While a by-election in a historically safe Labor seat in Perth\u2019s southern suburbs would typically pass with little fanfare nationally, the Secret Harbour poll is different.<\/p>\n
This is the first time Labor has had to go head to head with One Nation as its primary opponent since the Pauline Hanson-led party surged to prominence, and the result is poised to show Labor\u2019s depth of resources alone is not always enough to counter that momentum. A Labor defeat here will leave party strategists in Victoria feeling even more concerned about their future.<\/p>\n
For the Liberals, meanwhile, any pleasure in a Labor defeat will be tempered by bigger questions about what the party\u2019s future path to government \u2013 and indeed, its future more broadly \u2013 looks like in a world where it is relegated to second fiddle to One Nation. A strong One Nation result will be particularly significant for federal Liberal MP \u2013 and vocal One Nation critic \u2013<\/a> Andrew Hastie, whose electorate of Canning overlaps<\/a> with most of Secret Harbour.<\/p>\n The most striking sight at the early voting centre in Port Kennedy on Friday (apart from the One Nation-branded bus that has been parked outside from 5am each day) was the number of orange-shirted One Nation volunteers handing out how-to-vote cards.<\/p>\n Mr Herdegen says the increased visibility of the party in recent months has helped remove some of the stigma that once came from publicly associating with One Nation.<\/p>\n \u201cOnce people start to see that the movement is on, then it just encourages more people to get involved,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cThere used to be a bit of hesitancy because they were vilified a little for doing that. But now, once people start to see the numbers, they see their friends, they see other people supporting the party, it gives them the confidence that they can do it too.\u201d<\/p>\n If the voters who spoke to The Australian outside the Secret Harbour pre-poll centre on Friday are anything to go by, Mr Herdegen\u2019s confidence is not misplaced. <\/p>\n More than half of those said they had voted for One Nation. For most of them, it was their first time voting for the party.<\/p>\n Neil told The Australian that after watching Senator Hanson for 30 years, he had finally decided to vote for One Nation because he was sick of Labor\u2019s \u201clies\u201d. He said the Labor governments at both state and federal level had let down too many Australians.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve got a lady living at our place, because she would\u2019ve had to live in a car,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re witnessing it, we\u2019re struggling like everybody else living week to week. It\u2019s just not easy and we\u2019re probably better off than a lot of other people.\u201d <\/p>\n Toby said he had voted One Nation after growing disillusioned with the Liberals in the years after John Howard.<\/p>\n He said federal Labor had failed to curb immigration, while Roger Cook had not done enough for the area since he became Premier.<\/p>\n \u201cThe stupid people that we\u2019ve got at the moment don\u2019t really care about other people, so why not give someone else a chance?\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cThey can\u2019t be any worse.\u201d<\/p>\n Suze said she, like her parents, had voted Labor her entire life but had only reluctantly voted for the party again this time around. <\/p>\n She said she had \u201cplenty of concerns\u201d with the performance of the state and federal governments but couldn\u2019t bring herself to vote against Labor.<\/p>\n \u201cI decided to stay with the devil we know,\u201d she said. <\/p>\n Kiera and Kerry, meanwhile, both said they had voted for the Greens. The strong representation of One Nation outside the polling station came as a shock to them.<\/p>\n \u201cI didn\u2019t realise how much orange would be here, I didn\u2019t realise how many people went for One Nation,\u201d Kerry said.<\/p>\n By-elections are historically tricky for governments, especially those that have been in power as long as Labor has in WA. While there have been some early signs of the third-term blues<\/a> creeping into Mr Cook\u2019s government, it does not carry anywhere near the same level of baggage as its Victorian counterpart and still enjoys a broadly solid standing with the electorate.<\/p>\n On paper, Secret Harbour should barely be a contest. Labor holds the seat on a margin of 11.5 per cent, has the advantage of a well-oiled party machine that has been unstoppable in the west for a decade, and has comprehensively outspent and out-fundraised its rivals.<\/p>\n Labor has raised almost $1m in disclosable donations since the start of July. One Nation has declared just $48,000.<\/p>\n Labor, however, has struggled to convert that mismatch into momentum.<\/p>\n It\u2019s a crude measure, but social media follower numbers point to a looming whitewash for One Nation.<\/p>\n Georgie Tree has 1900 followers on Facebook, less than half that of the 4500 following Mr Herdegen.<\/p>\n Even on Instagram, where the audience skews towards a younger demographic that would historically lean more towards Labor, Ms Tree has only 972 followers to Mr Herdegen\u2019s 1898.<\/p>\n Labor has known from the outset this would be a tough campaign. <\/p>\n In many ways, one insider says, One Nation is perfectly built for by-elections. Not only is there little pressure on the party to outline detailed policy \u2013 Mr Herdegen\u2019s most detailed policy commentaries have concerned immigration and bin collections, neither of which is state government responsibility \u2013 but people can show their grievance and vote for One Nation in Secret Harbour without the potential consequence of electing a One Nation government.<\/p>\n Ms Tree says the campaign has been a rollercoaster.<\/p>\n She has focused her campaign on trying to get face to face with as many voters as possible, and says future Labor candidates facing the challenge of One Nation needed to seek out that direct engagement with the community.<\/p>\n But she acknowledges her campaign has been caught up in a wave of right-wing populism that has been felt elsewhere around the world.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a global phenomenon and we\u2019re not immune to that at all, but I\u2019ve been trying to cut through that as much as possible by having conversations with people about what WA Labor is doing and what I can deliver as their local member,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n While Ms Tree spent her entire childhood and most of her adult life living in and around the electorate, she has been hounded over the fact that her current home is more than 60km away in inner-city Perth. <\/p>\n Despite being the candidate who has faced the media more than any other, Labor\u2019s decision not to let her speak at two press conferences mid-campaign \u2013 a move blamed on a tight schedule \u2013 took skin off her. <\/p>\n And her promises to deliver a train station and major hospital and freeway upgrades have also met with questions as to why Labor is committing to them only now after almost a decade in power. <\/p>\n \u201cAny government-affiliated candidate in a by-election is going to cop some heat, that\u2019s par for the course, and I think that in general the Labor Party are quite often held to a higher account,\u201d she said. <\/p>\n \u201cMinor parties haven\u2019t had their time in the sun, really, to be able to deliver on what they promise or their lack of promises. That gives them a free hit in a lot of ways because they don\u2019t have that accountability.\u201d<\/p>\n Liberal candidate Ryan Robertson, meanwhile, says Labor should be feeling \u201cvery, very nervous\u201d about the \u201ctsunami of orange\u201d he has seen in Secret Harbour during this campaign.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s obviously a huge frustration nationally with the Labor government, but then that is also seeing an influence here at the state level. And when I\u2019m speaking to people, what they\u2019re saying is that for too long now, they feel like we are the forgotten cousin of Perth,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n If indeed One Nation ends up winning Secret Harbour, it will be a result that will be heard not only in Perth but well beyond.<\/p>\n Read related topics:One Nation<\/a> Paul Garvey is an award-winning journalist with more than two decades’ experience in newsrooms around Australia and the world. He is currently the senior reporter in The Australian\u2019s WA bureau, covering politics, courts, billionaires and everything in between. He has previously written for The Wall Street Journal in New York, The Australian Financial Review in Melbourne, and for The Australian from Hong Kong before returning to his native Perth. He was the WA Journalist of the Year in 2024 and is a two-time winner of The Beck Prize for political journalism.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The by-election for the West Australian seat of Secret Harbour is still a week away, but One 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<\/a>Paul Garvey<\/a>Senior Reporter<\/p>\n