Plaid is in the lead in all three of the biggest polls of the Senedd election so far – but with significant differences for how strong a future Rhun ap Iorwerth government might be
Leader of Plaid Cymru Rhun ap Iorwerth smiles during campaigning
Three pollsters have so far taken a significant interest in this year’s Wales Parliament election – and there are significant differences in what they are finding.
YouGov, JL Partners and More in Common have all attempted what they call MRP polls, in which they use surveys of more than 2,000 adults in Wales to project the result in every constituency and therefore the makeup of the next Senedd.
All three polls project Plaid Cymru to be the winner of the election with the most seats. All three expect Reform UK to be in second place and Labour to trail in third.
But the numbers of seats they are projecting for each party are very different and would have a huge impact on the kind of government that will emerge after the votes are counted on Friday , May 8, the day after the election.
Plaid’s Rhun ap Iowerth is hoping for a strong enough lead that he can run a minority government and strike deals with opposition parties like the Greens or Lib Dems as he needs to pass legislation. Yet a very slim lead, of the kind projected by the latest More in Common poll, could rob him of that luxury and leave him with only one route to the support he will need to win a vote in the Senedd – the backing of a strong Labour minority group.
All polls are just a guide to public opinion and all three of the major pollsters have done their surveys at different times and with different methods. Their differences show both the things we can say with increasing confidence about the upcoming election and the huge uncertainty that remains with three weeks to go. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here
The three polls:More in Common
Headline seat findings:
Plaid: 30, Reform: 28, Labour: 24, Conservative: 7, Green Party 4, Lib Dem: 3
Date of survey
January 30 to April 10 – 2, 5919 adults
Analysis:
This would be a messy election result for everyone. To govern, a party would need to be able to count on the support of 49 votes in the 96-seat chamber.
With 30 seats, Plaid Cymru is set to narrowly become the largest party in the Senedd, but 19 short of the 49 needed to form a majority.
Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has suggested he would opt for a minority government. However to pass legislation he would still need another party’s support. The maths in this poll suggests that Labour would be his only option.
Together Plaid and Labour would have 54 seats, exceeding the 49 needed for a majority, but leaving Plaid at the mercy of the minority Labour group.
It’s hard to see any viable coalition Reform could put together as none of the Greens, Labour and Plaid would work with Nigel Farage’s party.
Other notable findings:
This poll projects Reform and Labour’s support much more strongly than either other pollster, suggesting Plaid will only be ahead in seats along the west coast of Wales.
This poll also suggests that First Minister Eluned Morgan would manage to keep her seat in the Ceredigion Penfro seat, something others have projected she would not manage.
You can see the individual seat projections for every seat by hovering over the constituency on the map above. However it’s also notable that this polling was carried out over a much longer period than the surveys by either other pollster.
What the pollster says:
Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said: “Looking at Wales today, it’s hard to believe that the 2024 General Election was less than two years ago – the political map has changed so dramatically since Labour won decisively in Wales. Having governed in Wales for 28 years, Labour is set to be pushed into third place – and for the first time we could see Wales led by a non-Labour First Minister.
“Plaid Cymru are the clear beneficiaries of a country ready for change, and could be on course to lead a Welsh Government for the first time. But it may be a tricky start – potentially requiring sharing power with a weakened Labour Party that, despite its losses, could still wield considerable influence over the shape of any coalition.
“The other story of this election is Reform’s breakthrough. Their support spans the whole country – beyond the valleys to Cardiff and the north-east – they have firmly displaced the Conservatives as the party of the Welsh right.”
JL Partners
Headline seat findings:
Plaid: 33, Reform: 29, Labour: 17, Green Party: 3
Date of survey
March 31st to April 13th – 2, 050 adults
Analysis:
This poll was carried out for the Daily Telegraph and neither it, nor its pollster JL Partners, has published the full seat projection it has calculated from its findings.
However, there is unlikely to be any comfort for Plaid’s Rhun ap Iorwerth hiding there. The vote share that the pollster has published suggests that it has the Tories in fourth place with 12.3% of the vote, with the Green Party on 9.2% and the Lib Dems on 5.6% of the vote.
If this projection is fulfilled at the election on May 7, Plaid’s 33 seats would put it in a slightly stronger position than in the More in Common poll, but it’s unlikely to be enough. Plaid would still need a further 16 votes and it’s unlikely based on these findings that the Greens and Lib Dems would be enough.
Notable findings
Labour would only be in the lead in one of Wales’ 16 constituencies according to this poll, in one of the two Cardiff constituencies. Reform leads in five constituencies and Plaid in ten.
Although the difference in seats between Plaid and Reform in this poll is only two greater than in the More in Common poll, JL Partners projects Plaid to be tracking four percentage points ahead at 28.8% to Reform’s 24.8%, while More in Common has them almost neck and neck at just over 25% each.
You Gov
Headline seat findings:
Plaid: 43, Reform: 30, Labour: 12, Green Party: 10, Conservative Party: 1
Date of survey
March 9 to March 18 – 2, 978 adults
Analysis
YouGov has the most experience of the three pollsters so far working in Wales ahead of this election. It’s political barometer polls for Cardiff University and ITV have been a mainstay of Welsh politics for many years.
It is this poll that will be giving Plaid hope of forming a stable minority administration.. Plaid’s 43 seats would mean it would need six further votes to pass its legislation and, crucially, get its annual spending plans through the Senedd. Those votes could come from either the Green Party or Welsh Labour under this projection making Plaid a much stronger administration that is no dependent on any one party.
With just 12 seats, Labour would be a much weaker group shorn of many of its most prominent members.
Notable findings
YouGov is projecting Labour’s vote share far more pessimistically than JL Partners or more in Common. It suggest Labour will only get around 13% vote share, compared to nearly 16% by JL Partners and 20% by More in Common.
This suggests that winning over Labour voters is crucial to Plaid’s hopes of having a strong administration after May’s election – and why it is so keen to present itself as the only way of stopping Reform.
The Lib Dems would win no seats and the Conservatives just one under YouGov’s projections whereas the 12% support the Green’s are projected to receive tips them over into the position of being a significant player because of the way the D’Hondt system of proportional representation works. However, it’s likely that just small shifts could change significantly how those last seats are shared out.
It’s hard to see any viable coalition Reform could put together as the Greens, Labour and Plaid would not work with them.
A new poll projects Plaid Cymru and Reform UK would be just two seats apart in the next Senedd. This projects Plaid Cymru would take 30 and Reform UK would be just behind on 28. This poll is by More In Common, there is regular polling by YouGov, a different pollster.
YouGov polling has shown disastrous projections for Labour, their most recent in March showed the party – which is currently in power – would get just 13 seats. This poll projects they could take 24.
The seat breakdown in the most recent More in Common MRP poll:
Bangor Conwy Môn
Plaid: 3, Reform: 1, Labour: 1, Conservatives: 1
Clwyd
Labour: 2, Reform UK, 2, Plaid: 1, Conservatives: 1
Fflint Wrecsam
Labour: 2, Plaid: 1, Reform UK: 1, Green Party: 1, Conservatives: 1
Gwynedd Maldwyn
Plaid Cymru: 3, Reform UK: 2, Labour: 1
Ceredigion Penfro
Plaid Cymru: 3, Reform UK: 1, Conservative: 1, Labour: 1
Sir Gaerfyrddin
Plaid Cymru: 3, Reform UK: 2, Labour: 1
Gŵyr Abertawe
Reform UK: 2, Plaid Cymru: 2, Labour: 2
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd
Reform UK: 2, Labour: 1, Lib Dem: 1, Plaid Cymru: 1, Conservatives: 1
Afan Ogwr Rhondda
Reform UK: 3, Plaid Cymru: 2, Labour: 1
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr
Reform UK: 2, Plaid Cymru: 2, Labour: 2
Blaenau Gwent Caerffilii Rhymni
Reform UK: 2, Labour: 1, Plaid Cymru: 2, Conservative: 1
Sir Fynwy Torfaen
Labour: 2, Reform UK: 1, Conservatives: 1, Lib Dem: 1, Plaid Cymru: 1
Casnewydd Islwyn
Reform UK: 3, Labour: 1, Plaid Cymru: 1, Green Party: 1
Caerdydd Penarth
Labour: 2, Plaid Cymru: 2, Green Party: 1, Reform UK: 1
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf
Labour: 2, Reform UK: 1, Plaid Cymru: 1, Lib Dem: 1, Green Party: 1
Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg
Reform UK: 2, Plaid Cymru: 2, Labour: 2
Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said: “Looking at Wales today, it’s hard to believe that the 2024 General Election was less than two years ago – the political map has changed so dramatically since Labour won decisively in Wales. Having governed in Wales for 28 years, Labour is set to be pushed into third place – and for the first time we could see Wales led by a non-Labour First Minister.
“Plaid Cymru are the clear beneficiaries of a country ready for change, and could be on course to lead a Welsh Government for the first time. But it may be a tricky start – potentially requiring sharing power with a weakened Labour Party that, despite its losses, could still wield considerable influence over the shape of any coalition.
“The other story of this election is Reform’s breakthrough. Their support spans the whole country – beyond the valleys to Cardiff and the north-east – they have firmly displaced the Conservatives as the party of the Welsh right.”