Strohn says that finding enough volunteers will be the “biggest problem”, but military recruitment is up by 10 per cent since last year, and applications have climbed by 20 per cent. If all else fails, Merz has the option of reintroducing conscription, which Germany suspended in 2011.
As for industrial capacity, Germany has Europe’s biggest economy and its largest manufacturing sector. Rheinmetall, a defence giant headquartered in Düsseldorf, plans to make 1.5 million shells next year, securing its place as Europe’s number one producer of ammunition for tanks and artillery.
If any European country can build the industrial base for rapid military expansion, it is Germany. And Strohn predicts that the requisite political will is likely to endure, reflecting a crucial hardening of public opinion, with a poll last year finding that two-thirds of Germans backed higher defence spending.
“German society has changed quite a bit,” he says. “If you had asked me five years ago, I would have said that this isn’t going to last, and that this military strategy document will just disappear somewhere. But something has changed quite drastically in the last five years.”
Previous governments in Berlin felt that the burden of history must inhibit any assertion of German military leadership. Now, Boris Pistorius, the German defence minister, says: “The signal must be that Germany is leading the way – as a pacemaker among the European nations.”
Putin’s aggression is the principal cause of this profound change. Growing doubts about Trump’s commitment to Nato have also helped convince Germany’s government and people that they must play their full part in Europe’s defence, commensurate with their economic weight.