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This article examines whether HSBC Holdings shares may still offer value after a strong run, by looking at what the current price may be implying and how that compares with several valuation checks.
At a last close of £14.10, the stock has returns of 1.7% over 7 days, 3.7% over 30 days, 18.3% year to date and 68.7% over 1 year. This naturally raises questions about how much of the story is already priced in.
Recent coverage has highlighted HSBC Holdings as one of the large global banks in focus for investors who are monitoring capital returns, efficiency initiatives and portfolio refocusing. These themes provide useful context when considering whether the current share price fairly reflects the company’s prospects or incorporates additional risk.
Simply Wall St currently assigns HSBC Holdings a value score of 2 out of 6, which reflects how many of its valuation checks identify the stock as undervalued. The sections that follow compare different valuation methods and then conclude with a broader way to think about value beyond the numbers alone.
HSBC Holdings scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
Approach 1: HSBC Holdings Excess Returns Analysis
The Excess Returns model looks at how much value a company may create above the return that shareholders require, based on its equity, earnings power and cost of equity. It is less about short term earnings swings and more about the relationship between profitability and the capital invested in the business.
For HSBC Holdings, the model uses a Book Value of £10.17 per share and a Stable EPS of £1.88 per share, based on weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 16 analysts. Against a Cost of Equity of £1.00 per share, this implies an Excess Return of £0.88 per share. The Average Return on Equity of 15.93% and a Stable Book Value of £11.80 per share, based on estimates from 8 analysts, underpin the view that the bank may earn more on its equity base than investors require.
Putting these inputs together, the Excess Returns valuation points to an intrinsic value of about £21.66 per share. Compared with the recent share price of £14.10, this implies the stock is 34.9% undervalued on this model.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Excess Returns analysis suggests HSBC Holdings is undervalued by 34.9%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 8 more high quality undervalued stocks.
HSBA Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2026
Story Continues
Approach 2: HSBC Holdings Price vs Earnings
For a profitable bank, the P/E ratio is a practical way to think about value because it connects what you pay for each share with the earnings that support that price. A higher P/E usually reflects higher growth expectations or lower perceived risk, while a lower P/E can point to lower expected growth or higher risk.
HSBC Holdings currently trades on a P/E of 15.43x. This sits above the Banks industry average of 11.05x and the peer group average of 10.94x, so the stock is priced at a premium to many listed banks.
Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for HSBC Holdings is 10.82x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be, given factors such as the company’s earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry, market cap and risk characteristics. Because it adjusts for these elements, the Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple comparison with industry or peer averages.
Comparing the Fair Ratio of 10.82x with the actual P/E of 15.43x suggests the stock is trading above this modelled “fair” level, which implies it is overvalued on this metric alone.
Result: OVERVALUED
LSE:HSBA P/E Ratio as at Jun 2026
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your HSBC Holdings Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so this is where Narratives come in as a simple way for you to attach a clear story about HSBC Holdings to the numbers you see on screen, by linking your view of its future revenue, earnings and margins to a forecast and then to a fair value you can compare with the current price.
On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are available as an easy tool used by millions of investors. They allow you to set assumptions, see the implied fair value, and quickly check whether your view suggests the stock is above or below that level. This can help you decide whether HSBC Holdings fits your own portfolio objectives.
Because Narratives update when new information such as news or earnings is added, your fair value view stays aligned with the latest data. You can also see how different investors can reasonably land in very different places. For example, one Narrative may use a fair value around £16.43 and another may use a fair value closer to £7.73 for HSBC Holdings. You can then decide which story feels more consistent with your expectations.
Do you think there’s more to the story for HSBC Holdings? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
LSE:HSBA 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include HSBA.L.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com