Might we have seen the most dramatic end to a group at this year’s World Cup?
Going into the final round of games in Group G, any team could still have qualified, and three could have topped the group.
This was the group containing Belgium, Egypt, Iran and New Zealand, in the order it eventually finished, but it wasn’t without drama and constant change in standings during the final half an hour.
Bear with me here, as things got complicated, but let’s take a look at how the group table changed several times, why an Iran player was wearing sunglasses, and what the final results mean for each team.
Before New Zealand vs Belgium and Egypt vs Iran had kicked off, this is how things looked.
Group G standings after two games
PWDLGDGoalsPts
Egypt
2
1
1
0
2
4:2
4
Iran
2
0
2
0
0
2:2
2
Belgium
2
0
2
0
0
1:1
2
New Zealand
2
0
1
1
-2
3:5
1
New Zealand may have trailed behind on one point and minus-two goal difference (GD), but still could have qualified over Belgium with a win.
If Egypt won, they would have topped the group. If they drew, Belgium had the chance to overtake them if they beat New Zealand by three goals or more (with goals scored also a factor, more on this later), but Egypt would still qualify in second place. Iran and New Zealand were searching for wins in the hope of confirming qualification to the knockouts.
By half-time in the games, Belgium were 1-0 up after Leandro Trossard’s first goal, and Egypt had scored in the fifth minute before Iran equalised less than 10 minutes later. With Belgium winning by one and Egypt drawing, this meant Egypt remained top on GD.
Group G standings at HT of game three
PWDLGDGoalsPts
Egypt
3
1
2
0
2
5:3
5
Belgium
3
1
2
0
1
3:2
5
Iran
3
0
3
0
0
3:3
3
New Zealand
3
0
1
2
-3
3:6
1
So far, so straightforward. Then the real drama happened.
In the 66th minute, Belgium went 3-0 up after Kevin De Bruyne added to Trossard’s double. This moved them to the top of the group for the first time on the day, with a superior GD (plus-three to plus-two).
Making matters more nervous for Egypt fans, Mohamed Salah was substituted before the hour mark despite chasing Egypt’s scoring record, just one goal behind his manager, Hossam Hassan (who we aren’t accusing of wanting to retain his record).
Before Belgium went three goals up and GD was equal, Egypt were still top because, after head-to-head record (Egypt and Belgium drew 1-1) and GD, the deciding tie-breaker is goals scored, and Egypt had scored five to Belgium’s three (at 2-0 up).
In the 84th minute, there was cause for celebration in Seattle, where Egypt were playing Iran, as Elijah Just pulled a goal back for New Zealand, making it 3-1, and brought Belgium back to equal GD but below Egypt on goals scored (now five to four).
Just two minutes later, Belgium were top of the group again after Romelo Lukaku scored a header moments after coming on as a substitute.
Group G standings after Lukaku’s goal
PWDLGDGoalsPts
Belgium
3
1
2
0
3
5:2
5
Egypt
3
1
2
0
2
5:3
5
Iran
3
0
3
0
0
3:3
3
New Zealand
3
0
1
2
-5
4:9
1
Another goal for Belgium from Alexis Saelemaekers in added time took them to a 5-1 victory and two goals ahead on GD.
But there were bigger concerns for Egypt, who thought they were dropping from first all the way to third. Iran’s Shoja Khalilzadeh seemed to have taken advantage of Egypt goalkeeper Mostafa Shobeir’s flapping from a long free kick to score an added-time winner and confirm Iran’s place in the knockouts for the first time.
The team broke out into emotional celebrations, piling on top of each other on the sidelines and kissing Khalilzadeh’s face, believing they’d made history.
After escaping the pile-on, Khalilzadeh posed in front of cameras with some pixel meme sunglasses in celebration.
But the moment was taken away from them after a VAR check confirmed Khalilzadeh was offside by inches.
From the image below, you can see this is because to be onside, there must be two opposition players between an attacker and the goal when the ball is played to them, but as Egypt’s goalkeeper Shobeir advanced beyond the attacker, Khalilzadeh was marginally ahead of all but one Egyptian player.
The line drawn shows how marginally Khalilzadeh was beyond the second-to-last defender before he pounced on the loose ball in the box.
Being in the 96th minute, you’d think that would be the end of that, but no, Iran had another golden opportunity. Saeid Ezatolahi hit the crossbar with a header from point-blank range, as seen in the picture below.
In the end, Egypt escaped with a draw. In the round of 32, for topping the group, Belgium are likely to face either South Korea (44 per cent) or Senegal (33 per cent), while Egypt will play Australia after they progressed from the World Cup group stage for the first time. New Zealand were eliminated.
Iran players fell to the ground after the final whistle, knowing they were so close to a win that would have meant an automatic spot in the knockouts in second place. But all hope is not lost. They now face a wait to see if they will progress as one of the top eight third-place teams on three points with a GD of zero.
The Athletic’s live forecast model gives them a 92 per cent chance of going through, to face Switzerland in the next round.
For Iran to be eliminated, it would need Algeria and Austria to draw in Group J, sending both through, DR Congo to beat Uzbekistan, and Croatia to get at least a point against Ghana.