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\n Mallik Tillman scored one of the goals of the tournament against Bosnia and Herzegovina.
\n Photo: Getty Images\n <\/p>\n
This Fourth of July weekend, if you are looking for a brief timewarp back to a moment in your lifetime when America felt almost normal, may I direct you to the last time the United States played Belgium in a World Cup. It was 2014, in Brazil \u2014 back before the World Cup routinely took place in countries with authoritarian regimes like Qatar, Russia and, uh, well\u2026Anyway, the U.S. team, under coach Jurgen Klinsmann, had advanced to the Round of 16 to play a Belgium side that was heavily favored, and for good reason. The USMNT was outmanned throughout, giving up a stunning 26 shots on goal, all but two of which were saved by US keeper Tim Howard, who put together one of the greatest World Cup performances of all time. (And certainly the greatest United States World Cup performance of all time.) Belgium ended up winning 2-1\u2014in a game in which they led in Expected Goals 5.66 to 1.4<\/a>, which is to say, it was a blowout in every way except for Howard\u2019s heroics\u2014and Howard became such a national hero overnight that then-President Obama joked that he was considering replacing then Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel with Howard<\/a>.\u00a0\u201cI know there\u2019s actually a petition on the White House website to make Tim Howard the next secretary of defense. Chuck Hagel\u2019s got that spot right now, but if there is a vacancy, I\u2019ll think about it,\u201d Obama said with a smile.<\/p>\n You might struggle to find too much about America that\u2019s better right now than it was in 2014, but here\u2019s one thing that definitely is: The United States Men\u2019s National Soccer Team. As they prepare to play Belgium in the Round of 16 again on Monday night, it should be noted that they are no longer underdogs: the game is widely considered a toss-up. That, right there, is progress. It might be some of the only progress of the last 12 years, but it\u2019s progress nonetheless.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s an FAQ for all you need to know about Monday\u2019s game.<\/p>\n Hey, I get it. The red card given to striker Falorin Balogun against Bosnia-Herzegovina, which put the USMNT a man down the rest of that game and also resulted in Balogun\u2019s automatic suspension for Monday\u2019s contest, was highly suspect \u2014 particularly because Balogun\u2019s foul was so obviously accidental. The most annoying thing about the call is that you can make an argument it was the correct one; when you slow it down frame-by-frame, it absolutely does look like \u201cserious foul play,\u201d which is what the video review crew needs to dole out a red card. The problem, of course, is that sports are not slowed down. They happen really fast, and what looked menacing in super slow motion looked more happenstance in real time. When you review something by slowing it down, and there are specific criteria about what constitutes a red card, and the play in question meets that criteria, well, sometimes you have to get pedantic about it.<\/p>\n I don\u2019t like it either. But it is not, in fact, something that the refs did specifically to screw the US. It was a close call! The victimization is a bit exhausting. They\u2019re refs! Their job is super hard! The world is uncertain and moving very fast! You know who else was complaining about calls after the game? Bosnian fans! They think they got screwed too! Every fan does! The United States will not have Falorin Balogun, one of their best players, for the Round of 16 game. That stinks. But it is perhaps time to move on?<\/p>\n I know, it\u2019s kind of my thing<\/a>.<\/p>\n It\u2019s about as close to one as you can find. Most of the major odds services have the USMNT as a slight favorite<\/a>, though The Athletic\u2019s well-regarded forecast<\/a> gives Belgium a 61 percent chance of winning, which made it the second-closest projected Round of 16 game. That it\u2019s this close really does speak to how much ground the United States has made in the last 14 years. A win in 2014 would have been a major upset. This absolutely would not be.<\/p>\n They\u2019ve got some big names, like Jeremy Doku, Leandro Trossard, Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku. But they are not as good as they were 12 years ago, in large part because those last two players, De Bruyne and Lukaku, are the ones who scored against Howard 12 years ago and they\u2019re now, you know, a lot older. They are a controlled possession team who, like most European teams, are patient and opportunistic at breaking down a defense. This is a potential problem for the US, which has indeed suffered some breakdowns, particularly against Australia and Turkiye.<\/p>\n But there\u2019s plenty of room for optimism, too. For all the frustration with the Balogun red card, the USMNT not only didn\u2019t collapse having to play a man down, but in fact thrived, leading to the Malik Tillman goal<\/a> that was one of the best USMNT World Cup shots ever. And it should be said that Belgium, in their win over Senegal in the Round of 32, looked like the worse team for most of the match. They were fortunate that Senegal collapsed late, but they controlled most of that game.<\/p>\n With Balogun out, there is even more pressure on Christian Pulisic. The best player on the U.S. team has not scored yet in this tournament, but he has nonetheless looked electric and, more to the point, healthy. He has been the great American hope since he was a teenager; he\u2019ll never have a more high-profile opportunity than this one. This could be his Tim Howard moment. And he\u2019d probably be an improvement on some current Cabinet members as well.<\/p>\n It\u2019s in Seattle, which might be ideal. Seattle became the unofficial USMNT home field after it roared and shook during the victory over Australia on June 19. This is probably where you want any crucial game to happen; it provides the best home-field advantage the United States could ask for. If they keep winning, the U.S. will play in Los Angeles, Dallas and, of course, the Final in East Rutherford. But Seattle will be the loudest.<\/p>\n Flights to Seattle are not that expensive right now<\/a>, which is good, because hoo boy these tickets. The median price is currently $5,302<\/a>, with the cheapest ticket around $2,300. You best go for it now, though: The median price for the final is currently $28,750<\/a>.<\/p>\n The winner of Spain-Portugal, both of whom are among the best, most popular teams in the world. The game would be on Friday, July 10, at 3 p.m. ET, which has serious, almost overwhelming, street party potential. It would only be the third time the United States will have reached the quarterfinals in the World Cup and would unquestionably be the biggest United States\u2019 men\u2019s soccer game in the history of this country. It also, seriously, would be a super awesome way to spend a Friday afternoon. But they\u2019ve got to win this one first. And you know what? Even without Balogun, I think they will.<\/p>\n