Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s plan to crack down on illegal migrants using family to stay in the UK is facing a new major obstacle.
A watchdog that independently assesses the quality of evidence behind new rules gave the Home Office’s impact assessment of the changes a red rating, meaning it considered it “not fit for purpose”.
It means that Labour MPs already angry at the plans will have a greater incentive to rebel, while migrants appealing against deportation orders in the courts will be able to argue that the new rules are flawed.
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Caption: Palestinians run for cover as smoke and fire rise during an Israeli strike on the the Al-Muttaqin Mosque in Gaza City on July 28, 2026. Gaza remains gripped by daily violence, with both the Israeli military and Hamas accusing one another of violating the truce in effect since October 10. The war flattened swathes of the territory, displaced most of the population at least once, and left hundreds of thousands of people living in tents and temporary shelters. (Photo by Omar AL-QATTAA / AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: OMAR AL-QATTAA
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Where does the Gaza peace deal stand?
US envoy Jared Kushner is in the Middle East today for talks with key figures, following a rare meeting with Hamas’s leader yesterday.
Last month, Donald Trump’s Board of Peace said it had reached an agreement for the “complete disarmament” of Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza.
Here’s what you need to know.
Israel rejects Gaza peace plan
Hamas continues to rule over the Gaza strip and has refused calls from Board of Peace officials to disarm (Photo: Chris McGrath/Getty Images)
Hamas deal
Trump said Hamas had agreed to disarm if Israel withdraws its forces from Gaza. Israel rejected the 15-point plan, which calls for Gaza to be rebuilt under a new civilian Palestinian administration.
US-brokered ceasefire
The Hamas deal breakthrough came nine months after a US-brokered ceasefire was signed, with negotiations between Israel and Hamas largely deadlocked since then.
Caption: sraeli soldiers take a break on their armoured vehicles at a position along the Israel-Gaza border fence on October 10, 2025. Gaza’s civil defence agency said on October 10 that Israeli forces have begun pulling back from parts of the territory, particularly in Gaza City and Khan Yunis. Israeli prime minister’s office said that the government had “approved the framework” of a hostage release deal with Hamas, as both sides edged closer to ending more than two years of hostilities in Gaza. (Photo by Jack GUEZ / AFP) (Photo by JACK GUEZ/AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: JACK GUEZ
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US envoy to meet Netanyahu
Netanyahu rejects plan
The Israeli PM said his military would not withdraw from Gaza, warning there would never be a Palestinian state in Gaza under his leadership.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has dismissed a push from the mayor of New York City to arrest him (Photo: Nathan Howard/AFP)
Caption: FILE PHOTO: Jared Kushner looks on during a swearing-in ceremony of Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 6, 2025. REUTERS/Kent Nishimura/File Photo
Photographer: Kent Nishimura
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Source: REUTERS
US envoy in Middle East
Trump’s envoy Jared Kushner is expected to meet Netanyahu today to discuss the US-backed Gaza plan. He met with with Hamas leader Khalil al Hayya yesterday.
What happens next?
Eight Muslim countries issued a statement on Sunday condemning Israel’s rejection.
While it’s not yet clear whether Kushner’s talks will be successful, one topic at the heart of discussions will be the disarmament process.
Caption: Palestinians pass along a street surrounded by buildings destroyed during Israeli air and ground operations in the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood, in Gaza City, Tuesday, Dec. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Photographer: Abdel Kareem Hana
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Source: AP
Analysis
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The weather to expect for the rest of the summer
Much of England this week was placed under an amber warning for extreme heat, in the face of the fifth heatwave in a summer marked by extremely dry weather and drought (Photo: Dan Kitwood/ Getty Images)
While temperatures are expected to drop this week after the UK’s fifth heatwave brought a record 38.1°C – it appears the relief will be only temporary.
Another heatwave is expected to descend on the UK next month, the Met Office has warned, after a month of unprecedented hot and dry conditions.
A September heatwave
The Met Office has predicted that there is a chance of a late-season heatwave developing in September as the UK moves into the meteorological autumn.
The forecaster said there was “a chance that late-season hot spells or heatwaves develop” in the south between 31 August and 14 September.
Caption: (FILES) An aerial view shows the green square and parched, dry and yellow grass on the cricket field of Maidenhead & Bray CC during a game, in Bray, west of London on July 25, 2026, during the extended heatwave. Climate change has intensified a drought across Europe this summer, with extreme heat driving the exceptionally dry conditions, according to experts. (Photo by Justin TALLIS / AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: JUSTIN TALLIS
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People on the cracked and dried mud bed of Hollow Pond, where the water levels have significantly dropped, in east London (Photo: Yui Mok/PA Wire)
Northern areas to see ‘more changeable conditions’
The Met Office predicts “drier, more settled weather is slightly more likely towards the south and east. Temperatures are again likely to be near to or above average overall”.
A wildfire warning in Richmond Park, London (Photo: Toby Melville/Reuters)
Caption: People look out from a viewpoint at Newlands Corner, near Guildford, southwest of London, on August 2, 2026, over dry fields, turned brown from the heat of the sun and the lack of rain. England and Wales were on course for the driest July since records began nearly 200 years ago, the Met Office said on Friday, amid a prolonged heatwave and exceptionally low rainfall. (Photo by Peter Nicholls / AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: PETER NICHOLLS
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While the south may see more heat, there will likely be “more changeable conditions” in the north and northwest of the country as autumn begins, the Met Office said.
Rain to fall after record dry July
Looking to the weekend, BBC Weather forecasts up to a 58 per cent chance of rain on Sunday, 23 August.
The following week could also see some rain, with BBC Weather predicting showers on Thursday, 28 August and Friday, 29 August – some respite after the driest July on record across England.
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Analysis
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news
Eurostar rival finally gets go ahead – everything we know
Virgin will be raising prices by 3.2 per cent (Photo: Getty)
Incoming Eurostar rival Virgin Trains has been granted track access for new services between London and Paris, Brussels and Amsterdam in 2030.
It marks a step closer to ending Eurostar’s monopoly. The trainline has operated without competition for nearly 32 years.
Approval lasts for 10 years
Caption: An aerial photograph shows the Temple Mills International train depot in east London, on October 27, 2025. British entrepreneur Richard Branson vowed Thursday to “shake up” cross-Channel train services after regulators approved a key bid by his Virgin Group to share an east London depot with Eurostar. The Virgin founder said the decision by the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) to grant access to the Temple Mills International site for maintaining and storing trains was “the right one for consumers”. (Photo by Yelim LEE / AFP) (Photo by YELIM LEE/AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: YELIM LEE
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The Office of Rail and Road (ORR) has given approval for Sir Richard Branson’s company to run up to 20 daily services through the Channel Tunnel between October 2030 to December 2040.
Big Read
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Virgin Trains in Eurostar stations
In October, Virgin Trains was told it could share Eurostar’s Temple Mills depot in east London.
Temple Mills is the only depot that can be accessed from High Speed 1 – the line that runs between London and the tunnel.
Virgin Trains plans to run services between St Pancras and the same stations in Paris, Brussels and Amsterdam used by Eurostar.
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‘Still more work to do’
This is an important next step in bringing competition and growth to the market for international rail services, and we welcome the progress Virgin Trains and London St Pancras High Speed have made. While there is still more work to do, we are supporting Virgin and the wider industry to grow international services.
Martin Jones, Deputy director of access and international
Virgins Trains East Coast failed again due to ‘wildly wrong’ forecasts (Photo: Stagecoach)
What next?
Despite just clearing a major regulatory hurdle, Virgin Trains has yet to secure access to other rail networks.
It must also obtain safety approvals from the ORR and relevant regulators in the EU before services start in 2030.
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Experts say the world is at a key cross-roads in malaria control and eradication (Photo: James Gathany/CDC via AP)
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Scientists hail malaria breakthrough – what we know
A new compound has been hailed “an exciting step forward” in the fight against malaria – which kills hundreds of thousands of people each year.
Researchers at the University of Dundee, who discovered the compound, say it has the potential to simplify dosing regimens for the treatment and prevention of the illness.
A ‘novel drug-like molecule’
The new compound, called cabamiquine, is described as a “novel drug-like molecule” that can be delivered in a single dose.
The advances in a vaccine against malaria was one of 2023’s most promising breakthroughs (Photo: Getty Images)
The world should learn the lessons of Covid to fast-track vaccines for deadly diseases like malaria, according to Professor Adrian Hill (Photo: AFP)
An early-stage clinical trial showed that when administered with a commonly used antimalarial drug called pyronaridine, it is both effective and has a favourable safety profile in adults and adolescents.
Larger trials on the horizon
The team said the findings support the development of the combination therapy for larger trials and children.
In 2024, there were an estimated 282 million cases of malaria and 610,000 deaths from the disease worldwide. Figures have been rising in part due to resistance to common malaria medicines.
Caption: FILE PHOTO: A doctor tests a child for malaria at the Ithani-Asheri Hospital in Arusha, Tanzania, May 11, 2016. REUTERS/Katy Migiro/File Photo
Photographer: Katy Migiro
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Recurring malaria is the most common type of malaria outside Sub-Saharan Africa. (NABILA EL HADAD/AFP/Getty Images)
An ‘exciting step forward’
This is an exciting step forward for a compound which has great potential to simplify dosing regimens for malaria, a disease which causes hundreds of thousands of deaths every year. We are delighted to see how the compound… is progressing into a potential malaria medicine.
Dr Beatriz Baragana, a member of the Dundee University team that discovered cabamiquine
Amina Dawd, 36, strokes one of her resting children’s hair as two of her other children sleep under the protective bednets. The children sleeping without the net will still gain some protection from the repellant properties of the bednet. The Long Lasting Insecticide Nets (LLIN) help to repell bugs and prevent malaria, the country’s biggest killer disease. (Photo by Louise Gubb/Corbis via Getty Images)
Everything you need to know about Reform’s welfare overhaul
Reform UK is preparing to unveil the biggest shake-up of the welfare system “in a generation”, with plans to abolish personal independence payments (PIP) for working-age adults and save an estimated £50bn a year.
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‘We will not pretend this is painless’
Nearly three million people would see their disability or sickness payments withdrawn or changed under the plans.
The party’s treasury spokesman, Robert Jenrick, set out the proposals in an article for The Sunday Telegraph, ahead of a full 50-page policy paper due on Monday. He has acknowledged the human cost directly, writing: “We will not pretend this is painless.”
Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage (left) and Reform’s Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick (Photo: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire)
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What is Reform proposing?
Reform would scrap PIP and the health element of universal credit for working-age adults. Both would be replaced with a new “health security allowance”, a single, regularly reviewed payment.
Only claimants with “severe, enduring and high-risk” conditions would qualify for that cash support.
Everyone else currently receiving disability-related payments would lose their cash entitlement altogether.
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A closer look at the detail
Those who would lose access to payments would instead be supported through council-run disability support accounts.
An activist holds a placard during a protest over benefits cuts organised by People’s Assembly on June 7, 2025 in London, England. Activists as well as some Labour MPs have objected to the government’s proposed benefits cuts, including tightened criteria for personal independence payments (Pip) for people with disabilities. (Photo by Alishia Abodunde/Getty Images)
Photographer: Alishia Abodunde
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The Government faced backlash for proposing to cut personal independence payments last summer (Photo: Mark Kerrison/In Pictures via Getty Images)
Reform estimates that 2.16 million would keep their present cash entitlement in full, while 2.89 million would see theirs modified or withdrawn.
Child payments impacted
This week, Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have both strongly hinted they will lift the two-child benefit limit (Photo: Danny Lawson/PA)
The party plans to extend the same approach to children’s benefits, aligning the system for anxiety, depression and ADHD with the adult changes, though only for new claimants.
Exclusive
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Plans modelled on Dutch system
Reform would also place a new obligation on businesses with more than five staff to take out “return to work cover” insurance, which would pay for the cost of an employee’s first two years off sick, rather than the state covering that cost through benefits.
The scheme is modelled on the Dutch system, where Reform argues disability benefit applications fell by 40 per cent after similar reforms were introduced.
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Why average house price plunged by £7,360 in August
While a quieter market could create opportunities for buyers, for sellers it means pricing correctly and being realistic more than ever (Photo: Jason Alden/Getty)
Average house prices nosedived by more than £7,000 this month- marking the biggest August price fall since 2018, according to new figures.
Property site Rightmove said asking prices fell by 2 per cent, or £7,360 month-on-month.
Rightmove downgrades annual house price projections
While prices usually fall in August, this is a much bigger drop than the 10-year average of 1.3 per cent.
The figures prompted Rightmove to downgrade its annual house price forecast for 2026 from a 2 per cent increase to between 0 and a 2 per cent fall.
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What is influencing the figures?
The average asking price for a home in Britain stood at £364,999 in August – 1 per cent lower than a year ago.
And it’s all down to the supply.
The number of available homes for sale is at a 12-year high for this time of year.
This, combined with the quiet summer holiday period, has led to lower price expectations from sellers.
Colleen Babcock, a property expert at Rightmove, said the larger-than-usual price drop is a sign sellers are pricing much more competitively from the offset.
“Buyers have the widest choice of homes for sale at this time of year in more than a decade, so standing out on price for the right reasons is hugely important,” she said.
A regional divide in property prices
But not everywhere is experiencing a dampening in property prices – as usual, there is a regional divide, Rightmove said.
Some buyers are putting purchases on pause (Yui Mok/PA Wire)
One third of renters are paying 50 per cent or more of their income on their rent (Photo: Christopher Furlong/ Getty)
In the North West of England, average asking prices are up by 1.9 per cent annually, beating out homes in London where prices have sunk by 3.1 per cent on average.
Burnham ‘mini bounce’
The depressed figures follow a “mini bounce” in buyer demand since Andy Burnham became PM.
Buying activity, however, remains roughly 10 per cent below 2025 levels due to the changing picture for mortgage rates, geopolitical uncertainty and October’s Budget spooking potential buyers.
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The golden rules for a happy, secure relationship
Psychiatrist and neuroscientist Dr Amir Levine, author of bestselling book Attached, explains why we behave the way we do in love.
Caption: Happy woman walking with male partner in vineyard during sunset. Elderly couple are touring in field against sky. They are enjoying during weekend.
Photographer: Morsa Images
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Source: Digital Vision
Golden rules for happy relationships
Start with your own behaviours
The foundation of a secure, connected life is being what I call CARRP: that means being consistent, available, responsive, reliable and predictable. All of these qualities can be enacted in small gestures every day.
Side view of affectionate happy couple sitting in the cozy cafe. – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
Son’t assume your partner knows how you think (Photo: ljubaphoto/Getty/E+)
Express your needs
People need consistency and connection to feel safe. This is not, ‘You hurt my feelings by never replying to me’, it’s more ‘this is the kind of contact that helps me feel secure’.
Golden rules for happy relationships
Unhappy married couple facing away from each other in a quiet home, concept of emotional distance, loneliness in relationship and family problems – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
The appendix ‘inflammation’ rule
If a relationship repeatedly inflames your nervous system, you need to disengage and deprioritise it.
Lean on community
You don’t need hundreds of friends. You need people and places that regularly remind you that you belong.
Caption: Happy couples talking while walking embraced during spring day in a meadow.
Photographer: skynesher
Provider: Getty Images
Source: E+
Candid shot happiness and togetherness Asian mother supporting daughter try to standing and walking first time and positive emotion – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
Stop blaming childhood
Humans are much more complicated than: ‘this happened to you, therefore you are doomed to be anxious’.
Caption: Financial problems. Worried middle-aged woman holding utility bills, managing monthly household budget, sitting on bed feeling anxious. Cost of living concept
Photographer: MementoJpeg
Provider: Getty Images
Source: Moment RF
Reach for a
secure script
When something unsettles you in a relationship, your first reaction is not always the most accurate one.
If you’re anxious, your brain may jump very quickly to: ‘this is the beginning of the end’. If you’re avoidant, your brain may say: ‘this person wants too much from me, I need to get away’. So one very practical thing you can always do is pause and ask: ‘What would a secure person do here?’
Loneliness elsewhere
When people talk about loneliness, they often assume it means you don’t have enough people in your life. But you can be surrounded by people and still feel lonely if those relationships leave you feeling excluded, ignored or disconnected.
Frustrated lonely shy guy sitting apart of others teenagers – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
What to do
Build a community that works for your temperament and gives you regular, reliable moments of connection.
You can still be kind to people while not treating them as someone who belongs in your inner circle.
Explain what you need. Sometimes people simply don’t realise how you are experiencing them.
Check in with people: does this person actually feel that I’m reliable? Do they experience me as predictable? That’s the only way that you can start to become more secure.
Do some foods leave
you feeling hungry rather than satiated? Experts say there are…
Foods that leave you hungrier
A bowl of cereal and glass of orange juice
More refined cereals are digested quickly, and fruit juice, whilst one of your five-a-day, contains less fibre than whole fruit. This might mean you find yourself hungry again within 1-2 hours of eating this breakfast.
No more orange juice. (Photo via pixaby)
It’s estimated ultra processed foods make up at least half of the average UK diet (Photo: Getty)
Swap the orange juice for a whole orange, the cereal for oats and milk or serve it with Greek yoghurt or a boiled egg. This would increase the fibre and protein content; two nutrients strongly linked with fullness.
Foods that leave you hungrier
Caption: Gail’s croissant
Image taken from https://gails.com/collections/breakfast/products/croissant
Croissants
These pastries are made primarily from refined flour and butter, and are relatively low in protein and fibre.
Toast and jam
It is mostly carbohydrate and without protein or fibre, it is digested quickly, leaving you feeling hungry.
Caption: Toasted bread and white background
Photographer: Daniel Tamas Mehes
Provider: Getty Images
Source: iStockphoto
Copyright: Minden jog fenntartva!
Yakitori’s on the menu at the Japanese restaurant – but what exactly is it? (Photo: Reuters)
Sushi
Shop-bought packs can contain a lot of white rice, which is digested quickly, and the protein content is often modest.
Foods that leave you hungrier
Sarawak laksa is one of many varieties of this noodle soup (Photo: Tham Kee Chuan/Getty)
Vegetable soup
On its own, it is often very low in protein and calories, so hunger can return quickly.
Pizza
Unless it’s loaded with veggies, it’s probably pretty low in fibre.
Best pizza in Britain named – and owner reveals the secret to its success (Photo: James Linsell Clark/SWNS)
The Government has announced that the sugar tax will be extended to milkshakes (Photo: Scott Suchman)
Smoothies
Liquids are generally less filling as they require little chewing which may not trigger satiety signals.
Foods that leave you hungrier
‘Aged 14, I started what I considered to be my own little business selling confectionary,’ writes Beauty Dhlamini (Photo: Getty)
Snack bars
They are ideal for a quick pick-me-up, but if reducing hunger is what you’re after, it’d be better to swap it out.
Low-fat yoghurt
A full-fat plain Greek yoghurt with berries and seeds tends to be much more filling due to the protein, fat and fibre.
Which yoghurts are the best options? (Unsplash)
Caption: BANGKOK, THAILAND – OCTOBER 17: A “KT Herbalist”, a Kratom cocktail made from Kratom, coffee and siamese herbs is seen at Teens of Thailand, a bar in Bangkok’s Chinatown on October 17, 2021 in Bangkok, Thailand. In April 2021, the start of Thailand’s third and most deadly wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Thai government banned the sale of alcohol in restaurants and bars, crippling the already suffering food and beverage industry. With a lack of government aid and support, some bars have shuttered their doors in hopes of reopening post-lockdown, while others shuttered their doors for good. But six months into Thailand’s most recent lockdown, Niks Anuman-Rajadhon, owner of Teens of Thailand, a gin bar located in a renovated shophouse in Bangkok’s Chinatown, decided that instead of waiting for the government to allow the sale of alcohol again, they would take advantage of Thailand’s recent legalization of Kratom. Kratom is a locally grown herbal drug with mild opioid and stimulant effects and was reclassified from a type-5 narcotic to a legal-to-grow herb in August 2021. While Thailand prepares for a tentative reopening on November 1st, the alcohol ban and curfew are set to continue, leaving business owners questioning if the country can revive its suffering tourism industry. (Photo by Lauren DeCicca/Getty Images)
Photographer: Lauren DeCicca
Provider: Getty Images
Source: Getty Images AsiaPac
Alcohol
On an empty stomach, it can actually increase your appetite.
What to eat instead
Instead of thinking about avoiding foods, think about what you can add to them.
Add beans, lentils or shredded chicken to your vegetable soup and pasta.
Thicken your smoothies with Greek yoghurt, chia seeds and oats.
Apple slices with peanut butter, yogurt with berries and hummus with oat biscuits are better snack options than a pre-made snack bar.
Have alcohol alongside a balanced meal containing protein and fibre.
At the moment, Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) protects the right to family life, allowing migrants who arrived in the UK illegally to avoid deportation by claiming family connections.
The Government says it granted 77,000 applications under Article 8 last year.
The Home Secretary’s new rules in her Immigration and Asylum Bill would tighten this up by narrowing the definition of family to a spouse, parents, or a child under 18.
“A domestic abuser from Poland with a string of convictions for violence was allowed to stay on the basis he was a ‘father figure’ to his nephew,” the Government says.
But the Regulatory Policy Committee (RPC) said the Home Office had failed to demonstrate that it had properly considered alternatives to the proposed restrictions.
It added that its verdict was based on its scrutiny of the “evidence and analysis supporting the case for why regulation is necessary”.
Home Office analysis suggests around 55 per cent of applicants refused under the Article 8 reforms may remain in the UK without legal status.
Its impact assessment also forecasts thousands more appeals as a result of the changes, along with significant additional costs.
But the RPC said the department had not provided a sufficiently robust explanation of the assumptions behind its analysis or adequately assessed the wider consequences.
The watchdog says its rating is advisory and “does not reflect the merits of the policy itself”.
The criticism is all the more striking given how rarely the RPC issues a red rating.
Reforms face opposition from Labour MPs
Fourteen Labour MPs voted against the legislation at second reading, when it passed the Commons by 264 votes to 90 in July.
But the potential scale of the unrest within Labour is considerably larger than that vote suggests.
As The i Paper revealed last month, almost 80 Labour MPs signed a letter challenging the Government’s separate plans to overhaul indefinite leave to remain (ILR), which would raise the standard qualifying period for settlement from five years to 10.
The MPs warned in particular against applying the changes retrospectively to people already in the UK, arguing that targeting migrants who had followed the rules in place when they arrived did not pass the “fairness test”.
Those proposals are not contained in the Bill and are instead expected to be introduced through changes to the immigration rules.
The letter also raised wider concerns about the Government’s approach to immigration, including its “hostile rhetoric” on asylum and migration, and called for ministers to “refresh the policy and unite our coalition”.
The wider row has exposed the difficult political balancing act facing ministers: trying to show they are taking a tougher approach to immigration while keeping the support of Labour MPs.
Veteran Labour peer Alf Dubs has been particularly outspoken, accusing ministers of “performative cruelty” and warning that the reforms risk putting basic human rights and compassion to one side.
The Government insists the measures are necessary to restore confidence in the asylum system, prevent abuse of legal protections and make it easier to remove people who have no right to remain.
But the RPC’s intervention raises fresh questions over whether ministers have made a sufficiently strong evidence-based case for some of the most controversial elements of their immigration crackdown.
A Home Office spokesman said: “The rating does not impact the Immigration and Asylum Bill’s progression through Parliament.
“The opinion does not apply to the entire impact assessment.
“We welcome the RPC’s feedback. We are working with the RPC in actioning their recommendations and will resubmit the relevant sections to them in September.”