Critical minerals have rapidly moved from being viewed as commodity inputs to strategic assets tied to industrial policy, economic resilience and geopolitical security. Yet the mining sector says investment decisions still depend on one core factor: whether long-term demand and pricing visibility are strong enough to justify capital deployment.
“What we need is the demand signal that says that gallium will be in demand,” said Bold Baatar, Rio Tinto’s chief commercial officer. Rio Tinto speaking at Ecosperity 2026, a sustainability focused event run by Singapore’s state investor Temasek
Baatar used gallium, a material increasingly used in semiconductors and advanced electronics as an example of how supply constraints are often less about geology and more about market certainty. While Western producers could technically expand processing capacity, miners remain reluctant to invest aggressively without clearer signals around future demand, pricing stability and commercial scale.
The comments underscore a broader tension emerging across critical mineral markets globally. Governments are pushing for supply chain diversification away from concentrated processing hubs while miners and investors continue to evaluate projects through a commercial lens shaped by long project cycles, volatile prices and uncertain returns.
“Some of these smaller minerals are very important drivers for energy transition to artificial intelligence (AI) to defence sectors,” Baatar noted.
He said many niche minerals remain difficult investment propositions because they face what he described as “capital constraint, price certainty constraint, and volume demand constraint”.
According to the International Energy Agency, demand for critical minerals linked to clean energy technologies could rise several-fold over the next two decades as electrification, battery storage and grid expansion accelerate globally.
Baatar argued that processing infrastructure has become one of the biggest structural bottlenecks. “It’s not about just the greenfield of the critical minerals, it’s about how do you make sure you encourage existing processing industries to continue,” he explained.
He pointed to rising environmental, permitting and operational standards across Western economies as factors making it increasingly difficult to sustain and expand processing capacity outside dominant supply chain hubs.
AI, electrification and the coming copper surge
Beyond niche minerals, Baatar said the next major pressure point for the industry may emerge from copper demand linked to electrification and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
As hyperscale data centers expand globally, mining companies are increasingly recalibrating long-term commodity demand forecasts around AI-driven electricity consumption and grid buildouts.
“When we did the math, that’s another two to four million tons of copper,” Baatar said, referring to projected hyperscale infrastructure growth.
He said the scale of investment required to support future copper demand remains enormous, particularly as new discoveries become harder and more expensive to develop. “We need $60 billion to invest in a copper mine that we haven’t found yet to develop it,” Baatar observed.
Baatar also highlighted how decarbonisation considerations are increasingly becoming embedded directly into mining economics. Rio Tinto has expanded renewable power procurement across its Australian aluminum operations through large-scale agreements spanning solar, battery storage and other low-carbon power solutions.
“It’s actually brought down the total power cost,” Baatar said of the company’s renewable energy transition efforts.
He added that Rio Tinto now incorporates internal carbon pricing assumptions into investment decisions. At the same time, automation is reshaping workforce requirements across mining operations.
“The type of skill we need in Australia – more digital, IT, AI, and less about trucks,” Baatar shared.
Rio Tinto has increasingly deployed autonomous trucks, rail systems and digital mine management technologies across Australian operations as labor shortages and operational costs rise.
Strategic risks
Even as governments focus on securing supply chains for strategic minerals, Baatar said mining projects continue to face another major constraint: maintaining long-term trust with host governments and local communities.
That challenge has become increasingly significant as projects grow larger, more politically sensitive and more exposed to environmental scrutiny.
“Most mining companies’ projects fail, not because of engineering design, but because of the social trust erosion,” Baatar said.
Rio Tinto is currently developing large-scale projects including copper mine Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia and iron ore mine Simandou in Guinea.
Baatar said social licensing processes often take significantly longer than engineering execution itself. “Building the tunnels is a time issue but getting the permits to drill through those mountains – we had to monitor those mountains for three years before we can put a shovel into it,” he explained.
He described mining projects as “massive ecosystems” that increasingly require companies to manage not only extraction, but also employment, local supply chains, water systems, infrastructure and skills development.
“We are guests in the communities of the host countries,” Baatar noted.
The company said it increasingly aligns projects with international frameworks including IFC and United Nations standards, particularly around community consultation and environmental safeguards before projects move forward.
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