Oil refinery flare ©Adobe Stock Images
Morgan Stanley identified Eni (BIT:ENI) as having the highest projected production growth among the European oil majors covered in its latest analysis of approximately 4,000 oil and gas fields.
The bank’s research estimated aggregate production growth for the sector at an annual rate of 2.9% between 2025 and 2030, up from 1.2% in its previous year’s forecast. Rolling four-year forward production increased by 8.3%.
The analysis used bottom-up information from multiple data consultants to assess production trends across major European energy companies.
Eni Production Growth Forecast at 4.5%
Eni recorded the highest projected production growth among the companies included in the study, with Morgan Stanley forecasting growth of 4.5% through 2030.
The bank’s analysis indicated that Eni’s production could continue increasing through 2034.
By comparison, Equinor (TG:DNQ) was identified as facing the largest production growth challenges among the European majors covered by the research.
Morgan Stanley Upgrades Shell to Overweight
Morgan Stanley also upgraded Shell (LSE:SHEL) to Overweight and designated the company as a Top Pick.
The bank expects a total shareholder return of 15% and anticipates an acceleration in dividend per share following recent changes in the business.
The rating and shareholder return expectations represent Morgan Stanley’s assessment rather than a guarantee of future performance.
BP Retains Overweight Rating
Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating on BP (LSE:BP.).
The firm cited its expectations that BP could reduce net debt faster than the company’s stated targets, alongside its assessment of the company’s valuation and potential catalysts.
The research forms part of Morgan Stanley’s broader assessment of production growth and shareholder returns among Europe’s major oil and gas companies.