A Labour Party led by Andy Burnham would leapfrog Reform UK in the polls if a general election were held now, according to exclusive polling for The i Paper.
The polling, carried out after Sir Keir Starmer announced his resignation on Monday, shows a clear Burnham “bounce,” with the former Greater Manchester mayor also coming out on top in a host of head-to-heads on personal values with Reform leader Nigel Farage.
But pollsters warn the “bounce” is “wafer thin”, with both parties likely to fall more than 100 seats short of a majority if the numbers were replicated in a general election.
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NEWS
Why Andrew Tate’s legal action against CPS was thrown out
Caption: Andrew Tate, right, and his brother Tristan arrive before President Donald Trump to attend UFC 327 at Kaseya Center, Saturday, April 11, 2026, in Miami. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, Pool)
Photographer: Julia Demaree Nikhinson
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Copyright: Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
Andrew Tate, along with his brother Tristan, have just had a legal challenge against the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) thrown out by a High Court judge.
Here is everything you need to know of why the Tate brothers are taking legal action against the CPS.
Human trafficking charges
The pair are facing legal proceedings in Romania, where they currently live. However, they will soon be extradited to the UK to face a combined 21 charges, including rape, actual bodily harm and human trafficking.
Andrew, 39, and Tristan, 37, have long denied wrongdoing.
Caption: Andrew Tate, right, and his brother Tristan laugh as they leave the Bucharest Tribunal in Bucharest, Romania, Wednesday, May 8, 2024. A court in Romania’s capital ruled on April 26, that a trial could start but did not set a date for the trial to begin in the case of influencer Andrew Tate, who is charged with human trafficking, rape and forming a criminal gang to sexually exploit women. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda)
Photographer: Vadim Ghirda
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NEWS
2 min read
A ‘time limited’ decision
On Tuesday, lawyers for the pair told the High Court that the CPS had acted unlawfully by refusing to tell them the names of their alleged victims until they returned to the UK.
Caption: Police officers escort Andrew Tate, center, handcuffed to his brother Tristan Tate, to the Court of Appeal in Bucharest, Romania, Monday, Feb. 27, 2023. Andrew Tate, the divisive influencer and former professional kickboxer who is detained in Romania on suspicion of organized crime and human trafficking appeared at the court in Bucharest on Wednesday to appeal against a second 30-day extension of his detention. His brother Tristan is held in the same case. (AP Photo/Andreea Alexandru)
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Andrew Tate arrives at the Court of Appeal in Bucharest in handcuffs (Photo: Daniel Mihailescu/AFP via Getty)
The pair claimed that withholding the names prior to their extradition breached their right to a fair trial. But barristers for the CPS told a hearing in London that the “time-limited” decision to withhold the names was made due to fears that the Tates could identify the alleged victims online.
Tate’s challenge deemed not ‘arguable’
The decision taken in this case was coherent and rational.
Mr Justice Chamberlain dismissed the challenge, finding it was not “arguable”. The judge said: “The decision taken in this case was coherent and rational.”
Those struggling to get on the housing ladder could consider buying a home through an auction (Photo: Ulrich Baumgarten/Getty Images)
Andrew Tate has described him and his brother as “very innocent men”.
Tate lawyer calls decision ‘wholly perverse’
At the hearing, Sallie Bennett-Jenkins KC, who will represent the brothers, said the CPS’s “wholly perverse” decision was wrongly based “on the alleged vulnerability of the complainants” and predicated on the “notoriety of the claimants and the size of their social media following”.
She added that the CPS unreasonably refused to provide the names despite an assurance from both brothers, backed by £20,000 each, that they would not publicly identify the alleged victims.
Analysis
5 min read
OPINION
5 min read
NEWS
Climate deniers say the heatwave is ‘just summer’. This is why they are wrong
Heatwave conditions come to an end this weekend but there are signs they will be back next month (Photo: Rasid Necati Aslim/Anadolu/ Getty)
If you’re finding the heatwave intolerable, spare a thought for meteorologists who are currently in the trenches of social media arguing with climate change denialists.
Sorry, sceptics – but the current furnace conditions really are an unusually fierce heatwave.
What you need to know
The average global temperature has risen by about 1.4°C since the Industrial Revolution, and has coincided with more extreme weather events – like the current heatwave.
Parts of Europe face temperatures 10C higher than typical (Photo: fcafotodigital/Getty Images/E+/Carlos Gawronski)
Caption: People make an early morning journey across the centre of Bristol where temperatures are already in the mid 20???s and extremely humid after overnight thunderstorms. A rare red warning for extreme heat has been issued by the Met Office as the UK has sweltered in exceptionally hot and humid conditions. The heatwave, driven by a “heat-dome” settling over western Europe that has brought extreme conditions across the continent, has led to health warnings, school closures and transport disruption. Picture date: Friday June 26, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Ben Birchall/PA Wire
Photographer: Ben Birchall
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The Met Office says “extreme heat events do occur within natural climate variation; however, the increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of these events over recent decades is clearly linked to the observed warming of the planet.”
The airport myth
In the much-vaunted summer of 1976, which broke records, the top temperature measured was 35.9°C. The UK has long since surpassed this, reaching 40.3°C for the first time in July 2022.
One claim by climate change deniers is that the temperature records are inaccurate because they are measured at airports. It is true that airports usually do record slightly higher temperatures because they have large areas of tarmac, which absorb heat.
But the buildings and roads of towns and cities have a similar effect. Records are currently being smashed at observatories all over Europe, the vast majority of which are not at airports.
POLITICS
3 min read
Anger over instructions
One thing angry people on social media might have a point about is that everyone from health agencies to schools have become keen to issue instructions about how to cope with hot weather.
For those who like to make their own decisions, these nudges might be annoying – but they’re not worth getting hot and bothered about.
FOOD & DRINK
7 min read
WELLBEING
3 min read
Caption: common swift (Apus apus) in flight
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NEWS
Why swifts would rather keep their nest than their partner
While swifts have always shown great loyalty to both their nests and their partners – there is one they return to more than the other, research has found.
Swifts show greater loyalty to their nest site than their previous partners when they return to the UK each spring to breed, according to a 15-year study led by conservation charity RSPB.
Loyal to the nest
Of the 190 swifts examined across 243 nests, scientists found that 94 per cent reused the same nesting site as the previous year when they arrived in Britain for summer.
However, only 59 per cent of their nesting attempts were with the same partner, the experts observed.
LIFESTYLE
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ENVIRONMENT
4 min read
Documented for first time
We’ve anecdotally thought for a long time that swifts are loyal, returning to the same nesting sites and partners each spring…But for the first time, we’ve documented just how strongly faithful they are to their nest sites.
Malcolm Burgess, RSPB principal conservation scientist
Caption: TX DATE:05-04-2026,TX WEEK:14,EMBARGOED UNTIL:31-03-2026 00:00:00,PEOPLE:,DESCRIPTION:Eurasian otter emerging from a tree hollow,COPYRIGHT:Plimsoll Productions,CREDIT LINE:BBC / Plimsoll Productions
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Disappearing nest sites
The researchers collected data on nesting swifts in Dartmoor, using markers on their legs to track which birds bred together and which nest box they settled in each year. For pairs that stayed together for two or more years, 89 per cent reused the same nest site, the team found.
![A Swift [Apus apus] flying across a clear blue sky. Picture taken on the 29th of May 2016. Swindon, Wiltshire, England](https://www.europesays.com/britain/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/1782493823_989_SEI_302969151.jpg)
Caption: A Swift [Apus apus] flying across a clear blue sky. Picture taken on the 29th of May 2016. Swindon, Wiltshire, England
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Caption: (FILES) In this file photo taken on November 20, 2022 A flock of pigeons flies as the sun sets behind the Great Pyramid of Khufu and a cellular broadcast antenna tower in Giza, the twin city of Egypt’s capital Cairo, on November 20, 2022. – Microsoft announced plans on December 14, 2022, to bring internet access via satellite to 10 million people, half of them in Africa, as part of efforts to bridge a digital divide with the developing world. At a summit with African leaders in Washington, DC, the technology leader said it would start the satellite project immediately with a priority on bringing internet for the first time to parts of Egypt, Senegal and Angola. (Photo by Amir MAKAR / AFP) (Photo by AMIR MAKAR/AFP via Getty Images)
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After wintering in Africa, swifts are increasingly arriving back in the UK after the 3,400-mile journey to find their traditional nest site blocked or gone entirely, forcing them to expend extra energy and time searching for an alternative.
‘Sound of summer’ under threat
Often heralded as the “sound of the summer” with their high-pitched song, the swift is unfortunately one of Britain’s most threatened species.
Their numbers have declined by 70 per cent over the last 30 years, partly due to a severe reduction in insect populations, climate change and losing their nesting sites.
Grants and loans for solar panels and other home improvements to cut bills, are on the way (Photo: Getty)
Investigation
4 min read
world news
Venezuela earthquakes death toll rises – everything we know
Caption: Residents and rescue workers search through the rubble of a building that collapsed in an earthquake in Caracas, Venezuela, Thursday, June 25, 2026. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos)
Photographer: Ariana Cubillos
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Copyright: Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved
At least 589 people are dead and around 50,000 people have been reported missing after two strong earthquakes hit Venezuela.
Experts have warned the death toll is likely to rise after two 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude quakes struck just seconds apart.
How the quakes unfolded
Wednesday, 6.04pm local time: An earthquake of 7.2 magnitude strikes in the north of Venezuela.
About 39 seconds later: A second earthquake with a 7.5-magnitude strikes, 28km south-east of Yumare.
This was the strongest to hit the country since 1900.
WORLD
6 min read
Death toll expected to rise
Caption: A view shows a heavily damaged apartment building following an earthquake in Catia La Mar, La Guaira state, about 30 km northwest of Caracas, on June 25, 2026. A twin earthquake that was Venezuela’s largest in over a century has killed at least 164 people and destroyed multiple buildings near the capital, where residents searched on June 25 for missing relatives. (Photo by Federico PARRA / AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: FEDERICO PARRA
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Close to the surface
The first quake was 20.3km below the surface and the second at a depth of just 10km.
Increased damage
These are shallow earthquakes, meaning they have increased likelihood of causing surface damage.
Caption: Soccer Football – FIFA World Cup 2026 – Group F – Japan v Sweden – Dallas Stadium, Arlington, Texas, U.S. – June 25, 2026 A fan displays a Venezuela flag inside the stadium before the match in tribute to the victims of the earthquake IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters/Jerome Miron
Photographer: JEROME MIRON
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Caption: A woman walks past a building damaged during an earthquake in La Guaira, Venezuela, Thursday, June 25, 2026. (AP Photo/Pedro Mattey)
Photographer: Pedro Mattey
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Thousands more
The US Geological Survey has estimated that there is a 44 per cent chance of more than 10,000 deaths.
Rescuers race to Venezuala
Rescuers from more than a dozen countries are racing to Venezuela to help with aid and recovery efforts. The US has pledged a “whole-of-government” response, while Latin American countries dispatch rescue teams and humanitarian provisions.
Caption: TOPSHOT – A woman comforts a child in the street following an earthquake in Caracas on June 24, 2026. Two earthquakes of magnitude 7.2 and 7.5 struck the same area of Venezuela on the evening of June 24, causing buildings to collapse, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and AFP journalists. The quakes drove residents of the capital, Caracas, into the streets. (Photo by Federico PARRA / AFP via Getty Images)
Photographer: FEDERICO PARRA
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Caption: Salvadorean military members board a plane heading to Venezuela, at Comalapa Air Base in San Luis Talpa, El Salvador, on June 25, 2026. A first plane carrying a 300-member team of rescuers and experts, as well as food supplies, was sent to Venezuela to assist after the devastating June 24 twin earthquakes. (Photo by Rudy QUIROZ / AFP via Getty Images)
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Spain has deployed over 50 military personnel, alongside France sending 85 rescue specialists and the Swiss Rescue Chain being deployed with another 80 specialists, eight search dogs and 18 tonnes of rescue equipment.
UN warns of ‘massive collective effort’
Senior UN official Tom Fletcher has said that “the coming days will require a massive collective effort” to help those hit by the quakes.
He also warned that roughly eight million people in Venezuela were in need of humanitarian support even before the disaster.
First responders evacuate a person by ambulance at a damaged building site after an earthquake in Venezuela. (Picture: Edilzon Gamez/Getty Images)
Caption: Rescue workers search through the rubble of a collapsed building after an earthquake in Caracas, Venezuela, Thursday, June 25, 2026. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos)
Photographer: Ariana Cubillos
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High temperatures are forecast for large parts of England this bank holiday weekend (Photo: Ben Montgomery/Getty)
NEWS
June record broken again – how long will heatwave last?
The hottest June day record has been broken for a second day in a row, the Met Office has announced.
A provisional temperature of 36.4°C was recorded in Yeovilton, Somerset, surpassing the high of 36.1°C set in Gosport, Hampshire, on Wednesday.
The question on everybody’s mind is – how long will this heatwave last?
Temperatures continue to climb
Forecasters have warned that temperatures could rise even higher as the UK continues to experience hot and humid conditions.
The Met Office said it could hit 37°C in the coming days, as it extended its red warning for extreme heat until 9pm tomorrow for London and parts of south-east England.
Caption: LONDON, ENGLAND – JUNE 24: A woman cools her head with an iced drink as she walks through central London on June 24, 2026 in London, England. The Met Office has upgraded an extreme heat warning to red for six regions of England and Wales on Wednesday and Thursday this week, with amber warnings in effect from Monday. Temperatures are forecast to rise above 30C for several consecutive days, posing intense heat risks that could impact vulnerable people and infrastructure. (Photo by Carl Court/Getty Images)
Photographer: Carl Court
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Analysis
3 min read
Top five hottest days ever
The June temperature record could be broken again as the Met Office forecasts parts of England to reach 38°C on Friday.
If 38°C is recorded, it will become one of the top five hottest days ever recorded. Currently, the UK’s highest temperature is 40.3°C, recorded in Coningsby, Lincolnshire, in July 2022.
Explained
4 min read
Explained
4 min read
Red heat health alerts
The upcoming El Niño is expected to bring a warmer and drier summer (Photo: John Keeble/Getty)
The UK Health Security Agency has issued red heat health alerts for large swathes of the country.
The alerts, which are in place until 11pm on Friday, warn of an “increased risk to life across the whole population, with significant impacts on older people”.
Analysis
3 min read
What the Met Office has said
Next week is likely to see a change to more of a westerly influence on the UK’s weather, with a return to more average temperatures for the time of year and a mixture of winds and rain, particularly for those in the north-west.
royal family
The real reason Charles is being transparent about his money now
King Charles has become the first monarch to publicly share his tax bill, revealing that he has paid more than £30m in tax since coming to the throne.
But the move has been labelled by critics a “deliberate distraction” from the terrible PR damage done to the Royal Family by his brother, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor.
What about the Palace?
The King and Queen Camilla will no longer use Buckingham Palace as their “personal residence” and will live permanently at Clarence House, the Royal Household’s latest annual report also revealed.
It brings 189 years of history to an end, with the monarch living at the Palace ever since Queen Victoria in 1837.
Caption: King Charles III, delivers the King’s Speech, wearing the Imperial State Crown and the Robe of State, alongside Queen Camilla, wearing the George IV State Diadem and an embroidered gown by Fiona Clare, in the Chamber of the House of Lords during the State Opening of Parliament at the Palace of Westminster in London. Picture date: Wednesday May 13, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Kirsty Wigglesworth/PA Wire
Photographer: Kirsty Wigglesworth
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A Royal Standard flag flies from a flagpole atop Clarence House in London (Photo: HENRY NICHOLLS / AFP)
The King’s income
The King’s annual income from his Duchy of Lancaster property empire was £25.2m in 2025-26, the latest accounts show – up slightly from £24.4m the previous year.
Charles paid £11.7m in tax in 2023-24 and £12.9m in 2024-25 – his first two full years on the throne, according to the Palace.
The rest of his £30m bill relates to the early months of his reign following his accession to the throne in September 2022 after Queen Elizabeth II’s death.
OPINION
3 min read
What about William?
Caption: ALULA, SAUDI ARABIA – FEBRUARY 11: Prince William, Prince of Wales during a visit to Wildlife Conservation and Biodiversity Protection at Sharaan Nature Reserve in AlUla on the third day of his first official visit to Saudi Arabia on February 11, 2026 in AlUla, Saudi Arabia. (Photo by Isabel Infantes – Pool/Getty Images)
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Prince William has also shared his tax bill for the first time, revealing £8.34m paid in tax for 2023-24 and £7.76m during 2024-25.
The Prince of Wales has paid over £20m in tax since Charles’s reign began, bringing the combined tax bill of father and son to more than £50m.
NEWS
6 min read
Andrew sparks outrage – again
However, critics claim the Royal Family is only “pretending” to be transparent in a bid to smooth over a series of controversies sparked by former prince Andrew.
There has been widespread outrage over Andrew’s rental income from sublet cottages at the Royal Lodge while paying only a peppercorn rent himself. Questions were also raised after it emerged that the King pays the rent for his daughters, princesses Eugenie and Beatrice.
Caption: LONDON, ENGLAND – SEPTEMBER 16: Prince Andrew, The Duke of York arrives for the Requiem Mass service for the Duchess of Kent, at Westminster Cathedral on September 16, 2025 in London, England. Katharine, Duchess of Kent was married to Prince Edward, Duke of Kent, the first cousin of Queen Elizabeth II. She died on September 4 at the age of 92 at Kensington Palace surrounded by her family. Having converted to Catholicism in 1994, her funeral takes place at Westminster Cathedral and is the first Catholic funeral to be held for a member of the royal family in modern British history. Her Royal Highness will be laid to rest at the Royal Burial Ground at Frogmore, Windsor. (Photo Aaron Chown – Pool/Getty Images)
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OPINION
5 min read
Shrouded monarchy finances
The monarchy’s finances remain shrouded in fog, argue critics who want more transparency.
It is time for the taxpayer-funded Sovereign Grant to be radically cut and the “bloated” Royal Family to be slimmed down in line with other European monarchies, politicians and commentators told The i Paper.
However, sympathetic royal observers argue the monarchy still provides excellent value for money – pointing to the “soft power” influence the King exerts around the world.
OPINION
3 min read
NEWS
4 min read
health
What sleeping in intense heat does to your body
You don’t necessarily need to go this far to get some shuteye (Photo: Diego Cervo/Getty)
For many, sleeping during the heatwave has been very difficult due to the overnight temperatures.
So, I’ve been speaking to some experts about exactly how higher temperatures affect sleep, and how the body responds to a longer period of going without enough shuteye.
Nowhere to cool down
Higher temperatures directly interfere with sleep. That’s because core body temperature – in the day, usually tightly held between 36.5°C and 37.5°C regardless of weather – falls by as much as 1.5°C when we sleep.
We don’t know exactly why that happens, but it’s “probably a sort of power down”, says Dr Alanna Hare, a sleep specialist at the Royal Brompton Hospital in London.
Suffering from summer heat at home, exhausted young woman sitting near electric fan enjoying fresh air, cooling down during heatwave – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
NEWS
2 min read
‘Easier to wake up at night’
Before we fall asleep, blood flow increases to our hands and feet to help us lose heat. If the bedroom remains too warm, then the body really struggles to cool itself.
That makes it harder to fall asleep and makes it easier to wake up during the night.
Dr Arash Beizaee, building energy scientist at Loughborough University
Woman Lying Awake in Bed with Dramatic Lighting – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
After the first night
Woman lying awake in bed, struggling with insomnia and restlessness. – stock photo. (Photo: Getty)
Interrupted sleep
One night of interrupted sleep stops the brain from going through its usual cycles.
Sleep cycles
These sleep cycles of REM, light sleep and deep sleep are how the brain consolidates memories and strengthens the ones that are most important.
The shift to internet-only TV is accelerating in the UK as broadband take-up increases (image -Getty/John Keeble)
Puzzles like sudoku have now been widely shown not to protect against cognitive decline (Photo: Getty Images)
Brain fog
But when sleep is interrupted, our memory and clarity of thinking may be affected.
After several nights
In a heatwave that lasts for several days, the effects of these bad nights add up to create a “sleep debt”.
Opinions are divided on taking daytime naps. For those trying to beat insomnia, it is generally recommended to avoid daytime napping.
Naps before 1pm can lead to better cognitive performance in the following hours (Photo: Lord Henri Voton/Getty Images)
A man cools down with a bottle of water at Westminster Bridge, central London, as the UK recorded its all-time hottest May temperature (Photo:
James Manning/PA)
But 20-30 minute naps can be helpful for staying sharp in the daytime when sleep has been disturbed by the heat, says Dr Victoria Garfield, a researcher on ageing based at University College London.
After a week
We should not worry too much about the longer-term effects of the heatwave. That’s because, when we build up too much sleep debt over several days, the brain changes its progression through the stages of sleep to ensure it gets proportionally more REM.
“Your brain will catch up preferentially on the type of sleep it needs first for its function, and then it will catch up on the others,” says Dr Hare.
FOOD & DRINK
7 min read
LIFESTYLE
5 min read
The UK has one of the most stable electricity grids in the world.
But no country’s energy system is 100 per cent secure and large-scale blackouts, although rare, are possible.
Here’s how to prepare, and what could happen, if we do have a blackout.
The immediate effects
If the UK’s power went down tomorrow, these are the ways it is likely to impact you first.
You’d get stuck in lifts, wherever you are in the lift shaft.
Trains would be stopped as the signals depend on electricity.
Traffic lights would stop working on the roads – leading to congestion or crashes.
Contactless payments are likely to fail.
Your Wi-Fi at home would stop working and communication becomes difficult.
Fridges and freezers will turn off – unless you have a standalone generator – and food will spoil over time.
Hospitals and water treatment works have their own backup generators so will keep going until their supply runs out.
How transport would be affected
Caption: This photograph taken on April 29, 2026 shows people charging their electric vehicles at a charging station in Kathmandu. As global fuel markets reel from the Middle East war, motorists in Nepal are increasingly turning to electric vehicles, with high demand putting a strain on dealerships. (Photo by Prakash MATHEMA / AFP via Getty Images) / TO GO WITH ‘Nepal-Transport-Automobile-Energy’ FOCUS
Photographer: PRAKASH MATHEMA
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For EV owners that are already on the road, Professor Keith Bell, who works in electricity planning, recommends that those with an EV with reasonable charge use it as a generator, like your own store of electricity.
In the case of the power system going down, petrol isn’t a totally safe option as queues at petrol stations could be huge and places are likely to run out of fuel.
The longer term effects
The longer the power takes to return the worse things are likely to get. In 2021 Storm Arwen physically damaged power lines across the UK.
Without nuclear to take the strain, that exposure to gas is costing us dear (Photo: Catherine Falls Commercial/Getty)
Caption: FILE PHOTO: A row of electricity pylons is seen near the Frodsham on shore wind farm in Frodsham, Britain, September 5, 2023. REUTERS/Phil Noble/File Photo
Photographer: Phil Noble
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During the 1977 New York blackout, which lasted 25 hours, there was civil unrest, resulting in widespread looting and arson, although intense heatwaves are thought to have exacerbated the situation.
Things to buy now to prepare
The Russian state-owned Sputnik news agency took over the BBC’s radio frequency in Lebanon (Photo: Getty)
Battery radio
To get updates during a power cut – a car radio can be used, but in severe weather it might be safer to stay inside.
Bottled water
A minimum of 2.5-3 litres of drinking water per person per day is recommended.
Caption: Plastic bottle with clean water on a blue background.
Photographer: SimpleImages
Provider: Getty Images
Source: Moment RF
A Cuban rides his bike during a nation wide blackout in Havana on 21 March (Photo: Yamil Lage/AFP/Getty)
Wind-up torch
The Government recommends opting for torches over candles, for safety reasons.
How to prepare
A blackout is unlikely but we should make small changes.
If possible, don’t let your petrol tank run down to almost empty. Keep it over half full so you’re never caught short.
Always have a portable power bank, and spare batteries, to charge your phone and other essentials.
As card machines could fail, keep some cash at home.
To keep yourself distracted and entertained, keep board games and a pack of cards handy to play.
Nevertheless, it will boost backers of Burnham’s attempts to become prime minister by the middle of next month in a so-called coronation, without having to fight a leadership contest against any challengers.
Tactical voting
In more bad news for Farage, the polling by BMG Research finds most voters who intend to vote Labour, Lib Dem or Green at the next election – are prepared to vote tactically. However, Reform and Tory voters are less prepared to vote tactically.
Burnham’s huge victory in the Makerfield by-election last week when he gained more votes than all the opposition parties put together, is partly put down to tactical voting to prevent a Reform victory, with the Lib Dem and Green vote collapsing.
Reform also lost out in the earlier Gorton and Denton by-election to the Greens, when Labour’s vote collapsed, and were beaten by Plaid Cymru in Caerphilly in similar circumstances.
The impact of Starmer’s resignation, announced on Monday, was already benefitting Labour in headline voting intention – who voters would back if there was an election tomorrow – with Labour recording its highest support in nearly a year on 23 per cent, now four points behind Reform’s 27 per cent.
The polling also sees Kemi Badenoch win the greatest voting intention share for the Tories since November with 20 per cent.
Worrying trend for Farage
In more bad news for Farage, polling by BMG Research finds that most voters who intend to vote Labour, Lib Dem or Green at the next election are prepared to vote tactically. While many Reform and Tory voters are prepared to vote tactically, it is not in as large numbers.
Burnham’s huge victory in the Makerfield by-election last week, when he gained more votes than all the opposition parties put together, is partly put down to tactical voting to prevent a Reform victory, with the Lib Dem and Green vote collapsing.
Reform also lost out in the earlier Gorton and Denton by-election to the Greens, when Labour’s vote collapsed, and were beaten by Plaid Cymru in Caerphilly in similar circumstances.
The impact of Starmer’s resignation, announced on Monday, was already benefiting Labour in headline voting intention – who voters would back if there was an election tomorrow – with Labour recording its highest support in nearly a year on 23 per cent, now four points behind Reform’s 27 per cent.
The polling also sees Badenoch win the greatest voting intention share for the Tories since November with 20 per cent.
‘The bounce is wafer thin’
Jack Curry, pollster at BMG Research, said there was a clear “Burnham effect” in the numbers but warned that the bounce is “wafer thin” and such boosts rarely survive “the daily grind of leading”.
“With Andy Burnham as leader, Labour climbs to 27 per cent and edges marginally ahead of Reform for the first time in a long time,” he said
“Head to head against Nigel Farage, Burnham leads on every single attribute we tested, from competence and honesty to representing Britain on the world stage.
“Although on the surface, that looks like exactly the asset Labour has lacked, it is worth noting ratings given to a hypothetical leader tend to flatter and rarely survive contact with the daily grind of actually leading, let alone governing.
“The caution is that the bounce is wafer-thin.
“Burnham’s lead over Reform in that scenario is a single point, and on these numbers, no party is anywhere near a working majority.
“Extrapolated to seats, Labour and Reform would be essentially neck and neck, each more than a hundred short of governing alone.
“A leadership change would reshuffle the deck, but it would not on its own deal Labour a winning hand.”
“If, as it looks like, Burnham does end up as leader, he would be inheriting a very precarious position, and he could not afford to rest on his laurels. His own side is restless, too. A third of Labour’s 2024 voters want an early general election regardless of who takes over.”
Personal lead over Farage
Labour MPs backing Burnham as the figure best placed to tackle Reform will also be pointing to results showing he enjoyed personal leads over Farage on a series of personal attributes.
Burnham (41 per cent) was seen as more competent than Farage (25 per cent), as well as more understanding of voters (25-41 per cent) and better placed to bring people in the country together (25-40 per cent).
The former Greater Manchester mayor also enjoyed significant leads on being genuine (25-40 per cent) and honest (23-38 per cent), and was seen as better placed to represent the UK on the world stage (27-40 per cent).
Burnham also won the so-called pint test, with voters more likely to want to get a beer with the Labour man (34 per cent) than Farage (28 per cent).
: BMG surveyed a representative sample of 1,508 GB adults between 23 and 24 June. Data were collected after Sir Keir Starmer announced he was standing down as Labour leader. BMG is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.