{"id":83887,"date":"2026-08-31T05:50:23","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T05:50:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/83887\/"},"modified":"2026-08-31T05:50:23","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T05:50:23","slug":"one-nations-perth-victory-could-be-replicated-a-dozen-times-over-in-melbourne-seats-pollster-says-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/83887\/","title":{"rendered":"One Nation\u2019s Perth victory could be replicated \u2018a dozen times over\u2019 in Melbourne seats, pollster says"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>One Nation\u2019s thumping victory in the Perth state electorate of Secret Harbour over the weekend should set off alarm bells for Labor in Victoria where the upset could be repeated \u201ca dozen times over\u201d, a leading pollster says.<\/p>\n<p>The right-wing party \u2014 which officially reclaimed its most popular spot in Monday\u2019s Newspoll \u2014 won a seat from Labor for the first time with a massive 17.5 per cent swing in Saturday\u2019s WA state by-election in the outer-Perth electorate.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"poster-img\" src=\"https:\/\/content.api.news\/v3\/images\/bin\/4994f9cdebe7e84256af66bc7403d30d\" data-sctrack=\"op-poster-img\" alt=\"Premier Ben Carroll tight-lipped on future of Dan statue\" fetchpriority=\"high\"\/><\/p>\n<p>MORE: <a class=\"body-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.com.au\/news\/one-nation-leader-pauline-hanson-lands-huge-payday\/?campaignType=external&amp;campaignChannel=syndication&amp;campaignName=ncacont&amp;campaignContent=&amp;campaignSource=newscomau&amp;campaignPlacement=realestatemodule\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"www.realestate.com.au\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Pauline Hanson secret move lands her $580k <\/a><\/p>\n<p>In claiming victory, One Nation\u2019s Luke Herdegen said the voters had \u201csent a message that will send shockwaves around the country\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNo seat is safe from the orange tsunami,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>RedBridge director and former Labor strategist <a class=\"body-link\" href=\"https:\/\/redbridgeintel.substack.com\/p\/the-seat-one-nation-won-in-perth?r=23e0ln&amp;utm_campaign=post&amp;utm_medium=web&amp;utm_id=97758_v0_s00_e0_tv1_a1dennhb8khx1w\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Kos Samaras<\/a> said Saturday\u2019s rebuke of the Cook government came despite WA Labor facing nothing like the headwinds facing its Victorian counterpart.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe result should worry Labor in Perth\u2019s outer suburbs,\u201d Mr Samaras wrote.<\/p>\n<p>MORE: <a class=\"body-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.realestate.com.au\/news\/pauline-hanson-reveals-plan-to-cap-negative-gearing-at-just-two-properties\/?campaignType=external&amp;campaignChannel=syndication&amp;campaignName=ncacont&amp;campaignContent=&amp;campaignSource=newscomau&amp;campaignPlacement=realestatemodule\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"www.realestate.com.au\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Proof Pauline\u2019s property plan makes sense<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt should worry Victorian Labor more. Unless something changes, a swag of Melbourne seats with the same profile as Secret Harbour will go the same way.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The pollster said Secret Harbour was outer urban but not diverse, ranking fourth out of 59 electorates for British or Australian ancestry, with just under 30 per cent born overseas and those overwhelmingly from England, New Zealand and South Africa.<\/p>\n<p>Chinese and Indian ancestry are under 1 per cent each.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt is a seat of young working families, far more vocational qualifications than degrees, and average incomes despite high workforce participation,\u201d Mr Samaras wrote.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMortgage belt, trades, coastal, Anglo. That is the seat One Nation just took off a popular third-term government.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In Melbourne, that splits the outer ring into two very different contests \u2014 the \u201cdiverse growth corridors\u201d of the west and north, and the south east around Dandenong and Narre Warren, versus the outer and peri-urban seats where \u201cthat diversity is thin\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cGiven the current mood towards Labor in Victoria, we can almost safely call them lost,\u201d Mr Samaras wrote.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThose seats are recognisable. Along the bay and the Peninsula: Frankston and Carrum. At the Anglo end of the south east corridor rather than the Dandenong end: Pakenham and Bass. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cFurthermore, beyond the metropolitan boundary in seats that share Secret Harbour\u2019s mix of tradies, young families and long commutes: Lara and Bellarine around Geelong, Eureka and Wendouree in Ballarat, Bendigo East and Bendigo West, and Macedon.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cCranbourne is the seat to watch, because it sits across both categories. Its northern end is diverse and behaves like Narre Warren. Its southern estates towards Clyde and Cranbourne East look like Secret Harbour. On the numbers it reads as more insulated than Pakenham or Bass. On the ground, that insulation is concentrated in one half of the seat, and the other half is exactly the territory One Nation just won in Perth.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThese are seats Labor has treated as heartland for a generation. Secret Harbour was heartland too.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Speaking to news.com.au on Monday, Mr Samaras said a number of NSW Labor electorates were facing the Secret Harbour treatment in outer western Sydney and up through the Hunter and Central Coast.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s Cessnock, it\u2019s Penrith, it\u2019s Camden,\u201d he said. \u201cYou could probably see half a dozen seats where Labor will be under pressure from One Nation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>However, there were \u201ccountless\u201d more Liberal and Nationals seats facing a One Nation wipeout.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere will be an outsized impact on the Nats and Libs in rural and regional NSW because of just how poorly the NSW Coalition is travelling,\u201d Mr Samaras said.<\/p>\n<p>He added he was not surprised by Saturday\u2019s result, saying it was \u201cabsolute prime territory for One Nation\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOuter suburb, higher levels of TAFE and vocational qualifications, it\u2019s the second least diverse electorate in the entire state,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c[Even though] the Cook government is not unpopular and the WA economy is travelling better than anywhere else &#8230; clearly that didn\u2019t matter.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>It comes as One Nation <a class=\"body-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.news.com.au\/finance\/culture\/inside-parliament\/one-nations-latest-electoral-victory-shows-the-major-parties-should-be-concerned-experts\/news-story\/a4242b775d4875a45aa9d387e9720f2f\" target=\"_self\" data-tgev=\"event119\" data-tgev-container=\"bodylink\" data-tgev-order=\"a4242b775d4875a45aa9d387e9720f2f\" data-tgev-label=\"finance\" data-tgev-metric=\"ev\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">edges past<\/a> Labor to reclaim its title as the most popular party in Australia, despite Anthony Albanese holding his lead over Pauline Hanson as preferred prime minister.<\/p>\n<p>The latest Newspoll conducted by Pyxis Polling &amp; Insights for The Australian showed One Nation climbing by 1 percentage point to hold 30 per cent of the primary vote, edging past Labor at 29 per cent, while the Coalition trailed behind at 19 per cent.<\/p>\n<p>The survey of 1243 voters was held in the five days leading up to One Nation\u2019s historic win at the Secret Harbour by-election and captured a period of <a class=\"body-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.news.com.au\/finance\/work\/at-work\/barnaby-joyces-palm-worker-claim-fuels-confusion-over-one-nation-target\/news-story\/b40c63f29ebd6baccc437d0317085a0c\" target=\"_self\" data-tgev=\"event119\" data-tgev-container=\"bodylink\" data-tgev-order=\"b40c63f29ebd6baccc437d0317085a0c\" data-tgev-label=\"finance\" data-tgev-metric=\"ev\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">internal confusion<\/a> in the populist party over its net overseas migration target.<\/p>\n<p>But in a three-way contest, Mr Albanese held onto his lead as preferred leader with 46 per cent of support, followed by Senator Hanson on 31 per cent and Opposition Leader Angus Taylor on 23 per cent.<\/p>\n<p>After preferences were distributed between the Labor and One Nation leaders, Mr Albanese sustained this lead with a margin of 56 per cent to 44 per cent.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking to supporters on Saturday, Mr Herdegen said the political landscape in WA had been changed forever.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere are no safe Labor seats in this state or in this country anymore,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c[The voters have] certainly sent a message I think to Canberra as well, and to Anthony Albanese, that they\u2019re unhappy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile Senator Hanson said she was thrilled with the result.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis is a clear message to Anthony Albanese,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPeople are turning to One Nation hoping, and it\u2019s all about hope. They want hope. We\u2019re really out there winning seats.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThey\u2019re wanting someone who\u2019s really going to listen to them and really go out and fight for them to change the direction this country is going in.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAnd I give them my solemn oath I\u2019m trying to get the right people on the floor of parliament to do that for the Australian people, to give them back our country that\u2019s been stripped away from us every which way.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In a National Press Club address in June, Pauline Hanson outlined party policies such as winding back paid parental leave \u2013 which she later walked back \u2013 cutting worker entitlements, and rejecting the policy of multiculturalism.<\/p>\n<p>A month later, she labelled domestic violence a \u201ctwo-way street\u201d and urged women \u201cnot to put up with it\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>On Sunday, the Prime Minister declared that Australians \u201cowe it to history\u201d to defeat One Nation in a scathing attack on the party\u2019s credibility among voters.<\/p>\n<p>Addressing the Labor Queensland conference on Sunday, Mr Albanese warned that Senator Hanson\u2019s party would say \u201canything\u201d to win votes, including bending facts and turning \u201cAustralian against Australian\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>He also said Labor has a duty to defeat One Nation.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAcross the world, hard-right populists are on the march. Peddling politics that is dangerous, divisive and downright dishonest,\u201d Mr Albanese said.<\/p>\n<p> \u2014 with NewsWire<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"One Nation\u2019s thumping victory in the Perth state electorate of Secret Harbour over the weekend should set 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