Amid doubts about the government\u2019s $2-per-week modelling, Mr Burns was asked how Treasury calculated the figure included in the May budget.<\/p>\n
\u201cI don’t have the full, I don’t have the full methodology of the Treasury modelling. We can get that for you if you like,\u201d Mr Burns said.<\/p>\n
Pressed on why he did not know the basis for the figure despite serving as Labor\u2019s Special Envoy for Housing, Mr Burns said it was a question for Treasury.<\/p>\n
\u201cWell, yeah, that’s like\u2026 that’s a question we can get from the Treasury. It’s an answer we can get from the Treasury,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
The exchange comes amid growing scrutiny of the modelling, after rental increases have already outpaced Treasury\u2019s $2-a-week estimate.<\/p>\n
PropTrack reported rents increased 3.1 per cent nationally over the three months to June 2026, equivalent to an increase of about $21 a week on typical asking rents.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Ray White head of research Vanessa Rader has also warned that changes to negative gearing could require significant adjustments in the rental market.<\/p>\n
Ray White\u2019s latest modelling echoed earlier NAB modelling which suggested rents could rise as much as 30 per cent.<\/p>\n
Ms Rader stressed the figure was not a forecast, and it could involve, for example, an 8 per cent fall in house prices combined with a 20 per cent rent increase.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe understand that all markets operate very differently and it’s probably not just rents going up at that sort of number,\u201d she told News24.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt will be both a combination of rent increasing but also some of those (housing) values coming back.\u201d<\/p>\n
![\"Rents](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/1787476232_716_f0cbdffca849388c3357d25e47350264.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n
Housing Minister Clare O\u2019Neil was asked about the Ray White modelling in parliamentary question time on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
\u201cRay White is not forecasting a 30 per cent rise in rents\u2026 how incredibly embarrassing for the opposition,\u201d Ms O\u2019Neil said.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen they came into the Parliament yesterday, they accused the National Australia Bank of saying the same thing.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd then the National Australia Bank clarified this was not a forecast and it is important to note that they do not forecast rental yields.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ray White and NAB both modelled the market changes \u2013 which were not forecasts and do not have a timeline.<\/p>\n
Ms Rader explained that the impact would vary significantly between markets, with Brisbane and Sydney likely to face a greater adjustment.<\/p>\n
\u201cEvery market has a very different profile\u2026 something like Brisbane and Sydney, for example, will see a greater shift in either of those numbers,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
\u201cEither value or rents or a combination of both or one or the other, whereas somewhere like Melbourne where the yield is a little bit higher.\u201d<\/p>\n
The warning comes as investor activity shows signs of weakening following the government\u2019s decision to restrict negative gearing on established properties.<\/p>\n
Ms Rader said investor lending had fallen 8.6 per cent in the June quarter, although the May 12 budget had not yet been in effect for a full quarter.<\/p>\n
The Albanese government\u2019s policy allows existing investment properties to retain their previous negative gearing treatment under grandfathering arrangements.<\/p>\n
However, negative gearing entitlements have been removed for existing properties since May 12, 2026.<\/p>\n
Mr Albanese has pointed to an increase in investor borrowing for new housing as evidence the policy was achieving its intended effect.<\/p>\n
Mr Albanese said there was a 27 per cent increase in investor loans for new builds and a 20 per cent increase in construction loans in the June quarter.<\/p>\n
But Ms Rader said Ray White was not yet seeing clear evidence of a significant shift into new-build investment.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe’ve only got the first quarter a lot of data through in terms of investment activity in terms of investor lending,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve seen that it’s gone down 8.6 per cent in this last June quarter. But don’t forget, the budget was the 12th of May. So, we haven’t got a full period of that yet.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Labor\u2019s Special Envoy for Housing Josh Burns has failed to explain the government\u2019s own forecast that its 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