One Nation has edged past Labor to reclaim its title as the most popular party in Australia, despite Anthony Albanese holding his lead over Pauline Hanson as preferred prime minister. <\/p>\n
The latest Newspoll conducted by Pyxis Polling & Insights for The Australian showed One Nation climbing by one percentage point to hold 30 per cent of the primary vote, edging past Labor at 29 per cent, while the Coalition trailed behind at 19 per cent. <\/p>\n
The survey of 1243 voters was held in the five days leading up to One Nation\u2019s historic win at the Secret Harbour by-election and captured a period of internal confusion in the populist party over its net overseas migration target. <\/p>\n
But in a three-way contest, Mr Albanese held onto his lead as preferred leader with 46 per cent of support, followed by Senator Hanson on 31 per cent and Opposition Leader Angus Taylor on 23 per cent. <\/p>\n
After preferences were distributed between the Labor and One Nation leaders, Mr Albanese sustained this lead with a margin of 56 per cent to 44 per cent.<\/p>\n
However, the Australian Financial Review\/Redbridge Group\/Accent Research poll of 1006 voters – conducted across the same period as the Newspoll – found a different scenario for One Nation, showing it losing core support by three percentage points to 28 per cent. <\/p>\n
These figures showed Labor\u2019s and the Coalition\u2019s primary vote remaining unchanged at 29 per cent and 22 per cent respectively.<\/p>\n
After asking respondents how they would allocate preferences, the poll shows Labor leading One Nation on a two-party-preferred basis by 52 per cent to 48 per cent.<\/p>\n
One Nation\u2019s historic win<\/p>\n
The populist party celebrated that there was \u201cno safe Labor seat\u201d after its stunning by-election win in Western Australia, as Mr Albanese stepped up his attack to stem the growing threat. <\/p>\n
In claiming victory in Saturday\u2019s by-election in the outer Perth state electorate of Secret Harbour, One Nation\u2019s Luke Herdegen said the voters had \u201csent a message that will send shockwaves around the country\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are no safe Labor seats in this state or in this country anymore,\u201d Mr Herdegen said.<\/p>\n
\u201cNo seat is safe from the orange tsunami.\u201d<\/p>\n
But Mr Albanese narrowed his attack on the populist party in his speech to party faithful in Queensland on Sunday.<\/p>\n
\u201cParties like One Nation have no serious answers to our problems,\u201d Mr Albanese told the Queensland state Labor conference.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s obvious One Nation are not on the side of working people.<\/p>\n
\u201cEvery time they achieve any success, it leads to chaos and division.\u201d<\/p>\n
One Nation\u2019s win in Secret Harbour, that had been held by Labor for decades, served as warning that One Nation was no longer not just a \u201cprotest vote\u201d, experts say.<\/p>\n
Leader Pauline Hanson said she was \u201cabsolutely thrilled\u201d with the win and sent a message to voters across Australia. <\/p>\n
\u201cThey\u2019re wanting someone who\u2019s really going to listen to them and really go out and fight for them to change the direction this country is going in,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd I give them my solemn oath I\u2019m trying to get the right people on the floor of parliament to do that for the Australian people, to give them back our country that\u2019s been stripped away from us every which way.\u201d<\/p>\n
What\u2019s changed for One Nation<\/p>\n
On Sunday, Barnaby Joyce attributed his new party\u2019s win to what he said was a change in how voters perceived One Nation. <\/p>\n
Monash University Associate Professor of Politics Zareh Ghazarian agreed, telling NewsWire the win marked a key shift in the One Nation brand. <\/p>\n
\u201cSince the 2025 WA election, as a political force, One Nation has morphed into an organisation that voters are happy to support than ever before,\u201d Dr Ghazarian said. <\/p>\n
\u201cAnd that\u2019s I think the real concern for the major parties \u2026 It\u2019s no longer just a protest vote.\u201d <\/p>\n
ANU Associate Professor in Politics Jill Sheppard said voters had shown the major parties they were \u201cvery happy\u201d to defect from the major parties to a new viable alternative\u201d. <\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s been a really important psychological shift among a lot of voters that they don\u2019t have to vote for Labor or Liberal,\u201d Dr Sheppard said.<\/p>\n
Federal Labor MPs have downplayed the results in Secret Harbour, with Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy saying he was \u201chesitant about drawing lessons for the federal sphere\u201d while Social Services Minister Tanya Plibersek saying it was a \u201cstate election run on state issues\u201d. <\/p>\n
But RedBridge Group Director Kos Samaras warned One Nation\u2019s win showed Australians were wholly \u201crejecting a two-party system\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo it doesn\u2019t matter whether it\u2019s local government, whether it\u2019s state or federal. These Australians have a view that the established political order needs to be turned over,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n
Problems for Coalition<\/p>\n
For the Liberals in particular, the challenge presented by One Nation\u2019s success in WA was to combat public perception of its agenda, Dr Ghazarian added, amid the opposition\u2019s sinking popularity in the polls. \u201cThe factional issues that have plagued the Liberal Party, the chopping and changing of leaders, all of that has contributed to the sense that the party is unclear and unsure about its policy agenda,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Mr Samaras said the Coalition needed to step up its game. <\/p>\n
\u201cI think we\u2019ve now seen enough data, polls, election results \u2013 be it South Australia, Farrer, or Secret Harbour \u2013 to come to the conclusion that the Coalition is facing an existential crisis,\u201d Mr Samaras said. <\/p>\n
\u201cThey need to win back the trust of these voters, which won\u2019t be done via a policy announcement, or media release. <\/p>\n
\u201cThey need credible policy that makes a tangible impact on people\u2019s lives.\u201d<\/p>\n
He added, Labor, for its part, needed to continue investing the areas in which its are ranked by Australians \u201cas the party responsible for delivery, and that is in health, wages, and so on\u201d.<\/p>\n
All three experts warned against extrapolating the results of a state by-election, which are hyper-localised and fought on different issues, though Dr Ghazarian warned Secret Harbour still proved \u201cdisastrous\u201d for the major parties. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe real concern for the major parties is that One Nation is no longer just a blip,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"One Nation has edged past Labor to reclaim its title as the most popular party in Australia, 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