Are we ready for war? Welcome to The i Paper’s opinion series in which our writers tackle a question that, until recently, few had thought to consider.
• Britain is closer to nuclear war than you think. This is how it will unfold
• This generation of Britons couldn’t handle the death toll of a modern war
• Russia is aiming to control the UK. It would tear society apart
• Britain’s tanks would be eviscerated in a war with Russia. Here’s how to fix them
• The UK’s plan for civilians in a war is terrifying – you’re on your own
• Britain’s overseas territories are vulnerable – and Putin and Xi know it
The war in the Gulf has brought home two major points: first, that the world has truly entered a precarious phase, with larger wars between states more likely than not; and second, that we are far from ready to face such a world.
There is little use in sugar-coating this.
The decade ahead will see more inter-state wars. Deeper long-term tensions are brewing. China continues to pursue its ambitions over Taiwan. Strategic competition between the US and China carries substantial global implications if it spins out of control. Traditional alliances that reassured us the West would maintain the military edge and global balance are no longer as certain, and even close allies seem to have little hesitation in belittling the sacrifices of Nato member states that rushed to defend them. Russia continues to show no sign of curbing its imperial ambitions, even after deaths of around one million of its soldiers.
It is no surprise, then, that the International Committee of the Red Cross calculates the number of armed conflicts continues to climb, with around 130 unfolding in 2024 — double the number from a decade ago. Global defence spending has reached $2.6trn (£1.9trn) in 2025. A new nuclear arms race is unfolding at the periphery of our awareness. Advances in AI and its military applications pose serious risks to us all. Cheap drones launched in large numbers inevitably see some penetrate highly sophisticated and expensive air defence systems designed to respond to the equally sophisticated — and costly — platforms of yesterday.
The truth is we are far from ready, militarily, to keep Britain safe in such a world. If you ask an opposition politician, this is all Keir Starmer’s fault. Besides being dull and pointless, such jibes obscure the reality that more than a decade of underfunding and deliberate cuts to British defence, security, and diplomacy have left the UK vulnerable and underprepared. If you follow government statements, then, inshallah, we may see the defence budget rise to just under 3 per cent of GDP, which in practical terms is barely enough to maintain the current status quo. Any commitment below 5 per cent of GDP is woefully insufficient.
Even if the Government were to find that elusive magic money tree, there is no single solution, no single weapon, aircraft, missile, deal, or procurement programme that can provide a solid foundation on its own. Theatrics from politicians are no longer welcome. Using the worrying state of UK defence for short-term political gain does not serve the nation.
Take, for example, the promise of more money for defence. Simply throwing more money at the problem will not suffice. Reflecting on how that money is used, where investments go, and what structures are needed to use it effectively is just as important as increasing funding.
Take another example: the idea of conscription. Yes, the British Army is the smallest it has ever been. It cannot sustain fighting a prolonged war beyond shorter, more focused deployments. It would need to double its numbers to serve as a credible deterrent force and to manage a sudden expansion if required.
At the moment, however, conscription would merely overburden the regular forces, with very little provision in place to integrate and manage large numbers of new recruits. The UK needs to play to its strengths in highly professionalised forces, rather than simply relying on larger numbers of soldiers. We are already struggling to effectively utilise our reserves and have clear plans on how to bring back veterans. Proposals for conscription are largely a distraction.
The British public can no longer transfer the responsibility of thinking about defence to politicians, the vast majority of whom are not equipped to do so. This points towards the main reason UK is not ready for war. Men and women entrusted with our safety know what they need, and they are more than capable of doing their jobs. For the past decade, I have had the privilege of seeing our forces up close, teaching in their training institutions and supporting their analysis and strategic thinking. They continue to command global respect for their professionalism, and rightly so.
If Britain’s defence and security are failing to meet today’s challenges, it is not because of them. It is because we, the British public, have for too long treated these issues as distant and irrelevant to our daily lives. The starting point of our conversation can no longer be 2003 and the invasion of Iraq, but 2026 and the world as it stands today and what that means for us all. And it means strengthening British defence.
Make no mistake: this is not merely a call for more weapons. Preparing for war also requires investing in peace. Increasing defence and security spending must go hand in hand with increasing investment in diplomacy and aid. These are not luxuries; they are integral to our safety and prosperity. It also requires much from non-state actors — charities, universities, and local associations working together at home and abroad. Small and medium-sized businesses, farms, and food producers are as important as the large defence companies that build submarines.
Tomorrow’s wars will look very different. They will be more lethal; the world more interconnected; the lines between when they begin and end, and between battlefield and homeland, more blurred than ever. The role played by each and every citizen is going to be more important than ever. All of these insights are already visible in Ukraine. If Ukraine has been able to defend itself in such an awe inspiring way, it did because of the commitment, creativity and productivity of its people as well as courage of its soldiers.
It is not unreasonable to think that in 2022 we witnessed the soft launch of the Third World War in Ukraine, with North Korean soldiers dying in support of Russia’s invasion on European soil. The war in Iran and its potential consequences are not isolated from the broader global context and its complex web of developments. Like in a good detective film, the clues are in front of us, if only we choose to see them. We can no longer ignore the possibility of a larger war ahead and take comfort merely in remembering the sacrifices of previous generations. It is now our generation’s duty to rise to the challenge.