An unexpected pause in prisoner releases has alarmed Belarusian opposition, raising fears for detainees’ health and testing US diplomatic strategy.
London, June 9 (Reuters) – The U.S. administration told the exiled Belarusian opposition about a delay in efforts to secure the release of more political prisoners of Lukashenko, Reuters reported according to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.
Her words reflect the first public sign of a slowdown in the pace of negotiations led by Ambassador John Cole with the support of the Trump administration, which had led to the release of more than 400 prisoners. The human rights group Viasna says that nearly 870 people remain detained, among them at least 170 are “especially vulnerable” due to age, illness, or harsh conditions of confinement.
Tsikhanouskaya told Reuters in an interview that she had been told by the U.S. side that “the next releases have been postponed for some time,” but she cannot explain the reasons.
“The next releases were postponed for some time”
– Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
“Knowing the reason, I do not care about it. Of course, we want as many people as possible to be released as quickly as possible, and any delay worsens the health of many of them,” she said in English.
“Knowing the reason, I don’t care about that. Of course, we want more people to be released as quickly as possible, and any delay worsens their health.”
– Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
She also pointed to the positive remarks by Cole, who on June 3 posted on X: “We are not finished. Keep hope alive!”
Reuters sought comment from Cole and Lukashenko’s office. Both did not respond.
RELATIONS WITH THE BELARUSIAN LEADER: A SHIFT IN U.S. POLICY VIEW
The decision by the United States to begin talks with Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, marked a sharp departure from the previous Western stance. He had previously been viewed as an isolated figure under strict sanctions for human rights abuses and for backing the war in Ukraine.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, whom Western governments regard as the legitimate winner of the controversial 2020 elections organized by Lukashenko, welcomed the U.S. involvement as an important humanitarian initiative but warned against legitimizing the authoritarian ruler.
She also does not hide her disappointment at Trump’s public compliments of Lukashenko, whom he called “the Very Respectable President of Belarus,” but concedes that the U.S. approach still has some effect.
“Neither President Trump nor those around him are naive – they understand who they are dealing with, and they can take tactical steps to free people.”
– Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
SANCTIONS RELIEF LINKED TO PRISONER RELEASE
In a major reversal, the United States announced in December the lifting of sanctions on Belarusian potash fertilizers as a reward for the release of prisoners. However, this did not lead to a significant rise in Lukashenko’s earnings, as EU sanctions remain in place, forcing Belarus to route exports through Russia instead of the more efficient route via the Klaipėda port.
Last month, Lithuania said the United States is pressuring to restore Belarus’s access to Klaipėda, but Warsaw or Vilnius have refrained from discussing the issue until the EU’s restrictions are fully lifted by February 2027.
Pavel Slunkin, a former Belarusian diplomat and now an independent analyst in Warsaw, believes that Lukashenko’s disappointment at the inability to engage Europeans in dialogue likely led to delays in negotiations over prisoner releases.
“Perhaps the Americans promised Lukashenka something they cannot fulfill.”
– Pavel Slunkin
DIPLOMACY AND VODKA
Cole, 79, was appointed by Trump last year to lead negotiations with Lukashenko. He built rapport with the former head of a state farm during hours of talks and meals with vodka to stay sober during the discussions.
Among the hundreds of future released prisoners are Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski and leading opposition figures, including Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s husband, Siarhei Tsikhanouski.
On April 24, Cole told Reuters that he expected to release more prisoners the following month. However, six weeks later, that did not happen.
On June 4, Cole rebutted claims by Valery Tsepkalo, a Belarusian opposition politician and former U.S. ambassador, that Lukashenko refused to meet him in May.
RISING TENSIONS
A gradual pause in negotiations came amid rising tensions between Lukashenko and the West. Belarus conducted joint nuclear drills with Russia, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Moscow is trying to draw Belarus further into the war.
Arrests of Lukashenko’s critics continue, although Cole said this should stop. Tsikhanouskaya noted that people are being arrested “daily,” but exact statistics are unavailable due to fears among relatives of those in power.
The human rights group Viasna reported at least 50 convictions since December that it considers politically motivated. Last month, 32 names were added to the list of political prisoners.
Tsikhanouskaya told Reuters that Lukashenko uses “revolving doors” – replacing old prisoners with new ones to preserve leverage for bargaining and pressure.
“He wants to get a Lamborghini for the price of a bicycle. Take a lot, give little.”
– Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
“If Americans and Europeans do not take a principled stance, we will repeat the same cycle: Lukashenko will be deceiving, sanctions will be lifted, and the regime will remain – without systemic changes.”
– Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Despite the criticism, Tsikhanouskaya emphasizes the value of U.S. engagement in negotiations as a humanitarian step, but notes that legitimizing Lukashenko is unacceptable, and calls for commitments to real change in the Belarusian regime.
Still, the negotiation process continues, and Western and Belarusian actors remain engaged in the dialogue. It is important to keep focus on human rights and transparency of actions by all participants so that positive steps do not fade away.