Ministers are expected to back a major North Sea gas project that could supply energy for around a million UK homes, easing price pressures caused by Tehran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is leaning towards giving the go-ahead for the Shell-operated Jackdaw gas field to start drilling – the first major North Sea oil and gas development in almost a decade.
Jackdaw – located around 150 miles off Aberdeen – could begin production within months, supplying gas by winter if regulatory hurdles are cleared quickly, as most infrastructure is already in place.
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Although privately funded, the UK controls a large section of the North Sea, giving it a legal right to approve and tax oil and gas production.
Industry estimates suggest the Jackdaw gas field could supply roughly 6 per cent of UK future gas output.
Climate versus energy security forcing the Government’s hand
The Jackdaw decision would mark a significant policy shift for Miliband, who previously said major fossil fuel projects were incompatible with the UK’s climate goals.
Whitehall officials say Government insiders believe Miliband’s expected approval of the project follows a reassessment of its compatibility with carbon targets under updated regulatory criteria.
Miliband’s final decision is still subject to review by the Offshore Petroleum Regulator for Environment and Decommissioning using new criteria.
The project has been delayed since 2024 after a legal ruling required fresh consideration of emissions from burning extracted fossil fuels.
Political split across Westminster and Holyrood
The move exposes deepening divisions within UK politics over the future of North Sea oil and gas.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has signalled support for increased domestic drilling on economic and energy security grounds.
In Scotland, First Minister John Swinney has recently softened the SNP’s position, citing geopolitical instability and shifting the party away from its previous opposition to new drilling.
However, the decision is expected to reignite tensions with the Scottish Greens, who warn that expanding fossil fuel production risks undermining climate commitments.
Government sources believe Miliband’s decision might be delayed until after Scotland’s election on Thursday 7 May.
Energy security push
The expected approval comes as policymakers scramble to stabilise energy markets following disruption caused by the Iran conflict and near total closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Reports suggest UK ministers believe domestic production could help cushion households from price spikes driven by global supply shocks.
However, critics argue the impact on bills is likely to be limited, with climate campaigners warning the field would make only a marginal difference to overall UK gas supply.
Industry and union pressure
Energy firms and unions, including the GMB, have urged ministers to approve the project, arguing it could support thousands of jobs and strengthen UK energy independence.
The project, although privately funded by Shell, is projected to yield hundreds of millions to several billion pounds in UK tax revenue over its lifetime, depending on gas prices and production levels.
Environmental groups, however, say the long-term impact on energy bills will be negligible and argue that investment should instead focus on renewables, insulation and heat pump roll-out.
Could Rosebank also begin production?
The decision comes alongside continued scrutiny of other major North Sea projects, including the larger Rosebank oil field west of Shetland, which has faced legal and environmental challenges but is seen by industry as a significant future source of UK oil production.
Rosebank is a large undeveloped oil field, operated by Equinor and Ithaca Energy, which could become one of the UK’s biggest new North Sea projects if fully developed.
It is estimated to contain around 300 million barrels of oil equivalent, with peak production expected to reach roughly 70,000–90,000 barrels a day in its early years.
Rosebank’s oil would be sold into global markets rather than reserved for UK use, and the field is not expected to begin production until later in the decade, with first output likely around 2026–2027 if approvals proceed.
Climate versus security dilemma
The decision highlights the central tension now facing UK energy policy: whether to prioritise short-term security of supply amid global instability, or accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels to meet net zero targets.
Ministers insist both goals can be balanced, arguing that domestic gas production has a lower emissions footprint than imported liquefied natural gas.