Griffin Wong gives his best bet, pick and prediction for Sunday\u2019s FIFA World Cup match between Belgium and Iran.<\/p>\n
Through one day of matches, Group G is any team\u2019s to win or lose. Belgium drew with Egypt and Iran drew with New Zealand on the opening day, leaving all four teams knotted on one point apiece. Belgium and Iran looked the strongest of the teams overall, so their 3 p.m. ET (12 p.m. local) match at Los Angeles Stadium on Sunday could end up deciding the group.<\/p>\n
If either team secures all three points, it would be all-but-assured to advance, regardless of what happens in the New Zealand-Egypt match.<\/p>\n
The Red Devils<\/a> are -225 favorites<\/a> to claim all three points at DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a>, and Team Melli are +650. There are +360 odds that the teams will share the spoils.<\/p>\n Below, I\u2019ll break down this critical showdown and provide my favorite bet.<\/p>\n Belgium vs. Iran Best Bet:<\/p>\n Correct Score (Bands): Belgium to Score in Both Halves (+125): Iran had a pretty cohesive defensive display against New Zealand, but it was exploited once in transition and didn\u2019t complete its passes at a high enough rate. Belgium likes to press and has an aggressive attack, which should put Team Melli on their back feet.<\/p>\n Belgium vs. Iran prediction, pick<\/p>\n On Matchday 1, both teams drew against weaker opponents, and Iran effectively wasted home-field advantage in Los Angeles, which has the largest concentration of Iranians outside the country. Given each country\u2019s pedigree and expectations, Belgium\u2019s performance was probably more disappointing; after all, the Red Devils finished third in the tournament in 2018. While Team Melli controlled most of the momentum during the second half against New Zealand, Belgium and the Pharaohs played out a pretty back-and-forth affair. Both teams could\u2019ve felt they deserved all three points, but especially late on, Iran came closer to making it happen. They had a goal ruled out for offsides that would\u2019ve given them the group lead right before the end of the first half.<\/p>\n The Red Devils still have some big names on their roster. Kevin De Bruyne had a decent, even if injury-riddled, season for Napoli, and his club teammate Romelu Lukaku made a big impact after coming on, helping create the equalizing own goal. Additionally, Jeremy Doku is a regular starter for Manchester City<\/a> and operates with terrifying pace, and he\u2019s bound to do better than his performance against Egypt (one off-target shot). Belgium left plenty of opportunities on the table, putting only three of its 15 shots on target and getting unlucky to hit the post once, but its shots were merely of average quality, with only nine coming from within the box. The Red Devils weren\u2019t perfect in defense; while Thibaut Courtois couldn\u2019t have been reasonably expected to stop Emam Ashour\u2019s rocket, they allowed 71.43% of the Pharaohs\u2019 shots to come from within the box and won fewer than half of their ground duels. They also allowed among the most touches in the box and committed among the most fouls. Maxim De Cuyper and Timothy Castagne, their top two left-backs, are both on yellow cards, so they\u2019ll have to be careful to ward off a suspension. Belgium should still be expected to win, especially with the still-elite Courtois in between the sticks, but it\u2019ll have to play more cleanly.<\/p>\n Team Melli started slowly, giving up a wonderful goal to New Zealand\u2019s Elijah Just in just the seventh minute, but they were the better team for most of the evening. Iran had an impressively well-rounded attack, as it was defender Ramin Rezaeian who won Man of the Match honors by scoring the opener and later assisting Mohammad Mohebi\u2019s equalizer. Team Melli still has Medhi Taremi, who still smashes home goals for fun in the Greek Super League, and despite a quiet effort on Taremi\u2019s part against the All Whites, he automatically gives Iran a threat at goal whenever he\u2019s on the pitch. It managed 1.50 expected goals and can reasonably expect to get more than four of their 17 shots on target on Sunday. Team Melli definitely could\u2019ve done better with their distribution, as they completed passes at among the lowest rates, but it wasn\u2019t a bad attacking performance overall. Iran didn\u2019t do a bad job defensively, either, allowing 1.24 expected goals and winning a majority of both its ground and aerial duels, though like Belgium, it allowed too many shots in the box. It did force a lot of high turnovers, but it didn\u2019t capitalize on those opportunities, turning just one into a shot. Team Melli will have to be more opportunistic if they want to pull off the upset.<\/p>\n The Red Devils should win this match because they press at among the highest rates, and Team Melli\u2019s distribution was sloppy. Belgium also has a pretty aggressive attacking approach, sending its passes forward at an above-average rate, and New Zealand\u2019s most dangerous chances came in transition. Furthermore, Iran\u2019s crosses might not be as effective, given that the Red Devils have the fourth-tallest roster in the competition. Team Melli\u2019s cohesion in the defense and the pro-Iran crowd should keep them in the match, but in the end, Belgium presents a bad matchup. The Red Devils should score once on either side of halftime to secure the critical three points.<\/p>\n Best Bet: Correct Score (Bands): Belgium to Score in Both Halves (+125)<\/a><\/p>\n Additional World Cup Coverage<\/p>\n