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<\/p>\nOne Nation’s growing support will be put to the test today, as Pauline Hanson’s party goes head to head with Labor in a Western Australian by-election.<\/p>\n
The poll in Secret Harbour, a beachside suburb south of Perth, will provide the clearest indication yet of any shift in the political landscape and if One Nation can turn frustration at major parties into seats in Parliament.<\/p>\n
Who are the main candidates?<\/p>\n
Secret Harbour has long been considered a safe Labor seat and the by-election was triggered by last month’s retirement of high-profile minister Paul Papalia, who represented the electorate for almost two decades.\u00a0<\/p>\n
So it is unsurprising the party was first out of the gates with their candidate, a former staffer to federal Resources Minister Madeleine King, and more recently a lobbyist with Woodside.<\/p>\n
Georgia Tree, 34, has been leaning into her working-class roots, pointing out her dad raised her on a single wage working in the area after her mum died when she was nine.<\/p>\n
“Labor built Medicare. My Mum’s chemo would have bankrupted our family without it, and now Labor’s building a brand new hospital in Mandurah,” she said.<\/p>\n
“Dad’s apprenticeship helped him turn his life around, and now Labor’s made TAFE free.”<\/p>\n
She’s been criticised for living in Perth’s northern suburbs, rather than her prospective electorate, telling The West Australian she had tried to find a home in the area but was “not prepared to pay in excess of market value”.<\/p>\n
In 2023 she published Old Boy, a biography of her father’s life, including his struggles with heroin addiction before turning his life around in WA’s mining industry.<\/p>\n
The Liberals confirmed Ryan Robertson as their candidate on Saturday \u2013 a 35-year-old former submariner turned real estate agent and podcast host.<\/p>\n
The father of three is currently a City of Rockingham councillor, representing its Rockingham\/Safety Bay ward since last year.<\/p>\n
Mr Robertson has a similar career background to Mr Papalia, with his LinkedIn profile stating he served in the navy between 2009 and 2021, during which time he was awarded Submariner of the Year.<\/p>\n
“I feel as if the people of Secret Harbour are not quite getting heard on issues that we truly believe matter to all of us,” he said at his first press conference as a candidate.<\/p>\n
“Lots of promises, no delivery, and that’s not something that sits comfortably with me.”<\/p>\n
He said the three pillars of his campaign would be “listen, work hard, and deliver for the people of Secret Harbour”.<\/p>\n
Pushed on how he would deliver from opposition, both he and leader Basil Zempilas said the opposition could often raise issues and force the government to act.<\/p>\n
The Nationals have confirmed they won’t run in the seat, urging their supporters to back the Liberals instead.<\/p>\n
Gym owner and former champion weightlifter Luke Herdegen will be One Nation’s candidate for the by-election.<\/p>\n
His LinkedIn profile shows he has been working in the fitness space since at least mid-2019, including as a coach and manager.<\/p>\n
One Nation likes its chances of winning the by-election and has been active in attacking Labor on social media with AI-generated content that focuses on Labor’s “neglect of the seat”.<\/p>\n
“Crime is up in the suburbs with the electorate, as is homelessness. Traffic for morning commuters is getting worse,” leader Rod Caddies wrote in one post.<\/p>\n
“And despite spending billions on Metronet, they have failed to deliver the train station they promised you years and years ago.”<\/p>\n
At the 2025 election, One Nation’s candidate received 8.4 per cent of the primary vote, more than double the party’s state-wide average.<\/p>\n
The Greens have described Rhi Davies as an “active community organiser, defence spouse of many years and a local mum of three teenagers”.<\/p>\n
Concerns about the AUKUS submarine deal tying Australia to “Trump’s war machine”, the average renter in Secret Harbour spending more than 30 per cent of their income on rent and the “climate crisis” feature in her bio.<\/p>\n
“We want rents capped to give struggling families immediate relief, and we want housing built for local residents, rather than prioritising American AUKUS workers,” she said in a statement.<\/p>\n
“We want cheap, clean energy delivered by a rapid transition to renewables. We want to stop AUKUS and Westport and protect Cockburn Sound.”<\/p>\n
The Greens polled third in Secret Harbour at the 2025 election, with 8.8 per cent of the primary vote \u2014 lower than their state-wide average of 11.1 per cent.<\/p>\n
Craig Buchanan works in the office of the Legalise Cannabis party’s only MP, Brian Walker, as a research officer and senior adviser.<\/p>\n
He recently resigned from Rockingham City Council after six years of service and holds a PhD in literature from the University of Western Australia.<\/p>\n
Dr Buchanan said he will campaign for “sensible, evidence-based cannabis reform”, having credited medicinal cannabis with giving him “freedom of choice” after being diagnosed with bowel cancer two years ago.<\/p>\n
“It’s about the right to heal and function without the fear of outdated stigma or unfair legal repercussions,” he said in a statement.<\/p>\n
His policy positions include repealing driving laws that criminalise patients for driving with trace amounts of cannabis in their system if they are not impaired and protecting medicinal cannabis patients from workplace discrimination.<\/p>\n
Why is this important?<\/p>\n
Analysis by WA state political reporter Keane Bourke<\/p>\n
On paper, this by-election shouldn’t be very interesting. It’s choosing who will replace a retiring Labor veteran in an area the party has held for decades.<\/p>\n
The difference this time is One Nation. Support for the party has been surging in the east, at least according to polling, and to a lesser extent here in the west.<\/p>\n
If that’s going to translate to a win anywhere in WA, Secret Harbour would be close to the top of the list.<\/p>\n
Loading…<\/p>\n
It takes in Perth’s outer southern suburbs, with a growing population of young families moving into new housing developments.<\/p>\n
Cost of living and housing have been key concerns which many voters would be feeling acutely.<\/p>\n
Labor, who won the seat with a margin of 11.5 per cent at the last election, is also putting a strong emphasis on fighting One Nation, who are their real opponents here.<\/p>\n
People often vote differently in by-elections which won’t change the government, compared to general elections.<\/p>\n
But this poll is still being watched nationally as a sign of how much of a threat One Nation can pose to Labor, and how both it, and the Liberals, will need to shape their campaigns to account for it.<\/p>\n
What do locals think?<\/p>\n
The hairdresser has long been a place to shoot the breeze, so it’s no surprise that politics was the main topic of conversation at Emma Pender’s salon ahead of the by-election.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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Both Emma Pender (left) and her client Emma Chellew don’t plan on voting Labor today. (ABC News: Lucy Murray)<\/p>\n
When the ABC visited the Golden Bay hairdressers, many clients voiced their frustration with Labor, which held the seat for almost two decades.\u00a0<\/p>\n
“I did vote for Labor in the past, but I feel really let down by them. I hope they change and start to listen to the community a bit more,” Fabian Portese said.<\/p>\n
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Mr Portese always voted Labor but this time he’s undecided. (ABC News: Lucy Murray\u00a0)<\/p>\n
Mr Portese has yet to make up his mind about who to vote for today, but for Ms Pender the choice is clear.<\/p>\n
“I put Ryan [Liberal candidate] number one. That was purely because he was local,” the hairdresser said.<\/p>\n
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The Liberal candidate for the Secret Harbour by-election, Ryan Robertson, is a Royal Australian Navy veteran. (ABC News: Keane Bourke)<\/p>\n
“He is listening to people and he is already aware a lot of the problems.”<\/p>\n
Further along the coast, in Port Kennedy, long-time Labor voter Elaine Soltluisch is heading in a different direction.<\/p>\n
“I used to be Labor, but I am just tired of it now. This area, down south, we don’t get the attention,” she told the ABC while watching her grandkids at the skate park.<\/p>\n
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Elaine Soltluisch says she’s voting One Nation. (ABC News: Lucy Murray)<\/p>\n
“I have been here 30 years and never saw any change \u2026 it’s too late.<\/p>\n
“I’ll vote for One Nation. I am tired of watching people go homeless. Labor is not for the general public, I don’t think they’re helping anyone.”<\/p>\n
Labor has held the seat for almost 20 years, but the retirement of veteran MP Paul Papalia and growing frustration with the major parties has given One Nation an opening.<\/p>\n
Labor in ‘fight for our lives’ as by-election opens door to One Nation assault<\/a><\/p>\n Paul Papalia’s resignation for family reasons sparks a by-election in the WA minister and Labor stalwart’s southern Perth seat at a time when disgruntled voters are increasingly turning to One Nation.\u00a0<\/p>\n It remains to be seen whether Pauline Hanson’s party can get enough votes to turn this into its first ever lower house seat in Western Australia.<\/p>\n Where does the protest vote go?<\/p>\n Professor John Phillimore, director of the John Curtin Institute for Public Policy, said this by-election was a critical test for One Nation, leading into the state election in Victoria.<\/p>\n Professor John Phillimore says the nation’s eyes will be on the by-election. (ABC News: Lucy Murray\u00a0)<\/p>\n “From a Labor point of view, if the outer suburbs of Perth start falling to One Nation, that might ring some alarm bells in Victoria,” he said.<\/p>\n “For the Liberals, it is a big issue for them, these outer suburban areas are traditional swinging seat territory where if a government is going to fall, the opposition picks up those seats.”<\/p>\n Luke Herdegen is representing One Nation in the election. (ABC News: Keane Bourke)<\/p>\n “In Victoria, is the opposition picking up those seats going to be the Liberal Party or One Nation?”<\/p>\n The Secret Harbour poll is the first time this year Senator Hanson’s party has gone up against an incumbent Labor government.<\/p>\n The Australian Labor Party did not run a candidate in the Farrer by-election in New South Wales, which gave One Nation its first lower house seat in federal parliament<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n One Nation candidate David Farley (left) and party leader Pauline Hanson celebrate victory in the Farrer by-election. (AAP: Bianca de Marchi)<\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/6f9ce250be18e484fa975e72f2ec8dc9.jpeg\")
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