On Sunday, Royal Marines seized the MV Smyrtos, one of the so-called “shadow fleet” tankers transporting Russian oil around the world. On Tuesday, a Russian frigate in the Channel – although outside British waters – fired warning shots when a yacht got too close to it. The Cold War at sea risks hotting up.
Moscow seems to be reserving judgement on the seizure – assuming it was a performative one-off by a Prime Minister trying to establish a legacy as domestic concerns grow for him. But days later, Sir Keir Starmer announced a fresh round of sanctions against Russia’s shadow fleet vessels, with the stated aim to “choke off” Russian revenue.
In case this is the start of a sustained campaign, Vladimir Putin will now be weighing his options, from bringing shadow fleet oil tankers under the protection of the Russian flag all the way to a campaign of sabotage against the UK and others.
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Caption: A woman walks past campaign posters (R) for the Labour party candidate, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, and an old poster of England football player Bobby Moore (L) hoisting the 1966 World Cup trophy, along a street ahead of the Makerfield by-election on June 18, west of Manchester, north-west England on June 16, 2026. Britain holds a special vote on June 18 that is expected to set in motion an attempt to oust Labour leader Keir Starmer as prime minister. (Photo by Oli SCARFF / AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: OLI SCARFF
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Source: AFP
Copyright: AFP or licensors
POLITICS
All eyes on Makerfield ahead of by-election
The Makerfield by-election on Thursday is arguably the UK’s most consequential in modern memory.
Triggered after Labour MP Josh Simons resigned, the contest is paving the way for Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster – not just as an MP, but potentially as the country’s next prime minister.
Who are the candidates?
Jake Austin, Liberal Democrats
Count Binface, Count Binface Party
Andy Burnham, Labour Party
Dan Clarke, Libertarian Party
John Alfred Dyer, Independent
Ed Gemmell, Climate Party
Paul Richard Gould, Independent
Alan “Howlin” Laud Hope, The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Robert Kenyon, Reform UK
Robert Pownall, Independent
Rebecca Shepherd, Restore Britain
Sarah Wakefield, Green Party
Peter Ward, Rejoin EU
Michael Winstanley, Conservative Party
What could happen next?
Burnham is hoping to win Thursday’s by-election and become an MP once again. If he emerges victorious, he is expected to launch a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer.
Caption: Andy Burnham, Labour’s candidate in the forthcoming Makerfield by-election on June 18, canvasses voters in Hindley, north-west England on June 16, 2026. (Photo by Oli SCARFF / AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: OLI SCARFF
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Caption: LONDON, ENGLAND – JUNE 16: Wes Streeting delivers a speech on the economy at Tower Place East on June 16, 2026 in London, England. The ex-health secretary reveals his “economic blueprint for Britain” and talks about his vision for “progressive capitalism”. Streeting resigned as health minister after Labour’s poor performance in the local elections and has confirmed he will stand against Keir Starmer for leadership of the party if a contest is triggered. (Photo by Alishia Abodunde/Getty Images)
Photographer: Alishia Abodunde
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The Prime Minister is also facing a looming threat from his former health secretary Wes Streeting, who has indicated he is prepared to trigger a Labour leadership contest next week.
Caption: ? Joel Goodman – 07973 332324 – all rights reserved . 09/06/2026. Makerfield, UK. Vote Andy For Us banner on Broxton Avenue in Orrell. The sitting MP in Makerfield, Josh Simmons, has announced he is stepping down, forcing a by-election and clearing a potential path for current Greater Manchester Metro Mayor Andy Burnham to return to Parliament. Photo credit: Joel Goodman
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The one issue uniting divided voters
Andy Burnham coming in for Labour, I’ve found it disrespectful, he’s coming in for one reason and that’s to move on in a few months time.
David, a 66-year-old retired electrician, told The i Paper’s Northern Correspondent, Steve Robson. Click the link below to read the full article and find out what voters think.
NEWS
Don’t delay attending A&E, health chiefs tell football fans
Caption: Soccer Football – Euro 2024 – Fans gather for Netherlands v England – BOXPARK Wembley, London, Britain – July 10, 2024 England fans celebrate after Ollie Watkins scores their second goal REUTERS/David Klein
Photographer: David Klein
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Football fans should not put off getting help for health problems, experts have said, after data revealed a drop in A&E attendances when England are playing.
NHS England said people should come forward for care in their usual way and not wait until after a match. Fans have also been warned to avoid situations that could end with a trip to A&E.
17,000
Analysis of A&E attendance data during Euro 2024 found there were just under 17,000 fewer attendances than expected during England matches.
The biggest drop in attendances was in the hour before the start of the game, when services experienced an 11 per cent dip.
Attendances fell more sharply when England played at weekends compared with midweek games.
Once matches finished, A&E departments experienced a spike in demand, with hundreds more patients needing care in the following eight-hour period.
The types of injuries that drove spike in A&E demand
NHS England said the spike in A&E demand after matches finished was driven in part by around a 10 per cent increase in trauma and musculoskeletal attendances, consistent with falls, assaults and other injuries.
FOOTBALL
3 min read
Analysis
3 min read
NHS appeal to football fans
Even the most die-hard supporter needs to ensure they put their health first and seek emergency treatment when they need it.
Emma Rowland, NHS England’s national clinical lead for urgent and emergency care
Caption: Sign for the accident and emergency or A&E department of the Royal London Hospital in Whitechapel on 12th June 2024 in London, United Kingdom. Britains biggest new hospital The Royal London and Barts state-of-the-art new building which will sit behind the historic front block overlooking the Whitechapel. This blue glass structure is massive in scale and a modern architectural testiment to the NHS. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images)
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news
Jeremy Clarkson reveals ‘aggressive’ cancer diagnosis
Caption: LONDON, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 19: TV presenter Jeremy Clarkson speaks to the crowd during a farmers demonstration on Whitehall on November 19, 2024 in London, England. Thousands of farmers descended on central London to protest against changes to inheritance tax announced in the budget last month. The farmers argue that the changes will destroy family farms and that the nation’s food security is at risk, while the government says that the change will likely affect only around 500 larger estate farms. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
Photographer: Dan Kitwood
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Source: Getty Images Europe
Copyright: 2024 Getty Images
Jeremy Clarkson has revealed he has been diagnosed with an “aggressive” form of cancer.
Clarkson, 66, announced the news in an episode of his show Clarkson’s Farm, which streams on Amazon Prime Video.
What you need to know
In the series, which is understood to have been filmed in 2024 and 2025, Clarkson is shown sharing his diagnosis with co-stars Charlie Ireland and Kaleb Cooper. “I disappeared off the other week and I had a biopsy, and it is cancer, and it’s aggressive, but it’s really early,” he said.
Caption: LONDON, ENGLAND – SEPTEMBER 10: (EXCLUSIVE COVERAGE) Kit Lynch Robinson, Lisa Hogan, Jeremy Clarkson and Harriet Cowan accept the ‘Factual Entertainment’ Award for ‘Clarkson’s Farm’ during the NTA’s 2025 at The O2 Arena on September 10, 2025 in London, England. (Photo by Jeff Spicer/Getty Images for the NTA’s)
Photographer: Jeff Spicer
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Copyright: 2025 Getty Images
Caption: Jeremy Clarkson and Lisa Hogan on day four of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival at Cheltenham Racecourse. Picture date: Friday March 14, 2025. PA Photo. See PA story RACING Cheltenham. Photo credit should read:Andrew Matthews/PA Wire.
RESTRICTIONS: Use subject to restrictions. Editorial use only, no commercial use without prior consent from rights holder.
Photographer: Andrew Matthews
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Source: PA
Copyright: PA
Clarkson has not disclosed what type of cancer he was diagnosed with, but said a portion of his prostate was removed as part of the treatment.
Fans warned latest episodes would be a ‘difficult watch’
Ahead of the release of the final two episodes of the fifth series of Clarkson’s Farm, Clarkson issued a warning to fans.
In a video posted on Instagram on Tuesday evening, he said they would be a “difficult watch”.
Caption: LONDON, ENGLAND – JUNE 09: Lisa Hogan and Jeremy Clarkson during the “Clarkson’s Farm” photocall at St. Pancras Renaissance London Hotel on June 09, 2021 in London, England. (Photo by Jeff Spicer/Getty Images)
Photographer: Jeff Spicer
Provider: Getty Images
Source: Getty Images Europe
OPINION
3 min read
Clarkson’s previous health troubles
The Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? presenter previously revealed he had a coronary stent fitted after it was discovered he was potentially “days away” from death.
“It seems that of the arteries feeding my heart with nourishing blood, one was completely blocked,” he wrote in The Sunday Times in 2024.
OPINION
3 min read
TELEVISION
3 min read
It can be far easier to seek an internal promotion rather than a new job elsewhere
The statistics
A trend of ‘job hugging’
12%
In January, available vacancies were down 12 per cent compared to a year prior.
According to the ONS it marked 39 consecutive quarters of decline.
51%
of UK employees plan to stay in their current roles, as Employment Hero’s first Annual Jobs Report shows. Four in 10 say competition is too high to take the risk.
So how can you improve your current situation without leaving?
Learn to humble brag
Your wins don’t always speak for themselves. Share them. Jump into conversations beyond your usual remit. How people see you today shapes the opportunities that come your way tomorrow. Even small updates can have an outsized impact.
VICTORIA MCLEAN, CEO OF CITY CV AND AN EXPERT IN CV AND PROFILE WRITING
Drive Talent Investments with Strategic Workforce Planning. A female job-seeker answering questions during a job interview with a human resource manager in a business office. – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
Make your case – with data
Caption: Mid adult man with eyeglasses sitting on a comfortable sofa at home, thoughtfully writing notes in a small notebook while natural sunlight illuminates the room
Photographer: Milan Markovic
Provider: Getty Images
Source: E+
Keep a log
The chances of your boss remembering what you achieved in Q1 by December is low so keep a success log.
Treat it as a proposal
Show impact, link it to organisational goals,
and outline future
value, says McLean.
Male candidate handshake with the recruiter at job interview – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
(Photo: Shutterstock).
Don’t be shy
Ask your boss directly what you need to do to be promoted in the next six to 12 months.
Offer solutions to problems
Ask yourself: what keeps your organisation awake
at night?
Solve those problems and you shift from just doing your job to being a strategic asset.
Sharing your ideas and views with the people above you can really prove what you’re capable of.
Proactively initiate new projects
or processes.
It ‘s daunting but getting people to see you in a more elevated position before you get there is really effective.
Caption: Worried businessman biting his nail while waiting for a job interview with other candidates in a hallway of an office building.
Photographer: skynesher
Provider: Getty Images
Source: E+
Ask for training
It’s a fantastic signal to show how serious you are about your development.
As careers are no longer linear, a promotion may not be in your current role, but perhaps in the same company in a broader role.
Do some digging to find out what else might be available in other areas.
NEWS
Bonnie Tyler remains ‘very unwell’ in ICU
Caption: MADRID, SPAIN – JULY 30: Welsh singer Bonnie Tyler performs on stage at Push Play music festival at Hipodromo de Madrid on July 30, 2021 in Madrid, Spain. (Photo by Aldara Zarraoa/Redferns)
Photographer: Aldara Zarraoa
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Copyright: Aldara ZN
Welsh singer Bonnie Tyler is “no longer in a coma” but remains “very unwell” in intensive care, according to a post on her official website.
The 75-year-old was taken to a hospital near to her home in Faro, Portugal for emergency intestinal surgery earlier this month, and had been placed in an induced coma to aid her recovery.
Which shows have been cancelled?
All Tyler’s remaining shows for this summer have been cancelled or postponed.
Caption: (FILES) Britain’s Bonnie Tyler performs during the finals of the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest on May 18, 2013. Husky-voiced Welsh singer Bonnie Tyler will turn 75 on June 8, 2026. (Photo by John MACDOUGALL / AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: JOHN MACDOUGALL
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Source: AFP
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Caption: File photo dated 02/05/13 of Bonnie Tyler during the filming of the Graham Norton Show at The London Studios, south London. The Total Eclipse of the Heart singer said she had visited Russia “many times” before and revealed that Mr Putin was in the front row during one of her performances. The 72-year-old toured the country before the breakup of the Soviet Union as well and said it was “very strange.” Issue date: Wednesday May 1, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story SHOWBIZ Tyler. Photo credit should read: Dominic Lipinski/PA Wire
Photographer: Dominic Lipinski
Provider: Dominic Lipinski/PA Wire
Source: PA
Concerts scheduled for autumn have not been changed yet, and in a statement her representatives said they were still hopeful these could go ahead. She is booked to perform in Cardiff on 17 December.
Doctors confident of ‘good recovery’
Although her condition is improving it is a slow process. Her doctors remain confident that she will make a good recovery but it is going to take time.
A statement from tyler’s family and team
Caption: (FILES) British singer Gaynor Sullivan aka Bonnie Tyler poses with her medal after being appointed a Member of the Order of the British Empire (MBE) during an investiture ceremony at Windsor Castle on February 1, 2023. Husky-voiced Welsh singer Bonnie Tyler was “recuperating” on May 7, 2026 after emergency intestinal surgery in Portugal. (Photo by Andrew Matthews / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: ANDREW MATTHEWS
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Source: AFP
Giant of 1980s pop/rock
Tyler – real name Gaynor Hopkins – from Neath in South Wales, is recognisable for her husky voice and operatic soft-rock sound.
She achieved international fame in the 1980s, with the release of her hit single Total Eclipse Of The Heart, which shot to the top of the charts in the UK and US.
Tyler has released many other hit songs over the years, including Holding Out For A Hero and It’s A Heartache.
She was made an MBE in 2023 for her services to music, featuring in the Queen’s Birthday Honours list.
Prince George to
study at Eton from September
Prince George will attend Eton College from the autumn, following in the footsteps of his father the Prince of Wales, Kensington Palace has said.
Caption: LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM – JUNE 14: (EMBARGOED FOR PUBLICATION IN UK NEWSPAPERS UNTIL 24 HOURS AFTER CREATE DATE AND TIME) Prince William, Prince of Wales (Colonel of the Welsh Guards), Prince Louis of Wales, Prince George of Wales, Catherine, Princess of Wales and Princess Charlotte of Wales watch an RAF flypast from the balcony of Buckingham Palace after attending Trooping The Colour 2025 on June 14, 2025 in London, England. Trooping the Colour, also known as The King’s Birthday Parade, is a military ceremony to mark the official birthday of the British Sovereign. The ceremony, which takes place at Horse Guards Parade followed by a flypast over Buckingham Palace, was first performed in the mid-17th century during the reign of King Charles II. The parade features all seven regiments of the Household Division with Number 7 Company Coldstream Guards being the regiment this year having their Colour Trooped. (Photo by Max Mumby/Indigo/Getty Images)
Photographer: Max Mumby/Indigo
Provider: Getty Images
Source: Getty Images Europe
What you need to know
George, 12, who made an appearance with his family at the Trooping the Colour ceremony at the weekend, will be a pupil at the school which educated William and his brother, the Duke of Sussex.
OPINION
3 min read
Explained
4 min read
Where has George been educated so far?
The young prince is currently studying at Lambrook School, the private prep school in Berkshire where he boards. It is also attended by his siblings, Princess Charlotte, 11, and eight-year-old Prince Louis.
Caption: Prince George, Princess Charlotte and Prince Louis have posted a Father’s Day tribute to their father, Prince William, in their first social media post.
The post, external reads: “We love you, Papa. Happy Father’s Day”, followed by two red hearts.
In the picture, taken by Catherine, the Princess of Wales, William can be seen standing on a beach with his arms round his children, looking out to sea.
Kensington Palace said it was taken on a trip to the Norfolk coast last month.
https://www.instagram.com/p/C8Rb1TRtNnh
https://www.instagram.com/princeandprincessofwales
princeandprincessofwales
We love you, Papa. Happy Father?s Day G, C & L
The Princess of Wales, 2024
Caption: Britain’s Prince George of Wales (C) walks behind Britain’s Camilla, Queen Consort (L) and Britain’s King Charles III as they arrive for the Royal Family’s traditional Christmas Day service at St Mary Magdalene Church in Sandringham, Norfolk, eastern England, on December 25, 2022. (Photo by Daniel LEAL / AFP) (Photo by DANIEL LEAL/AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: DANIEL LEAL
Provider: AFP via Getty Images
Source: AFP
William and the Princess of Wales were reportedly spotted touring Eton with their eldest son in 2023, fuelling speculation the school was high on their list of places to send George.
A closer look at the detail
Caption: Britain’s Prince William, Prince of Wales, and Prince George attend the “Together At Christmas” carol service at Westminster Abbey, in London, Britain, December 5, 2025. Aaron Chown/Pool via REUTERS
Photographer: Aaron Chown
Provider: via REUTERS
Source: Pool
It is not known if George will board at Eton, but the college is only a few miles from the Waleses’ Forest Lodge home at Windsor.
The press were allowed to record William’s first day at Eton with his parents Charles and Diana, as the new pupil signed in on 6 September, 1995.
NEWS
4 min read
WORLD ANALYSIS
Trump is scoring World Cup own goals while his rival plays blinder
Caption: President Donald Trump looks on during a bilateral meeting with France’s President on the sidelines of the G7 summit, in Evian, central-eastern France, Monday. June 15, 2026. (Ludovic Marin/Pool Photo via AP)
Photographer: Ludovic Marin
Provider: Ludovic Marin/Pool AFP via AP
Source: Pool AFP
It’s not always clear where Donald Trump’s allegiances lie in sport. He flits between individuals and teams, but is consistent in attaching himself to a winner.
It’s why he suddenly showed up at the New York Knicks last week as they were riding high in the NBA basketball finals; praised Serena Williams when she was at the peak of her powers; and courted Mike Tyson when he was heavyweight champion.
Trump may have misread the game
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani at the Fifa Arena inauguration at Central Park. The Mayor has been able to unite the city during the World Cup (Photo: Ira L Black/FIFA via Getty)
But when it comes to hosting the World Cup, he may have misread the game.
Trump has been in the public eye for decades, but so far this tournament, he’s been schooled by New York’s Mayor, Zohran Mamdani.
How Mamdani is schooling Trump
Mamdani has done prominent interviews, rolled out $26 meal deals at hundreds of New York restaurants, and announced a thousand $50 tickets for New Yorkers, including round-trip bus journeys to the stadium.
Caption: New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani arrives to take part in the National Puerto Rican Day Parade, Sunday, June 14, 2026 in New York. (AP Photo/Adam Gray)
Photographer: Adam Gray
Provider: AP Photo/Adam Gray
Source: FR172090 AP
Copyright: ADAM GRAY
Caption: FILE PHOTO: New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and New York Governor Kathy Hochul attend a press conference announcing an official fan zone for the FIFA World Cup 2026 in New York City, U.S., April 27, 2026. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo
Photographer: Shannon Stapleton
Provider: REUTERS
Source: REUTERS
He’s also actually attended a game – Brazil’s 1-1 draw with Morocco – while Trump has been notably absent. And he’s hosting a weather and traffic TV update on World Cup matchdays.
Trump’s World Cup own goals
Caption: SEATTLE, UNITED STATES – JUNE 15: Empty seats are seen due to high ticket prices prior to 2026 FIFA World Cup First Stage Group G match between Belgium and Egypt at Lumen Field (Seattle Stadium) in Seattle, Washington, United States on June 15, 2026. (Photo by Er????in Ert????rk/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Photographer: Anadolu
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Source: Anadolu
No real buzz
Stadiums aren’t full, neither are hotels, and in swathes of the US the World Cup buzz is more of a distant hum.
Access challenges
Fans, journalists and officials are among those who have been turned away at the door.
Caption: Somali international referee Omar Abdulkadir Artan waves to supporters while draped in the Somali flag as he is welcomed ahead of a solidarity football match after returning to Somalia in Mogadishu on June 10, 2026. Somali referee Omar Artan, who was denied entry to the United States for the World Cup, returned to a hero’s welcome in Mogadishu and vowed to take part in the next tournament in 2030. Artan’s rejection has sparked outrage at home.Artan, who in 2025 was named men’s referee of the year by the Confederation of African Football (CAF), was barred from entering the US on Saturday after arriving at Miami International Airport. (Photo by Hassan Ali Elmi / AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: HASSAN ALI ELMI
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Source: AFP
Copyright: AFP or licensors
Caption: LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JUNE 15: IR Iran players huddle before the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group G match between IR Iran and New Zealand at Los Angeles Stadium on June 15, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Liza Rosales/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images)
Photographer: Liza Rosales/ISI Photos
Provider: ISI Photos via Getty Images
Source: ISI Photos
Immigration control
Iran has been banished to train in Tijuana in Mexico after members of their support team were denied visas.
Watch more from The i Paper
Donald Trump may release a deal to end the US war with Iran sooner than Friday, the US Vice-President JD Vance stated in a Fox News interview. The President has said the agreement is already signed, and includes re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. JD Vance described the memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the US and Iran as a “very general” document of “about a page and a half”. #jdvance #iranwar #trump
♬ original sound – The i Paper – The i Paper
How to resolve the biggest rows that can end marriages
Private school, sex and housework can be some of the biggest causes of tension between warring couples.
Mike Talbot, a psychologist, and chief executive of UK Mediation [below], reveals how to fix them.
What couples row over
Parenting and schooling
Young couple having an argument. Woman is angry with man. – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
Psychologist Mike Talbot says parenting can expose ideological differences in a couple. He encourages people to listen to each other, and find a “third way”, something that they come up with between themselves, rather than sticking to one person’s opinion.
OPINION
3 min read
Money (or a lifestyle)
Caption: A mature couple sitting in bed and looking at each other angrily after a disagreement
Photographer: kupicoo
Provider: Getty Images
Source: iStockphoto
It’s common for couples to disagree on their property or finances.
Couples might have different ideas about what the best plan of action is for the future.
Dr Talbot says its important to find “common ground” on what both parties wish for, or worry about.
Agony Uncle
5 min read
Incompatibilities around sex
Dr Talbot has seen this when one person loses their sex drive. “It can happen when the couples get older, and she loses her sex drive during menopause, whereas the guy’s still as randy as he was when he was 20.”
Caption: Young couple having relationship difficulties at home. Both about 25 years old, Caucasian people.
Photographer: GoodLifeStudio
Provider: Getty Images
Source: E+
Copyright: DAMIR MIHAJLOVIC
Caption: Millennial black lady vacuuming floor while her husband watching TV, not helping her with household duties, cropped view. Unrecognizable young couple having problem with domestic chores
Photographer: Prostock-Studio
Provider: Getty Images/iStockphoto
Source: iStockphoto
Domestic workload
We get people disagreeing about how tidy the house should be, how neatly dressed the kids should be…
This goes back to the gender stereotypes.
The solution is to focus on value and to get the couple to think about the conflict in a different way.
The first to respond to the tanker seizure in Russia were, predictably, the ultra-nationalists. Senator Dmitry Rogozin drew parallels with England’s use of pirates as privateers in the 16th to 18th centuries and advocated placing explosives on tankers to blow them up in the case of seizure.
“A couple of explosions under their noses with an oil spill and the corresponding environmental consequences will immediately make them come to their senses,” he said.
A prominent milblogger channel, Starshe Eddy, said that “without a response, this will continue to happen more frequently, more harshly, and more shamefully for us”. It called for some kind of retaliation, whether “under our own flag, or made to look like an accident. It could look like an environmental disaster”.
However, voices like these were relatively marginal, and the mainstream press in Russia scarcely reported it, with the Government’s RIA Novosti news agency confining itself to quoting the Russian embassy in London saying that “there were no Russian citizens among the crew members of the detained tanker”.
The Smyrtos left the Russian post of Ust-Luga, near St Petersburg, on 7 June 2026. It wound its way through the Baltic Sea, passing Denmark, before making a direct shot for the English Channel (Photo: MarineTraffic)
Still, this doesn’t mean that the Kremlin doesn’t care, but rather that it is weighing its options. Russia may strike back in unexpected ways, or choose to wait to see what happens next, especially as Donald Trump’s deal with Iran could return the focus to the war in Ukraine.
For Putin, the calculations are simple. Oil and gas only amount to about a fifth of Russian state revenues, and the state taxes hydrocarbons when they come out of the ground, not when they are sold. If export profits fall, it doesn’t have an immediate and direct effect on his war chest and the continuing conflict in Ukraine.
The shadow fleet is also made up of mostly non-Russian ships, and the oil that was seized by the UK had already been sold. As long as there is a market for cheap Russian oil, someone, somewhere, will try to supply it.
Putin will also take solace in the fact that the ships seized so far by France and Belgium were eventually allowed to go on their way, after paying fines worth a fraction of the value of the oil on board.
But that doesn’t mean that the seizures don’t matter. If they force shadow fleet tankers to take more roundabout routes – avoiding the English Channel can add four days to the overall journey – and deter shipowners, it increases costs. That makes Russian oil a little less competitive on international markets at a time when Putin needs all the money he can get.
British forces intercepted a sanctioned oil tanker belonging to Russia’s shadow fleet in the English Channel on 14 June (Photo: Ministry of Defence/AFP)
Still, that is not going to bring Putin to his knees, but with Ukrainian drones hitting refineries across the country and the battlefield casualty rate now exceeding recruitment, there is increasing discomfort about his war.
Putin is finding himself trapped between nationalists who complain that he is not being aggressive enough and pragmatists who think it is time to settle for what Russia has already been able to conquer. In these circumstances, the seizure of the Smyrtos could be seen as an isolated act of geopolitical machismo. However, if Britain and the rest of Europe step up the campaign – something Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is urging at the G7 summit – Putin will have to respond.
When it comes to a response, setting aside the more fanciful suggestions like Rogozin’s, Putin’s main options range from the defensive to the aggressive. Ships have the right of innocent passage, even through territorial waters. What allowed the Cameroonian-flagged Smyrtos to be seized was that, while it was at sea, Cameroon deregistered it, leaving it fair game.
Looking ahead, Russia could offer its flag to other shadow fleet tankers, place armed security officers on board or send them in convoys escorted by warships. This would likely make future seizures much less palatable for the West.
Of course, still smarting at the humiliating Ukrainian drone attack on his hometown of St Petersburg during a recent business forum, Putin may feel that is not enough.
The conviction on Monday of two men for arson attacks on properties owned by Starmer shows that Russia continues to wage a covert war across Europe, one intended to distract, divide and demoralise its enemies. It hopes this will undermine our will and capacity to support Ukraine.
Stepping up this campaign – perhaps even by targeting ships, ports and other export routes as a symbolic rebuke – could be a more serious response. The UK will have to wait to see what Putin chooses to do next – and even he might not know what he plans.
Tuesday’s incident in the Channel is a reminder that in the current time of heightened tensions, bad luck or bad judgement can easily raise the risk of dangerous escalation.