EU leaders converge on Brussels Thursday hoping to unlock a massive loan for Kyiv, with the much-needed funding ensnared in a standoff between Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky.<\/p>\n
Moscow’s closest partner in the bloc, the nationalist Hungarian leader has long resisted helping Kyiv to repel Russia’s invasion, stalling EU aid and repeated rounds of sanctions.<\/p>\n
This time around, Orban is holding up a 90-billion-euro ($104 billion) loan as leverage in a feud over damage to a pipeline running through Ukraine — which has choked the flow of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia.<\/p>\n
As the Hungarian prime minister leans into anti-EU and anti-Ukrainian narratives ahead of close-fought national elections on April 12 — he appears intent on playing hardball.<\/p>\n
“No oil, no money,” he warned this week. “If President Zelensky wants to get his money from Brussels, then the Druzhba pipeline must be reopened.”<\/p>\n
The weeks-long spat has seen landlocked Hungary and Slovakia both accuse Ukraine of stalling on pipeline repairs — while Zelensky has called it “blackmail” to link the issue to support for its war effort.<\/p>\n
The European Commission moved this week to unblock the situation by sending a team to help restore oil transit, but Budapest dismissed the initiative as “theatre” and refused to budge.<\/p>\n
Cue a looming showdown in Brussels — and a tricky balancing act for Orban’s EU counterparts.<\/p>\n
– ‘No Plan B’ –<\/p>\n
It’s a well worn routine in Brussels, where Orban has held up countless decisions on Ukraine, and solutions have ultimately been found — in one famous case having him leave the room while the bloc approved the start of membership talks with Kyiv.<\/p>\n
But the frustration is palpable that Orban should renege on a loan he personally greenlit at a previous summit in December.<\/p>\n
“Everybody wants this to be resolved,” summed up an EU diplomat, saying fellow capitals were “more or less fed up” with the Hungarian leader’s behaviour.<\/p>\n
A German government official described a “certain momentum” on the pipeline issue — seeing a chance of a breakthrough when leaders come face-to-face on Thursday.<\/p>\n
But the message from other capitals was less optimistic.<\/p>\n
“Will we make progress? I have strong doubts,” said the EU diplomat, predicting Orban was “not going to budge” on a stance playing well with his voter base at home.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Complicating matters, leaders are wary of offering Orban — who is trailing main rival Peter Magyar in the polls — a chance to bolster his image as a maverick on the EU stage by publicly ganging up on him.<\/p>\n
Failure to break the deadlock this week would most likely push the issue back until after the Hungarian vote, whatever its outcome.<\/p>\n
Can Ukraine hold out till after Hungary’s election? Unclear, say EU insiders.<\/p>\n
Facing a budget shortfall four years into the war, Kyiv is estimated to need an influx of funds in early May — implying a decision to unlock the EU loan by mid-April.<\/p>\n
As Orban has dug in, there has been talk of alternative solutions to help keep Ukraine afloat — but a second EU diplomat poured cold water on the notion.<\/p>\n
“There’s no bridging solutions or Plan B. There’s only one plan, and that’s Plan A,” they said. “Orban should deliver on his promise.”<\/p>\n
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