(Bloomberg) — Commodities are in a “super-squeeze” that will worsen if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.

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“The longer the strait is closed, the more inventories are run down, the more likely it is that we reach ‘tipping points’ in the markets for some commodities,” analysts including Paul Bloxham said in a June 1 report. Still, knowing exactly when that might happen is hard to determine, they added.

Raw materials hit a record in mid-May, before paring gains as the US stepped up efforts to extend a truce in its war with Iran, which could reopen the critical waterway and eventually pave a way for an end to the conflict. Beyond the Middle East, HSBC’s broad outlook also highlighted other bullish factors for commodities, including rising consumption for base metals such as copper, and a looming El Niño weather event that may hurt crop supplies.

The overall commodities cycle remains in a so-called super-bull phase, but “this is very different to earlier ‘super-cycles’, because it is driven by supply disruptions,” the analysts said. “Rather than a ‘super-cycle’, we have been calling it a ‘super-squeeze’,” they said, highlighting earlier bank research.

With Hormuz still all-but shuttered, oil stockpiles “may reach critical functional lows, which could see sharper — non-linear — price rises and genuine shortages,” they warned. In peacetime, the waterway — which links the Persian Gulf to global markets — carried a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.

Global oil benchmark Brent traded near $94 a barrel on Tuesday after a modest drop, well below Iran-war highs above $126. in metals, aluminum hit a four-year high, while copper was at $13,976 a ton, up 13% this year.

For aluminum, “the structural demand story is positive, but a key driver of late has been the damage to smelting capacity in the Middle East,” the analysts said. “The copper price rise is primarily a demand-led story.”

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