple risks: Melbourne’s west and north-western suburbs, the eastern suburbs, peri-urban communities, and the regions. The Greens are also chasing Labor in inner-city seats.<\/p>\n
After three terms in power, Labor is battling a mood for change.<\/p>\n
Melbourne’s west and north-west<\/p>\n
Labor has represented electorates in Melbourne’s outer west and north-west for generations.<\/p>\n
But first-preference votes for the party in these communities crashed at the last election, eroding Labor’s buffer.<\/p>\n
To appeal to these voters, new Premier Ben Carroll has made crime a centrepiece of his leadership since taking over last month.<\/p>\n
Sunbury, Sydenham, Melton and Yan Yean are in danger of falling to One Nation or the Coalition.<\/p>\n
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Traditional Labor seats on Melbourne’s western and north-western edge including Sunbury, Sydenham, Melton and Yan Yean are in jeopardy. (ABC News)<\/p>\n
But even the premier’s seat of Niddrie, north-west of Melbourne CBD, held with a 6.7 per cent margin, is not a sure thing.<\/p>\n
The Coalition has Mr Carroll’s electorate on a hit list of more than 30 Labor seats.<\/p>\n
Labor believes the leadership change from Jacinta Allan to Mr Carroll has given voters a reason to reconsider, particularly in the heartland.<\/p>\n
Melbourne’s east<\/p>\n
The Coalition must win back Melbourne’s eastern suburbs if it has any chance of retaking government, Redbridge pollster and former Labor strategist Kos Samaras says.<\/p>\n
Bayswater, Ashwood, Glen Waverley, Ringwood and Box Hill are in play.<\/p>\n
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Seats in Melbourne’s east such as Bayswater, Ashwood, Glen Waverley, Box Hill and Pakenham will be crucial battleground seats for the Coalition. (ABC News)<\/p>\n
Mr Samaras says there are signs the Coalition is making headway there.<\/p>\n
Labor expects to lose Pakenham on Melbourne’s suburban fringes, with Victorian One Nation leader Warren Pickering contesting this ultra-marginal seat. Crime and local infrastructure have been sore points for the government here.<\/p>\n
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Warren Pickering will lead One Nation into the Victorian state election.\u00a0 (AAP: Jay Kogler)<\/p>\n
Bass and Hastings, which stretch into rural communities south-east of Melbourne, are also held by tiny margins, and Labor is not counting on holding on.<\/p>\n
Current MPs in some of these at-risk electorates \u2014 Pakenham, Melton, Bayswater and Bass \u2014 are also retiring from parliament in November.<\/p>\n
The regions<\/p>\n
The Nationals are chasing former premier Jacinta Allan’s seat Bendigo East after voters in the overlapping federal electorate bucked the national trend and almost unseated Labor last year.<\/p>\n
Ms Allan confirmed she would not recontest the election<\/a> after 27 years as the local MP.<\/p>\n Andrew Lethlean is a publican and is the Nationals’ candidate for Bendigo East. (ABC Central Victoria: Shannon Schubert\u00a0)<\/p>\n The neighbouring seat of Bendigo West could also be in play.<\/p>\n And Labor faces a tough, crowded contest in Ripon, in Victoria’s west, which has a history of flipping.<\/p>\n One Nation is eyeing off regional seats such as Ripon, Murray Plains, Bendigo East, Bendigo West and Gippsland East. (ABC News)<\/p>\n The government’s emergency services levy has been particularly potent for the regions.<\/p>\n One Nation could win these seats, too.<\/p>\n Along with the outer-suburban ring around the city, the regions are where One Nation is likely to make the most headway.<\/p>\n What are the risks for the Coalition?<\/p>\n The Coalition is optimistic it can retake government under Liberal leader Jess Wilson.<\/p>\n But the Liberal and National parties are under threat, too.<\/p>\n Their commitment this week to ditch the VNI West transmission line project<\/a> through farmland hints at One Nation’s threat in regional communities.<\/p>\n Coalition pledge could win back farmer votes<\/a><\/p>\n West Victorian farmers, increasingly supportive of One Nation, welcome the Coalition’s announcement to scrap a controversial transmission line.<\/p>\n The Nationals believe their incumbent MPs, at least, will hold on.<\/p>\n Longstanding MPs are retiring in Murray Plains and Gippsland East.<\/p>\n Insiders argue Nationals candidates will benefit from preferences much more strongly than One Nation, which they believe would need a primary vote above 40 per cent to beat the Coalition.<\/p>\n Mr Samaras agrees.<\/p>\n He expects One Nation will pick up lower house seats, but says its vote is softening.<\/p>\n One Nation’s stated aim is to take government in Victoria but has so far announced only a handful <\/a>of lower house candidates.<\/p>\n Pauline Hanson says she’ll work with anyone to get rid of the Victorian Labor government. (ABC News)<\/p>\n Labor has sought to tie Ms Wilson to One Nation, arguing the Coalition won’t be able to reach 45 seats on its own. The opposition rejects this.<\/p>\n Research by Labor, briefed to ministers in June, claimed One Nation could take as many as 17 regional and outer-suburban seats from the Coalition.<\/p>\n Labor named six Nationals-held seats as easy One Nation gains.<\/p>\n Outer suburban Liberal seats like Rowville and Berwick could come under pressure.<\/p>\n The Liberal Party also needs to prepare for the likely loss of Prahran in inner Melbourne, after winning the seat at a by-election that Labor didn’t contest.<\/p>\n If the Greens retake the seat, the Coalition will need to gain 17 others to form a majority government.<\/p>\n Can Labor gain ground?<\/p>\n Labor knows it will go backwards this election.<\/p>\n Its defensive campaign means there are no Coalition seats in its sights.<\/p>\n But the party has been chasing a victory in Richmond, which the Greens have held since 2022.<\/p>\n Labor will also have to fend off the Greens in inner-metro seats like Northcote and Footscray, though.<\/p>\n Ellen Sandell is leader of the Victorian Greens and the state member for the seat of Melbourne. (ABC News: Danielle Bonica)<\/p>\n Integrity has been a sore point for the government in the inner city.<\/p>\n Labor now believes it can hold on here after the announcement of a royal commission<\/a> by Mr Carroll and commitment to strengthen the anti-corruption watchdog sooner.<\/p>\n![\"a](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/1787368154_532_b163ebfa0489e2d57cb907278901191c.jpeg\")
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