“Talking to people last night in the western suburbs of Sydney, they’re quite at home with the idea of One Nation being a dominant force in Western Sydney \u2014 absolutely 100 per cent on board with the idea,” Mr Joyce told Radio National Breakfast.<\/p>\n
Mr Joyce said opinion polling showing a rise in support for One Nation had been “validated” by the March South Australian state election result, in which it achieved its best electoral result anywhere in the country in nearly 30 years, and Farrer by-election.<\/p>\n
The former Nationals leader turned One Nation recruit said the potential candidates for Western Sydney were first and second-generation Australians.<\/p>\n
![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/85d7dfc41317442e9a0cf484cc05f34d.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n
One Nation removed the Coalition”s stronghold in Farrer. (AAP: Bianca De Marchi)<\/p>\n
Director at pollster Redbridge Tony Barry called Mr Joyce a “great media performer” who was being a “little bit ambitious” in his outlook.<\/p>\n
However, he said, the situation could change going forward.<\/p>\n
“There are preconditions there that might see One Nation perform very well in two years’ time,” he said.<\/p>\n
“Some of those preconditions that match the One Nation voter profile are; those experiencing economic stress and insecurity, those who are self-employed \u2014 there’s a lot of people in those western suburbs who are self-employed \u2014 Gen X and Boomers.<\/p>\n
“With Gen X men, 35 per cent are supporting One Nation at the moment.”<\/p>\n
Another factor that could impact One Nation’s fortunes, he added, was the enormous change happening in the region, like the redevelopment in Liverpool.<\/p>\n
There are four seats, according to Mr Barry, where One Nation could stand a chance.<\/p>\n
“Lindsay, which is around Penrith, Macarthur, Macquarie and Greenway, are four seats that on a sunny day One Nation could win.<\/p>\n
“These preconditions are certainly there right now that One Nation can tap into but I think it’s premature to say that One Nation will clean up a lot of seats in the western suburbs.”![\"Liverpool](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/dd03c9604f125c1190ab06ff357b790e.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n
Liverpool is among the many areas in Sydney’s west under going change which could impact how people vote. (ABC News: Nandini Dhir)<\/p>\n
Adding that with an impending economic recession, it comes with enormous risk to say what the electorate would look like two years from now.<\/p>\n
“We just don’t know how that is going to impact voters in terms of their anxieties and who they see best represents the change they’re looking for.<\/p>\n
“It’s quite possible that in those sort of circumstances they’ll stick with what they know.”<\/p>\n
Liverpool Mayor Ned Mannoun cast doubt on One Nation’s broader electoral appeal in Western Sydney.<\/p>\n
The Liberal Party member said the minor party’s anti-immigration policies would not translate as well in metropolitan areas.<\/p>\n
“Everybody knows that if you start putting the brakes on migration, you’re going to start paying $10 for a cup of coffee, $35 for an avocado on toast because there’s going to be no hospitality workers. The economy is going to struggle if you do this,” he said.<\/p>\n
Minns warns of ‘big change for NSW politics’<\/p>\n
NSW Premier Chris Minns said the weekend’s result demonstrated there would be a “lot of people” that supported One Nation and “under pressure” in some Labor seats, with voters tempted by alternatives.<\/p>\n
Mr Minns said Labor would not be preferencing One Nation in next year’s state election, and they would instead try to “win back” disillusioned Labor voters.<\/p>\n
“Look, I don’t think it’s enough to say ‘We’re coming’, you’ve got to deliver the policies,” Mr Minns said.<\/p>\n
“You have to explain to the public in Western Sydney how you’re going to make life better and not have us all just ripping each other apart in a divisive political campaign.”<\/p>\n
He called on the state Coalition to say whether it would preference One Nation in the upcoming state election, as the party did at last weekend’s by-election.<\/p>\n
![\"nsw](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/fd23666c63d6ec7ce5214b770d88c60a.jpeg\")
<\/p>\n
Mr Minns has called on the NSW Coalition to say whether they would be preferencing One Nation at next year’s state election. (ABC News)<\/p>\n
Mr Minns said Liberal leaders had fought against One Nation’s values for decades, until the Farrer by-election.<\/p>\n
“They thought they’d be bad for both the state and the country, everyone from John Howard, Peter Costello, Peter Collins, Kerry Chikarovski, John Brogden, and if there’s going to be a change to those arrangements, that’s a big change for NSW politics.”<\/p>\n
Federal Shadow Treasurer Tim Wilson did not rule out a future coalition with One Nation on ABC’s Insiders program on Sunday \u2014 something he said on Monday he would “never, ever, ever” support.<\/p>\n
Mr Minns said a Liberal, National, and One Nation coalition “would be chaos” \u2014 a notion NSW Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane dismissed as “a fantasy land”.<\/p>\n
Ms Sloane accused Mr Minns of being worried that \u00a0One Nation was coming for their seats and the Liberal Party was “not thinking” about preferencing the party at next year’s election.<\/p>\n
“We’re focused on policies that would support our state \u2026 Labor’s obsessed with preference deals.”<\/p>\n
She said there were “unique circumstances” in Farrer, but she would be listening to the messages voters sent the Coalition, which had held the seat for decades.<\/p>\n
“I’ll be listening to them, I won’t be demonising them,” she said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A former Liberal Party strategist has played down One Nation’s chances of sweeping Western Sydney seats at the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9083,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[4918,1557,10402,10403,2565,10407,10405,10406,1955,247,10404],"class_list":["post-9082","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-sydney","tag-barnaby-joyce","tag-chris-minns","tag-farrar-by-election","tag-house-of-representatives","tag-kellie-sloane","tag-liverpool-mayor-ned-mannoun","tag-nsw-labor","tag-nsw-liberals","tag-one-nation","tag-sydney","tag-tony-barry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9082","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9082"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9082\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9083"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9082"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9082"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/australia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9082"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}