ASOS on phone ©Adobe Stock Images
ASOS plc (LSE:ASC) was upgraded to “Equal Weight” from “Underweight” by Barclays on Monday, with the bank citing moderating sales declines, proceeds from asset disposals and expectations for debt refinancing.
Barclays doubled its 12-month price target for the British online fashion retailer to 420p from 210p, compared with a recent trading price of 418p.
The bank said ASOS continues to face competitive pressure from companies including Shein and resale platforms such as Vinted, while pointing to operational changes and reductions in debt as factors in its revised assessment.
Warehouse sales reduce ASOS debt
Barclays highlighted changes to ASOS’s balance sheet following the sale of two warehouses, located in Lichfield in the UK and Atlanta in the U.S.
The transactions generated £115 million in net cash proceeds. Barclays projects net debt, excluding leases, of £63 million at the end of fiscal 2026, compared with £320 million in fiscal 2024.
The bank expects ASOS to undertake a broader debt refinancing in early 2027, replacing its convertible bonds with a term loan facility on what Barclays expects to be more favourable terms.
“We forecast clear positive equity free cash flow in FY28 and an EFCF yield of 11%, providing a much-needed valuation anchor,” Barclays analysts wrote.
Barclays forecasts ASOS’s interest expense will decline to £36 million in fiscal 2028 from £75 million in fiscal 2025.
Barclays forecasts return to GMV growth in FY27
Barclays expects the decline in ASOS’s group gross merchandise value to narrow to 5.5% in fiscal 2026.
The bank forecasts group GMV growth of 2.7% in fiscal 2027.
In its sector coverage, Barclays maintained an “Overweight” rating on German online fashion retailer Zalando SE and a €34.00 price target, citing the company’s balance sheet and existing cash generation.