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TMX Group (TSX:X) is back in focus after reporting June 2026 financing activity on Toronto Stock Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange, including 31 new issuers and a sharp month over month jump in total financings.
See our latest analysis for TMX Group.
Against this backdrop, TMX Group’s short term share price momentum has softened, with the stock at CA$48.4 and a 30 day share price return of 3.83% and year to date share price return of 5.96%. Its 3 year and 5 year total shareholder returns of 71.24% and 104.20% respectively point to a stronger longer term record as investors weigh recent financing data and upcoming investor presentations.
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TMX Group shares have pulled back over the past year, even as financing activity and earnings have kept the business in focus. Is the real upside still ahead for this stock, or has most of it already played out in the price?
Most Popular Narrative: 25.6% Undervalued
TMX Group’s most followed narrative places fair value at CA$65.03 against the last close of CA$48.40, framing the stock as meaningfully below that estimate.
The accelerating expansion of TMX’s Global Insights and Data Analytics division, including double digit growth in recurring revenue segments like Trayport and VettaFi, is increasing high margin, predictable income streams and improving overall net margins. TMX’s strategic investments in digital platforms (for example, post trade modernization, cloud based architecture for trading systems, and flexible marketplace technology) directly address the evolving landscape of digital assets and tokenization. This is described as providing a future ready infrastructure and unlocking new sources of transactional and data revenue as digital securities adoption broadens.
Want to understand why this narrative leans toward a higher fair value for TMX Group? It rests on steady revenue gains, firmer margins, and a richer earnings multiple built on those projections.
Result: Fair Value of CA$65.03 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this TMX Group narrative could be tested if private markets continue to draw issuers away from exchanges, or if blockchain based platforms bypass traditional trading and clearing.
Find out about the key risks to this TMX Group narrative.
Another View: TMX Group Looks Expensive On Earnings
While the TMX Group narrative centers on a fair value of CA$65.03, the current P/E of 25x tells a tougher story. That multiple sits well above the Canadian Capital Markets industry at 9.6x, the peer average at 17.5x, and even the fair ratio of 20.5x, which implies meaningful valuation risk if expectations slip.
For investors comparing these signals, the question is whether TMX Group can justify staying above both peers and its own fair ratio, or if the share price eventually drifts closer to those earnings benchmarks.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
TSX:X P/E Ratio as at Jul 2026 Next Steps
With mixed views on whether TMX Group is fully priced, it makes sense to move quickly, review the underlying data, and form your own take by checking the 4 key rewards
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include X.TO.
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