A pollster and political strategist is tipping a Coalition majority victory against a \u201cdeeply unpopular\u201d Labor government in Victoria\u2019s November election. <\/p>\n
The huge call from Tony Barry, Director Corporate Affairs and Communications at Redbridge Group, comes as Labor heads into the election with an 11-seat buffer in the lower house, meaning they could drop from 56 to 45 seats and still govern in their own right.<\/p>\n
Even that advantage would not be enough for the scandal-plagued government, according to Mr Barry. <\/p>\n
\u201cAn important factor which didn\u2019t exist in WA or other contests we\u2019ve seen, like South Australia, is the incumbent government is deeply, deeply unpopular,\u201d Mr Barry told news.com.au.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe electorate want change. Now, One Nation represents change, and the Liberal party is saying they represent change as well.\u201d<\/p>\n
Mr Barry said it was very difficult to predict November\u2019s result, due to fragmented voting patterns and an unprecedented surge in popularity for Pauline Hanson\u2019s One Nation party.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve got no historical data on this, because One Nation has never been so competitive.\u201d<\/p>\n
However, he was able to identify seats across the state that he expected Labor to lose to the Liberals and One Nation; resulting in a Coalition victory that would make Opposition leader Jess Wilson the Victorian premier. <\/p>\n
Labor seats swinging to One Nation, Liberals<\/p>\n
Mr Barry said middle class, aspirational suburbs in eastern Melbourne that Labor had picked up in the 2022 election – Bentleigh, Box Hill, Ringwood, Glen Waverley, Bayswater, Ashwood – were turning back to the Coalition. <\/p>\n
\u201cProblematically for the Labor Party, a lot of eastern suburbs seats which were traditionally Liberal heartland are all swinging back hard to the Liberal party,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n
Furthermore, there were \u201ca bunch of seats that Labor will lose to One Nation, just like we saw in the (WA) by-election\u201d.<\/p>\n
Mr Barry said there was a \u201cvery strong chance (One Nation) will pick up seats\u201d, increasing their current presence of just one seat in the lower house. <\/p>\n
The electorates he expected One Nation to poach from Labor included mostly regional seats like Ripon, Hastings, Bass, Pakenham, Eureka and Yan Yean.<\/p>\n
He described the Gippsland region, which contains several lower house seats, as \u201cprobably the epicentre of the One Nation vote, (due to) economic insecurity\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Labor government are closing down the coal-fired power stations; they shut down the forestry industry, and they haven\u2019t replaced it with anything,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
The orange wave went far beyond the party\u2019s anti-mass-immigration platform.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor about 15 per cent of One Nation voters, they self-report immigration as their key consideration. But for most, they\u2019re looking for an anti-establishment party. It\u2019s a rejection of the two-party system,\u201d Mr Barry said.<\/p>\n
Labor left reeling after \u2018catastrophic week\u2019<\/p>\n
Despite One Nation\u2019s rise in Victoria, Mr Barry thought the party would likely end up in the crossbenches, with the Coalition not requiring them to govern. <\/p>\n
\u201cI think the Coalition will win majority. I think the chances of Labor holding government are slight,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey still can – they\u2019ve got 11 seats and they\u2019re still a majority – but I think as we get closer to the election… fear of Labor sneaking in on preferences will drive a lot of voters to voting one Coalition. And I just think all of the momentum is with the Coalition at the moment. Labor had a catastrophic week last week with the secret tax.\u201d<\/p>\n
He was referring to revelations late last month that the party had introduced a secret tax on all public transport users years ago, to bankroll Melbourne\u2019s Suburban Rail Loop. <\/p>\n
The state\u2019s new Labor premier, Ben Carroll, scrapped the tax, known as the Rail Improvement Charge, last week after it was exposed by the Victorian Auditor-General\u2019s Office.<\/p>\n
The tax had been devised by Daniel Andrews in 2021 and implemented under Jacinta Allan in late 2024, when Mr Carroll was deputy premier.<\/p>\n
It would have raised $8 billion by 2062 despite Victorians having no idea they were paying it. <\/p>\n
\u201cThings are not going very well for Labor,\u201d Mr Barry said of the scandal. <\/p>\n
\u201cThey\u2019ve got 89 days. It\u2019s pretty tough to turn momentum around; it can be done, but my sense is the Coalition will scrape enough together to get into majority.\u201d<\/p>\n
He said voters were still assessing Mr Carroll, who had made a \u201cdeliberate and calculating\u201d attempt to differentiate himself from Mr Andrews and Ms Allan, though he had been \u201csitting around the cabinet table\u201d when unpopular decisions were taken under those previous leaders. <\/p>\n
Opposition leader Jess Wilson said last month the Coalition could win the election without support or a preference deal from One Nation.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m running to form majority government,\u201d Ms Wilson told the ABC.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m running to save this state; it\u2019s a state that\u2019s on its knees and that\u2019s certainly what I hear from Victorians every single day.\u201d<\/p>\n
PM vows, \u2018we must defeat them\u2019<\/p>\n
Mr Barry\u2019s call comes after One Nation won a seat from Labor for the first time with a massive 17.5 per cent swing in the Western Australian state by-election at the weekend.<\/p>\n
Speaking after the historic by-election win in the outer Perth state electorate of Secret Harbour, One Nation\u2019s Luke Herdegen said the voters had \u201csent a message that will send shockwaves around the country\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cNo seat is safe from the orange tsunami… There are no safe Labor seats in this state or in this country anymore.\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
After his party\u2019s defeat, Anthony Albanese issued a rallying cry to Labor delegates in Queensland<\/a>, arguing that Australians \u201cowe it to history\u201d to defeat right-wing populist parties like One Nation.<\/p>\n \u201cAcross the world, hard-right populists are on the march,\u201d Mr Albanese said in Brisbane.<\/p>\n \u201cPeddling politics that is dangerous, divisive, and downright dishonest. We simply must defeat them. We owe it to history.\u201d<\/p>\n Senator Hanson returned fire over the Prime Minister\u2019s claim that One Nation was \u201cdangerous,\u201d accusing him of inciting political violence.<\/p>\n Read related topics:Melbourne<\/a>Pauline Hanson<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A pollster and political strategist is tipping a Coalition majority victory against a \u201cdeeply unpopular\u201d Labor government 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