Standard Chartered Says Bitcoin Will Hit $100K in 2026 — But It Has Missed 3 Straight Year-End BTC Calls
Key Takeaways
Standard Chartered is maintaining its $100,000 Bitcoin target for the end of 2026, despite cutting that forecast twice from an earlier $300,000.
The bank’s published year-end Bitcoin targets also finished above BTC’s actual Dec. 31 price in 2023, 2024 and 2025.
The gaps varied considerably, and Standard Chartered revised its forecasts as ETF flows, US politics, corporate treasury buying and macro conditions changed.
Standard Chartered still expects Bitcoin to finish 2026 at $100,000, leaving BTC needing another substantial rally over the final four months of the year.
Previously, Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, reaffirmed the target in July after Bitcoin traded near $64,000, describing those levels as a buying opportunity rather than the beginning of a deeper structural decline.
Bitcoin has since recovered above $70,000, briefly reaching around $72,800 on Aug. 20. From $72,000, reaching $100,000 would require a further gain of roughly 39%. As of writing, Bitcoin is trading above $77,000.
The target is achievable mathematically. But Standard Chartered’s recent forecasting record also shows how difficult precise Dec. 31 Bitcoin calls have been.
Standard Chartered’s Last Three Bitcoin Year-End Calls
In July 2023, Standard Chartered forecast Bitcoin at $50,000 by the end of 2023, while simultaneously raising its end-2024 forecast to $120,000. The argument centered on improving miner profitability by reducing the amount of newly mined BTC being sold.
Bitcoin ultimately ended 2023 at approximately $42,265, around 15% below that $50,000 call.
Bitcoin Price in 2023. | Source: Bitbo
The following year produced a similar gap, although Standard Chartered’s forecast changed several times.
The bank raised its original 2024 target from $100,000 to $150,000 in March, driven largely by stronger-than-expected spot Bitcoin ETF flows.
After Donald Trump won the US election, Kendrick’s late-November forecast stood at $125,000 by year-end, with expectations of a more favorable US crypto regulatory environment.
$200K Bitcoin Call Was Cut Before 2025 Ended
Standard Chartered entered 2025 with an even more bullish forecast.
Kendrick repeatedly backed a $200,000 Bitcoin price by year-end, citing ETF inflows, corporate treasury purchases, and improving US crypto policy. As late as July 2025, the bank maintained that target and forecast $135,000 by the end of the third quarter.
Bitcoin reached a record high above $126,000 in October, but the rally reversed.
Bitcoin price in 2025. | Source: Bitbo
On Dec. 9, Standard Chartered formally cut its 2025 forecast in half, from $200,000 to $100,000, after concluding that corporate digital-asset treasury buying had weakened as a source of incremental demand. The bank simultaneously cut its 2026 forecast from $300,000 to $150,000.
Bitcoin eventually finished 2025 at $87,703, about 12.5% below that revised $100,000 call.
That made 2025 the third consecutive year in which Bitcoin’s Dec. 31 price finished below Standard Chartered’s published year-end target.
How the 2026 Bitcoin Target Fell From $300K to $100K
The current $100,000 call is itself the result of two revisions.
Standard Chartered initially projected $300,000 for the end of 2026, cut that to $150,000 in December 2025, and reduced it again to $100,000 in February 2026. At the time, Kendrick warned Bitcoin could first fall to around $50,000 as ETF outflows and an unfavorable macro backdrop weighed on the market.
By June, with Bitcoin near $63,000, Kendrick maintained the $100,000 target and argued that much of the selling pressure was approaching exhaustion.
The bank’s record does not determine whether its latest forecast succeeds or fails. It does show that its Bitcoin targets are moving estimates built around changing market assumptions, rather than fixed predictions.
With BTC now back above $70,000, the fourth year of that record will be settled by one number: Bitcoin’s price on Dec. 31, 2026.
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