Vladimir Putin is launching spy drones from shadow fleet tankers and flying them above critical energy sites in his escalating hybrid warfare campaign against the UK and Europe, intelligence experts have warned.
While the shadow fleet provides an economic lifeline to Russia’s wartime economy, evidence points to the Kremlin increasingly “weaponising” the vessels by using them to carry out intelligence gathering and to target underwater energy and data cables.
Security guards recruited from Russia’s armed forces and intelligence services are now routinely being deployed on the ships, intelligence experts monitoring the tankers have discovered.
Sources told The i Paper that there is a “close correlation” between drone flights and the movements of the shadow fleet or Russian commercial vessels.
Moscow generates revenues worth £156m a day from oil exports carried on a fleet of up to 1,300 ageing, sanctions-busting tankers making dozens of transits a week through British and European waters en route to and from Russian fossil fuel export hubs on the Baltic Sea.
Military planners fear that the Kremlin has drawn up a blueprint also to use clandestine merchant vessels, including oil tankers, to hit British and European targets in the event of a direct clash with Nato.
Among the potential tactics available to Moscow would be the use of special forces on board tankers to harass or sink Western civilian shipping and deploying drones or missiles concealed in shipping containers.
UK commandos conducted an operation against a Russian ship sailing under a false Cameroonian flag earlier this month, sparking discussions on British defences capabilities against further Russian aggression (Photo: Ministry of Defence/SWNS)
Several European countries, led by France, have in recent months stepped up seizures and boardings of shadow fleet vessels in an attempt to disrupt the flow of funds into the Kremlin’s war coffers. Earlier this month, British commandos seized an illegally flagged tanker in the English Channel. Meanwhile, France on Thursday announced the detention of another vessel off Sicily, bringing the total number of tanker seizures by European states since January to nine.
80 per cent rise in drone incidents with potential links to Russian tankers
But at the same time, the shadow fleet is increasingly being used to hit back at Ukraine’s allies.
An analysis shared with The i Paper shows a steady intensification of incidents linked to the shadow fleet in the last 12 months – a phenomenon which it is now feared will continue to escalate in seas around the UK and northern Europe over the next two years as the Kremlin struggles in its war against Ukraine and Putin looks for new ways of inflicting pain on its backers.
ACLED, an independent conflict monitoring organisation, tracked 56 incidents involving drones potentially launched from shadow fleet vessels to surveil critical infrastructure from Germany to Ireland and Spain to Norway in the last 18 months, up from 31 in the previous three years – an 80 per cent increase.
Intelligence sources told The i Paper that there is a “close correlation” between drone overflights close to the European coastline, including over UK North Sea energy installations, and the movements of shadow fleet or Russian commercial vessels.
(Source: ACLED)
ACLED also tracked four incidents of damage to cables in the Baltic Sea, suspected of having been caused by Russian oil tankers, since the beginning of last year. At the same time, a Russian spy ship, the Yantar, has been routinely tracked in the English Channel and the North Sea, prompting a change to UK rules of engagement last year after the intelligence-gathering vessel shone lasers at an RAF surveillance aircraft.
Witold Stupnicki, a senior analyst for ACLED, said there was no doubt that Moscow is now using its shadow fleet as a “hybrid warfare platform” acting increasingly alongside Russian military vessels, and forming a persistent threat to UK and European security.
He said: “In the next one to two years, the threats will involve risks to undersea cables connecting northern European countries. Moreover, the shadow fleet will remain a platform for drone reconnaissance over critical infrastructure – driving further escalations.”
Putin ‘laying the groundwork for war’
Intelligence experts say Russia is increasingly using its shadow fleet to make up for its limited surface fleet naval power in the Baltic, and that it may well be being used to help Moscow lay the groundwork for a military confrontation.
SWP, a German think-tank, warned last month that Europe was paying “too little attention” to the military threat posed by the shadow fleet. It said there was a likelihood that Russia-linked vessels were being used to gather vast amounts of intelligence on the procedures and response times of countries, including the UK, to events such as damage to underwater infrastructure.
Julian Pawlak, a defence expert for SWP, said: “The [shadow] fleet is expanding the threat spectrum. It cannot be ruled out that sabotage and espionage are being used as preparatory measures or to support potential military actions.”
Royal Navy ship HMS Diamond (foreground) shadowing Russian underwater reconnaissance ship Yantar. The vessel has two uncrewed submarines thought to be capable of severing cables (Photo: Ministry of Defence)
Defence sources pointed to a growing pattern of discoveries of eavesdropping or espionage equipment, as well as additional security personnel not normally found on merchant vessels, on board shadow fleet tankers and freighters.
Last September, German authorities raided the Scanlark, a Russian-crewed cargo vessel and recovered items including non-standard GPS antennas and high-end 360-degree cameras after a drone was spotted over-flying a German naval vessel.
Around the same time, a second Russian freighter operating between the North Sea and the Baltic was identified as being a suspected launch pad for military-grade fixed-wing drones used to inspect dozens of sites using satellite navigation.
Intelligence agents ‘being placed on shadow tankers’
In the six months since last September, Europe has suffered a spate of suspected drone incidents, which led to the disruption of airports and military bases in Germany, France, Denmark, Belgium and Ireland.
Among the most high-profile episodes occurred last December when four military-class drones were seen near the flight path of a plane carrying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as it headed towards Dublin airport. The Irish authorities said it was suspected that the drones had been launched from a vessel in the Irish Sea using GPS spoofing techniques to hide its identity and location.
Separately, there is growing evidence that Moscow is deploying specialist personnel aboard shadow fleet vessels to conduct clandestine or intelligence operations.
French soldiers onboard the shadow fleet tanker Boracay after the vessel was intercepted last September on suspicion of being involved in drone flights over Denmark (Photo: Damien Meyer/AFP)
In March, French prosecutors outlined the findings of an investigation into the Boracay, a Benin-flagged tanker seized off the Brittany coast last September after it was suspected of involvement in drone incidents targeting Denmark. Security sources said two Russian nationals, one of whom had previously worked for the notorious Wagner mercenary group, had been found on board the vessel, fuelling suspicions that Moscow is placing intelligence officers on board its tanker fleets.
One UK intelligence source said: “This is all about Russia wanting to increase the pain for Ukraine’s allies by weaponising the shadow fleet. The extra personnel [on board the tankers] are ostensibly security guards whose primary role is to watch over non-Russian crews.
“But it is well within Moscow’s intelligence capabilities to place specialists on board these ships to gather intelligence as they pass through European waters, including the [English] Channel.”
‘Asymmetric combat’
In the event of a conflict with Nato, experts believe the shadow fleet and other vessels such as fishing boats are being prepared by the Kremlin for “asymmetric combat deployment”.
Admiral James Stavridis, a former supreme allied commander of Nato, warned last October that Moscow is likely to be developing plans to use the shadow fleet to carry commandos in unmarked uniforms to assault civilian shipping, for the launch of disguised missiles, to conduct electronic jamming and to rip out vital navigation aids such as buoys and shipping channel lights.
A key issue with confronting the shadow fleet is the difficulty of conclusively tying vessels to individual incidents. Russian tankers often encrypt communications and routinely turn off their location beacons and tracking devices, making the building of a case against specific vessels challenging.
Data collated by maritime intelligence company Windward recorded a 153 per cent increase in “drifting activity” – vessels remaining stationary or moving without apparent purpose – in the Baltic during 2024. The tactic is often linked to damage to subsea cables and pipelines caused by vessels dragging their anchors.
And yet when Finnish authorities seized a Russian oil tanker, the Eagle S, for rupturing an electricity link which provides two-thirds of the transfer capacity between Estonia and Finland, the case was eventually thrown out by the courts on the basis that there was a lack of proven intent and jurisdiction.
Experts said countries were ill-prepared for facing the security threat posed by the shadow fleet and need to improve their tracking of vessels and achieve greater consistency in their response to sabotage or espionage incidents. Stupnicki said: “The shadow fleet is integral to Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy and war economy, and its threat to European waters is not likely to subside.”