Top elections expert Robert Hayward said Labour losses will be nationwide in a nightmare analysis as millions prepare to head to the polls on Thursday next week
Keir Starmer faces losing over 1,800 councillors in next week’s local elections(Image: Tayfun Salci/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock)
Keir Starmer’s Labour faces losing over 1,800 councillors in next week’s crunch local elections, a top elections expert has forecast.
Lord Robert Hayward said the party’s losses will be nationwide in a nightmare analysis as millions prepare to head to the polls on Thursday next week. Council elections are being held across England while key votes also take place in the devolved administrations of Scotland and Labour-controlled Wales.
According to Lord Hayward – the Tory peer who has analysed local elections for many years – Labour will lose 1,850 seats across the country. Kemi Badenoch ’s Tories will also lose 600 councillors in seats last contested in 2021 as the party benefitted from a ‘vaccine bounce’ in the national polls.
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Lord Hayward said Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform UK will be the biggest winner from both Labour and Tory losses – gaining 1,550 seats from a low base. Meanwhile, Zack Polanski’s left-wing Green Party is on course to gain 500 seats in London and middle class areas of other cities, the expert said.
Referring to recent reports 1,500 losses for Labour could trigger a “collective nervous breakdown” among the Cabinet, Lord Hayward said: “My figures take them well above that figure, well above. My sense is some of the Labour Party are not prepared for the losses that are resulting from what is in effect a two-pronged attack from both Reform in the Midlands and the North and from Greens in some of the big cities, and in particular in London.”
His comments come as the elections are being seen as a make-or-break moment for the Prime Minister after a turbulent week at the heart of government over the Peter Mandelson scandal. Speaking earlier, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, suggested Labour should take a “different course” after the May elections. He told Bloomberg he expected the results to be “challenging”, adding: “It’s got to be a moment of reflection.”
Mr Burnham also failed to rule out another bid at a Westminster comeback – despite being blocked by Mr Starmer and Labour’s governing body back in February. He said: “The politics we’ve pioneered as mayors: place first, not party first — that needs to go national, and so we do need to reform Westminster. I can’t remove the kind of feeling that someday I will try and go back.” The Labour Mayor added: “I’m not ruling it out.”
Lord Hayward also said in his analysis the Liberal Democrats are on course to gain 150 seats while independent candidates will gain around 250 seats. In total, over 5,000 council seats are up for grabs next week, including all 32 boroughs in the capital.
A Labour campaign source told The Mirror: “Mid-term elections are normally difficult for the party of government. These elections are no different. We’re out speaking to people across the country and fighting for every vote. We have a really positive story to tell on the NHS, investment in local areas, and what we’re doing to support families with the cost of living. There’s a clear choice next Thursday though: Labour on your side, with your local Labour council working in partnership with a Labour Government. Or Nigel Farage and Reform, who would put your family, your NHS and your community at risk.”
Lord Hayward’s analysis follows a YouGov poll last week showing Labour faces “historic losses” in its heartland of London as the Greens eat into the party’s vote. The pollster’s MRP survey said Labour will maintain the biggest vote share in around 15 of the councils it currently holds in the capital. This is down six compared to the 2022 London borough elections.
But elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice suggested this week the gap between Labour in London and the Greens was “a very substantial one”. He added: “Therefore, it’s whether or not the Greens could actually do well to move from yes, gaining votes from Labour, picking up the odd seat in wards here or there, to actually making a significant breakthrough. It’s not clear to me at present that that’s where we’re at.”