Trying to predict where a stock could go in the coming year is tough. However, we all try to analsye a company to assess if it’s a smart buy or not. When it comes to the Barclays (LSE:BARC) share price, a lot of people have an opinion of where it could end up by next summer. So does it make sense to buy the stock now?

The view from the experts

At the moment, the current forecast by the research team at Goldman Sachs is a price of 655p. Given the current Barclays share price is 516p, this indicates an almost-27% increase.

When I compare this to other banks and brokers that submit a forecast, Goldman is actually at the top. The average of the forecasters is 577p, so more of a conservative figure, but still an increase from the current price. Interestingly, the lowest view is 510p from the team at Citi. This is good, as it’s not like there are huge outliers that are expecting a large drop in the coming year.

Of course, whenever I review analyst forecasts I have to remind myself that these are just subjective views. Even though the team at Goldman is very well respected in the industry, they do still get things wrong. Therefore, I need to take the views and appreciate them, but make my own decisions.

Adding in my own view

For more context, the Barclays share price is up 39% in the past year. Even though it has been a powerful run, I don’t think that necessarily means the easy money has all been made.

The argument I’d make for further gains centres on profitability and capital returns. Barclays continues to benefit from its diversified model, ranging from credit cards right through to investment banking. Its latest half-year results showed management making further progress against its three-year plan, while excess capital provides scope for dividends and share buybacks. Such buybacks are particularly interesting after the great improvement in earnings because reducing the share count can provide another boost to earnings per share.

If earnings keep ticking higher, investors should be willing to attach a slightly higher valuation to the company, which still has a very reasonable price-to-earnings ratio of 11.87.

Being realistic

But there’s another side to this. Barclays has already undergone a substantial rally over the past couple of years. This means expectations are considerably higher than they were when the shares traded lower. So if we get some risks popping up, such as a weaker UK economy, rising loan impairments or a downturn in investment banking, the mood could quickly change.

Although being realistic around those concerns is valid, I still agree with some of the experts that the direction for the stock price is higher. Therefore, for those who don’t have much banking exposure, I think it’s a stock to consider.

Should you invest £5,000 in Barclays Plc right now?

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Jon Smith does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.

The post Goldman Sachs thinks the Barclays share price could rally to this level by summer 2027 appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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