The visit of King Charles III to the United States from April 27 to 30 ostensibly aims to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the United States’ independence from the United Kingdom. It is becoming a mission to help salvage the ‘special relationship’ between the two countries, as Winston Churchill termed it in 1946. At stake is the UK’s place in the world: should it continue to embrace the US or move closer to Europe?

The King faces the fallout from the scandal surrounding the late Jeffrey Epstein and the sexual trafficker’s connections with the British elite, notably the monarch’s brother, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, and the former ambassador to Washington, Peter Mandelson. More pressing is whether royal charm can ease the tension between British and American leaders: Donald Trump has lost patience with the UK over Iran — ‘when we needed them, they weren’t there’ — and Sir Keir Starmer has tired of flattering Trump — ‘I will not yield’ to US pressure, he declared this month in parliament.

This is the worst rift between the allies since the 1956 Suez Crisis, when the UK, France, and Israel attacked Egypt to seize control of the Suez Canal and overthrow its nationalist leader, Gamal Abdel Nasser; US anger forced them to withdraw. Now the US has allied with Israel in a war against Iran; European allies are dismayed but unable to stop the turmoil.

For a time, Sir Keir got along well with Trump. In their meeting at the White House in February 2025, he offered Trump an invitation for an unprecedented second state visit to the UK. In May, they reached an agreement to reduce Trump’s high tariffs. The NATO summit in June also went well, as allies committed to increasing defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035, plus an additional 1.5% on defence-related infrastructure. Trump positioned himself as the saviour of NATO. At Windsor Castle in September, the president waxed lyrical: the US and the UK were ‘like two notes in a chord, or two verses of the same poem.’

The war in Iran brought the situation to a head. Trump branded the Europeans ‘cowards’ for restricting the use of their bases and refusing to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Unfortunately, the poetry has vanished. Trump was irritated by European resistance to his courting of Russia at Ukraine’s expense, and his renewed demand to annex Greenland, a Danish territory. The war in Iran brought the situation to a head. Trump branded the Europeans ‘cowards’ for restricting the use of their bases and refusing to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The UK is by no means the only target of his ire, but his attacks have particular force due to the historical closeness between the two countries.

Public Opinion, Increasingly Disenchanted

Always more special for the UK than for the US, the relationship is being torn apart by many forces. The UK’s role as a bridge between the US and Europe, questionable at best, has collapsed with its exit from the European Union. The US has sought to distance itself from Europe to contain a rising China. To make matters worse, Trump holds disdain for the norms and alliances the UK values so highly. The MAGA online platform, moreover, portrays the UK as a land of violent crime and rampant Islamism.

US and UK public opinions are increasingly disenchanted. Opinion polls suggest that Americans and Britons still held each other in high regard at the start of the century: over 80% of respondents in each country claimed to have a favourable opinion of the other. American approval of the UK has fallen from 91% to 76% in the past five years. British opinion has deteriorated more gradually but more sharply: only 34% now express a positive view of the US. Both Americans and Britons rate other countries, such as Denmark, France, and Japan, more favourably. The views of Americans and Britons on each other’s leading public figures are not exactly flattering either.

Senior British officials maintain that relations with the US are, like the sea, ‘choppy on the surface, but calm beneath.’ Trump and Keir may see political advantage in trading barbs, but their subordinates continue to work closely, especially on military and intelligence matters. A problem for the UK is that Republicans, who normally defend allies, also tend to take a hawkish stance on Iran and are irritated by European reservations.

Disarmed to the Teeth

A persistent criticism concerns the dwindling of British armed forces. The UK boasts nuclear deterrence, albeit dependent on extensive US assistance, along with two aircraft carriers, F-35 stealth jets, nuclear-powered attack submarines, deployable ground forces, top-tier special forces, and more. However, the reality is less impressive. The UK deployed an armoured division — between 26,000 and 28,000 soldiers — as the main formation fighting alongside the US against Iraq in 1991 and 2003. Today, as a senior officer publicly admitted, it would struggle to field even an armoured brigade — between 3,000 and 5,000 soldiers. Air defence and artillery batteries are also woefully scarce.

The aircraft carriers have had issues with their propeller shafts and both are out of service for maintenance — Trump recently mocked them as ‘toys’ compared to the American ones. The UK ended its permanent naval presence in the Gulf earlier this year and last month struggled to muster a destroyer to help protect Cyprus. Only two of the seven frigates and one of the five active attack submarines are believed to be deployed. The air force’s F-35s lack long-range weapons, such as the Storm Shadow cruise missiles used by older Typhoon jets.

Currently, the Trump administration refers to Israel, not the UK, as the US’s ‘model ally.’

Insiders admit that British forces are ‘exposed’ when not fighting alongside the Americans, whose might has masked many of the UK’s shortcomings. They point out that equipment programmes have a £28 billion ($38 billion) funding shortfall, even before adding new demands from last year’s Strategic Defence Review (SDR).

The ten-year defence investment plan, promised last autumn, has yet to be published, leading George Robertson, former NATO Secretary-General and co-author of the SDR, to denounce a ‘corrosive complacency.’ Currently, the Trump administration refers to Israel, not the UK, as the US’s ‘model ally.’