Emma Wilks noted that while Q1 2026 saw some economic improvement, this was “deja vu for us economists.”
Speaking at the NACFB Expo today (10th June 2026), Emma Wilks, UK economist at HSBC, predicted that the Bank of England would likely hike the base rate this year, with two rises due before the year is out.
Wilks said that these rises would likely be reversed next year, but that this would depend on how events play out on the international and local stage.
Noting that “the only certainty is uncertainty,” Wilks noted that while Q1 2026 saw some economic improvement, this was “deja vu for us economists,” following a similar trend, which was not then sustained, in early 2025.
Wilks described a “sharp fall back” in business and household confidence, which is likely to continue as “inflationary pressures really start to bite.”
Inflation was predicted to peak at 4.1% in 2026, and Wilks warned that it would not drop below the 2% target by the end of 2027.
On the subject of supply chain disruption due to international conflict, Wilks said that the issues are yet to fully feed through, and that “even if the conflict is resolved today” the damage to supply chains is “already baked in.”
Predict & Win – World Cup 2026
While businesses will be looking to pass on shocks via pricing, income pressures on households will limit how much this is possible.