Rio Tinto may need to bulk up its copper pipeline, Swiss bank says Rio Tinto may need to bulk up its copper pipeline, Swiss bank says Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock

UBS says Rio Tinto Ltd (LSE:RIO, ASX:RIO, OTC:RTNTF) may need to bulk up its copper pipeline if it is to avoid a growth gap after 2030, with Argentina’s Los Azules project emerging as a possible answer.

The bank, which rates Rio at Neutral, with a 7,300p price target, said the miner is on track to lift copper output from 883,000 tonnes in 2025 to around 1 million tonnes by 2030, helped by Oyu Tolgoi and Kennecott.

Beyond that, UBS sees fewer clear options. It said Rio “does however lack meaningful copper growth optionality medium-term 2030-35”, with Resolution, La Granja and Nuevo Cobre longer-dated and Winu relatively small.

Los Azules could help fill the hole. Rio already owns 17% of the Argentina copper project, and was reported in May to be considering increasing its stake.

UBS described Los Azules as a long-life, low-cost SXEW operation targeting first copper in 2030. The 2025 feasibility study points to 205,000 tonnes of annual cathode output in the first five years, US$1.71/lb C1 costs, US$2.11/lb AISC and roughly US$3bn of capex.

At UBS’s long-term copper price of US$5.50/lb, the bank estimates Los Azules could be worth around US$5bn, with an IRR of roughly 28%.