Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered Bank, said on August 21 that Bitcoin could rise toward its all-time high of $126,000 (approximately ¥20 million) by year-end. Referring to his year-end target of $100,000 (approximately ¥16 million) set earlier this year, he stated that “for the first time this year, it may be too low,” signaling a revision to his previous outlook.

In a client note, Kendrick analyzed that the recent rally has been driven primarily by forced liquidations of short positions. At the same time, he highlighted that inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have begun to recover. He also noted that open interest in the futures market remains at low levels, which expands the room for new investors to enter the market.

“The rally so far has relied heavily on short covering, but the recovery in spot ETF inflows suggests the uptrend could spread to a broader investor base,” Kendrick explained. He anticipates that the recovery will accelerate further after October 6, with Bitcoin heading toward its previous all-time high of $126,000 by year-end.

Kendrick had cut his year-end Bitcoin price forecast from $150,000 (approximately ¥24 million) to $100,000 in February. At the time, he outlined a scenario in which Bitcoin would first fall to around $50,000 (approximately ¥7.9 million) before recovering to $100,000 by year-end. However, the sharp rebound in recent weeks has led him to acknowledge the possibility of a more bullish price trajectory.

Notably, the $150,000 target set in February had itself only just been slashed from a higher level at the end of the previous year. In a client note dated December 9, 2025, Kendrick halved his 2026 year-end target from $300,000 to $150,000, explaining that “future Bitcoin price appreciation will effectively be driven by ETF buying alone” (as reported by CNBC). He also pushed back the timeline for reaching his long-term target of $500,000 by two years to 2030. In other words, this latest upward revision marks the first time the forecast has moved in the opposite direction after two downward revisions—from $300,000 to $150,000 to $100,000—over the span of roughly eight months.

As of the afternoon of August 21, Bitcoin was trading at $76,712 (approximately ¥12 million), up about 7% from the previous day, with the market continuing a sharp recovery accompanied by short covering. This level represents a gain of roughly 24% over the past week (according to Cointelegraph data). Some analysts attribute part of the rebound to the U.S. Treasury Department’s expanded long-term bond buyback policy, which boosted market liquidity expectations and triggered forced liquidations of short positions (as reported by crypto media outlet The Block).

Evolution of Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin Price Forecasts

Date2026 Year-End TargetNotesDecember 9, 2025Halved to $150,000 (approx. ¥24 million)Revised down from $300,000. Explained that “gains will be driven by ETF buying alone”February 12, 2026Further cut to $100,000 (approx. ¥16 million)Scenario of a drop to $50,000 followed by year-end recoveryAugust 21, 2026$100,000 “may be too low”Anticipates a move toward $126,000 (previous all-time high)

Note: All prices are per Bitcoin in U.S. dollars. Yen conversions are approximate, calculated at ¥157 per dollar. Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since its October 2025 high above $126,000, and Standard Chartered’s forecast revisions during this period were consistently downward.

Recent Bitcoin Spot ETF Fund Flows

The recovery in fund inflows that Kendrick pointed to is also reflected in actual aggregate data. Bitcoin spot ETFs, which saw net outflows on four of the five trading days from August 10 to 14, have recorded consecutive net inflows since August 17.

DateNet Fund Flow (millions of dollars)NotesAugust 10▲144.7OutflowAugust 11+4.9Slight inflowAugust 12▲61.2OutflowAugust 13▲131.1OutflowAugust 14▲57.6OutflowAugust 17+297.6Turned to net inflowAugust 18+189.3Inflows continuedAugust 19+517.2Highest since May 4August 20+606.3Largest single-day inflow in August

(Compiled by crypto ETF data site TFTC, aggregating major funds including BlackRock’s IBIT. Cumulative August inflows totaled approximately $2.1 billion as of August 20.)

The causal chain of the rebound can be summarized as follows:

Market Implications

Kendrick’s revised outlook suggests that bullish sentiment toward Bitcoin is strengthening once again among institutional investors. Particularly noteworthy is his analysis that the driving force behind the rally is shifting from short covering to spot ETF inflows. While rallies driven by short covering are likely to prove temporary, inflows through ETFs are accompanied by medium- to long-term demand expansion, making them more conducive to sustained price appreciation.

The low level of open interest in the futures market also indicates that overheating concerns are limited, suggesting a favorable environment for additional buying. The specific date Kendrick cited—October 6—marks exactly one year from October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,198 (multiple U.S. media outlets reported the record high on that date). He likely anticipates that Bitcoin will test higher levels after passing the one-year mark from its previous peak.

It is worth noting that Kendrick’s year-end forecast has been revised downward twice over the past eight months—from $300,000 to $150,000 to $100,000—and the actual Bitcoin market has also been in a downtrend since its October 2025 high. This latest upward revision signal is ultimately based on the recent rebound, and it could change again depending on future price action.