New Senedd election poll shows tight race to run Wales as Plaid in narrow lead

More in Common’s first MRP poll of the Senedd election suggests who will be the largest party after Election Day on May 7 and the deal they may have to strike

00:01, 20 Apr 2026Updated 09:01, 20 Apr 2026

Leaders of Wales’ political parties – l-r Leader of Welsh Liberal Democrats, Jane Dodds,
Leader of Plaid Cymru, Rhun ap Iorwerth, Leader of the Wales Green party , Anthony Slaughter, Leader of Reform in Wales, Dan Thomas, Welsh Labour leader/ First minister for Wales, Eluned Morgan and Welsh Conservative leader, Darren Millar. (Image: Rob Browne/WalesOnline)

Plaid Cymru’s lead in the Senedd election race is narrow and would leave the party with few options if it seeks to form the next government in Wales, a new poll shows.

The survey, conducted by More in Common, places Plaid Cymru marginally ahead of Reform as the largest party in the Welsh Parliament following the election on May 7.

Nevertheless, it is not projected to achieve an outright majority, and would leave it in a weak position if it seeks to form the next government.

Plaid’s leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has said he would prefer to govern as a minority administration without a coalition partner. However the smaller the party’s lead, the weaker it will be and the fewer options it will have when it seeks agreements to pass legislation.

And if the party prefers to try to form a coalition, the More in Common polling suggests the party may be required to negotiate an agreement with Welsh Labour – which has governed Wales for over two decades – in order to form an administration.

More in Common’s inaugural MRP poll for this Senedd election, which surveyed over 2,500 people throughout Wales, has projected Plaid Cymru will secure 30 seats, Reform 28, and Welsh Labour 24. Stay in the know by making sure you’re receiving our daily newsletter

The Welsh Greens, projected to claim four seats, and the Welsh Liberal Democrats, projected to win three, have both signalled their willingness to enter discussions with Plaid Cymru, should it emerge as the largest party in the Senedd.

However, More in Common’s polling suggests a pact between Plaid Cymru and Labour may represent the only feasible path to a majority government, given that 49 seats are required for a majority.

The two parties have previously formed a coalition, with Plaid also having collaborated with the Welsh Labour government on numerous policy matters in the past.

Yet Plaid Cymru ended its most recent partnership in 2024 and has built its campaign around delivering “new leadership” for Wales and its determination to “replace” Labour in government.

The More in Common survey indicates Reform is poised to secure substantial gains across the entire country, with some of its most impressive showings expected in the south Wales Valleys.

The poll findings are an improvement for Plaid Cymru on the last More in Common poll, which suggested Plaid and Reform were both on track for 28 seats and Labour 26. A recent JL Partners poll for the Telegraph put Plaid on course for 33 seats to Reform’s 29 and Labour 17. While the last YouGov poll in March projected a much stronger showing for Plaid, putting them on track for 43 seats to Reform’s 30 and Labour’s 13.

In stark contrast to the three leading parties, the Welsh Conservatives, who served as the official opposition following the previous Senedd election, are forecast to slip to fourth place, capturing just seven seats.

Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said: “Looking at Wales today, it’s hard to believe that the 2024 general election was less than two years ago – the political map has changed so dramatically since Labour won decisively in Wales.

“Having governed in Wales for 28 years, Labour is set to be pushed into third place – and for the first time we could see Wales led by a non-Labour first minister.

“Plaid Cymru are the clear beneficiaries of a country ready for change, and could be on course to lead a Welsh government for the first time.

“But it may be a tricky start – potentially requiring sharing power with a weakened Labour Party that, despite its losses, could still wield considerable influence over the shape of any coalition.

“The other story of this election is Reform’s breakthrough,” he added.

“Their support spans the whole country – beyond the valleys to Cardiff and the north east – they have firmly displaced the Conservatives as the party of the Welsh right.”

The More in Common poll questioned 2,519 eligible voters in Wales during the period from January through to April.