Shabana Mahmood is under intense pressure to slash migration (Image: Getty)
Net migration will be the “only source of population growth in the UK over the next 25 years” as deaths regularly exceed births, new analysis claims. A staggering 7.2 million foreign nationals will move to England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland between 2024 and 2034, adding 2.2 million to the population.
The number of recorded deaths will exceed the number of babies being born this year, data scientists warned, with the trend set to continue for a quarter of a century. The projections, by the ONS, claimed 6.39 million babies will be born between 2024 and 2034, while 6.84 million people will die. Overall, the population will hit 71 million.
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp said: “This is a catastrophic projection. Mass immigration undermines our society and low wage immigration is bad for the economy.
“British people feel this in lower wages, longer waiting lists for public services and housing shortages. Labour have opened the door without any plan to deal with the consequences, and the ONS shows this will continue to impact us into the 2030s.
“These 2.2 million will mostly arrive with legal visas that Parliament could stop. That is why the next Conservative Government will introduce a binding annual immigration cap at a very low level, close the loopholes that let temporary visa holders stay indefinitely and tighten and extend the conditions for ILR.
“We only want a small number of very high skilled migrants and no low skill migrants at all. But sadly, Labour do not have the backbone to deliver this.”
Statisticians revealed: “Net migration is projected to be the only source of population growth in the UK over the next 25 years, as deaths are expected to exceed births by 2.5 million.
“Overall, it is projected that the population will grow by 3.1 million, with projected net migration totalling 5.6 million between mid-2024 and mid-2049.
“We project that net migration will reach the long‑term assumption of 230,000 a year from mid-2027 onwards.”
Data scientists added: “Net migration remains the only source of expected population growth, though at a lower level than in our previous projections.
“There are projected to be around 450,000 more deaths than births over the 10 years between mid-2024 and mid-2034. Deaths are projected to exceed births in the UK from mid-2026, with mid-2025 being the last year in which births are slightly higher.”
Britain’s record levels of migration over the first part of this decade have prompted intense debate over its economic impacts.
A staggering 1,469,000 migrants moved to the UK in the year to March 2023.
The number of arrivals fell slightly to 1,299,000 in the year to June 2024, before dropping again to 898,000 last year.
Net migration, which takes into account the number of people leaving the UK, surged to a record high of 944,000 in the year ending March 2023. It hit 764,000 in 2022, before dropping to 649,000 in June 2024.
It fell to 204,000 in the year to September 2025 as the number of people leaving the country hit the highest level for a century.
Officials believe one in 30 people living in the UK arrived between 2021 and 2024.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood compared the influx to “freedom of movement”.
The Home Office has predicted 1.6 million people could be given indefinite leave to remain – making them eligible for benefits – if nothing is done. Ms Mahmood insists the rules must be changed or they “will be able to access social housing and the welfare state”, but she is facing opposition from Labour MPs.
Migrants who arrived in the so-called ‘Boris Wave’ face a 10 to 15-year wait to apply for settlement rights, under Labour’s plans, amid fears over an influx of low-skilled workers, particularly on the abused Health and Social Care Visa.
Under Labour’s plans, migrants could be barred from claiming benefits unless they become British citizens.
Ms Mahmood said those relying on handouts must wait 20 to 30 years to receive indefinite leave to remain.
Arrivals applying to settle after 10 years must have no criminal record, speak English to A-level standards and have no debt.
But left-wing Labour MPs, trade union bosses and health chiefs are trying to force the Home Secretary to water down her plans.