The EU enlargement debate is increasingly shaped by narratives that deepen uncertainty among candidate countries. Does the EU really want the Balkan states, are the Balkans \u201cEuropean\u201d? Russia, China, nationalist parties, disinformation, and domestic elites who use the frustration of the long wait to push their narratives also come into play.<\/p>\n
The EU-Western Balkans summit in Tivat showed that the enlargement of the European family is once again a hot topic in Brussels. For years, Balkan countries have heard promises without a clear deadline, but now the EU is talking about “momentum”.<\/p>\n
Although a single “Brussels intention” cannot be pinpointed with certainty, as that expression is a metonym for a complex European system composed of institutions, member states, and political actors with different interests, the rhetoric of EU leaders nevertheless shows that enlargement is once again being treated as a geopolitical priority.<\/p>\n
The European Commission has said Montenegro’s membership by 2028 is “within reach,” while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the EU must show it is capable and ready to accept new members. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, for her part, called for the enlargement process to become faster and more credible.<\/p>\n
Compromise with “gradual integration”<\/p>\n
Germany and France previously issued a joint document proposing a compromise solution, a model in which candidate countries would receive some of the benefits of membership before formally becoming members. This would reduce the uncertainty that has plagued the accession process for years.<\/p>\n
The Franco-German idea is to implement a \u201cgradual integration\u201d of the Balkan countries that are not part of the EU. Instead of candidates waiting years before receiving the full package, they could gain access to parts of the EU market, European programs and certain institutional formats sooner, depending on the reforms they deliver.<\/p>\n
This means that for the Balkans, membership no longer has to be a distant prize, but the EU could create a \u201cstaircase\u201d to integration. The stronger the rule of law, the more European benefits a candidate country will receive, the more it aligns with Brussels, the greater access it will have to the European system.<\/p>\n
Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama said in Tivat that enlargement needs a “political boom” beyond technical procedures, something that well describes the crisis of the current process, which is reduced to chapters, reports and bureaucratic language, while the public is losing faith that the countries are on the right path to joining the EU.<\/p>\n
The war in Ukraine weighs heavily on Brussels<\/p>\n
However, the pressure from the war in Ukraine is reinforcing the European \u201cimpulse,\u201d or fear that the Balkans could remain a buffer zone in which powers like Russia and China exert influence. In the context of Kiev, a change of government in Hungary could accelerate the process of Ukraine\u2019s accession to the EU, as part of the EU\u2019s broader attempt to project political influence eastward and limit Russia\u2019s space for action.<\/p>\n
In the case of the Western Balkans, Montenegro and Albania may be useful as examples that this process is not an empty promise, but works. Montenegro, for example, is a small country, a NATO member, strongly pro-European and institutionally the most advanced in the negotiations, according to Brussels\u2019 assessment. For the EU, Montenegro\u2019s accession would be proof that the process works, without a huge demographic, financial or political blow to the Union.<\/p>\n