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A fifth heatwave is sweeping across the UK with temperatures forecast to reach 38C on Thursday. The Met Office says that this summer is on course to be the hottest on record.
So what? Wildfires, drought and sleepless nights are forcing a confrontation with climate change at a time when politicians are more divided than ever about how to tackle the threat.
The ultimate cause of these multiple heatwaves is manmade climate change, but Britain is also at the western edge of a continent that is warming twice as fast as the global average and has experienced an exceptional number of heatwaves since 2003. This is because
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a shift in atmospheric circulation has increased the likelihood of near-stationary areas of high pressure which keep the weather dry and settled for long spells;
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less snow cover in Europe means less solar radiation is reflected back into space; and
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increasingly clean air, though better for our lungs, has removed tiny polluting particles which reflect sunlight and mask some of the heating from climate change.
Take off the specs. The exceptionally hot summer of 1976 saw a record high temperature of 35.9C at Cheltenham in early July. Temperatures soared into the mid-30s this June. Half a century ago, the temperatures of 2026 would have been nearly impossible early in the summer and unlikely at any time of year. In other words, communal memories of hot spells can serve us poorly when dealing with what’s happening now.
What’s happening now? The country is counting the costs of climate change.
Health. This year’s heatwaves are expected to result in the highest number of heat-related deaths on record in the UK. In two of the heatwaves so far this year, there have been 2,877 heat-associated deaths – approaching the annual record of 2,985 deaths recorded in 2022. The deaths are likely to skew older as they have done in previous heatwaves, and underline the need for hospitals and care homes to prepare for summer heat as they do for winter flu.
Nature. Drought and heat extremes are drying out peat bogs and heathland, as well as reducing oxygen levels in rivers, which harms fish and other aquatic life. Wild species are extending their range northwards, while creatures such as the golden plover – which breeds on high moorland – are expected to see their habitats shrink.
… with caveats. A few species appear to be thriving. Rat populations are rising globally, possibly because higher temperatures allow them to forage above ground for longer and extend their breeding season. In Britain the oak processionary moth, which strips oak trees of leaves and is hazardous to humans, is expected to have a bonanza year because of the warm spring.
Food. The dry, hot weather is expected to result in one of the worst cereal harvests in years, according to analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit. Britain is a wealthy country and food can be imported to fill gaps in homegrown production, but major supermarkets wrote to Andy Burnham last month to raise concerns about the UK’s domestic supply chain.
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Energy. The heat is disrupting infrastructure, from rail to river transport, and putting pressure on power systems. Wind speeds tend to fall during heatwaves while gas plants operate with reduced efficiency, resulting in a drop in power supply while people turn to A/C units. On 23 June, Britain’s electricity system operator issued an emergency call for additional power.
The backpocket. There is likely to be an economic impact, too, chiefly because of lost working hours, especially for those in outdoor jobs, but also, potentially, if bad harvests lead to higher food prices in the coming months.
What’s more… Humanity’s impact on the planet has become even clearer this summer, not least in the UK. The only good option ahead starts with a drastic cut in emissions.
Photograph by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images