Citi backs NatWest and HSBC as UK banking noise set to fade Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock
Citi has told investors that concerns over UK politics and Chinese regulation weighing on the country’s banks should now begin to ease, allowing attention to return to what it calls impressive return trajectories.
In its summer 2026 big-picture note on the sector, the bank said it remained constructive on UK bank fundamentals, citing net interest margin expansion and high-volume growth.
Net interest margin measures the gap between what banks earn on loans and pay on deposits, a key driver of profitability.
Citi said a combination of political developments at home and regulatory moves in China had muddied the picture in recent weeks.
The broker believes those concerns should fade, with the sector’s return profile becoming visible again as second-quarter reporting gets under way.
Citi is most constructive on the medium-term earnings outlook, relative to consensus, for NatWest Group PLC (LSE:NWG) and HSBC Holdings PLC (LSE:HSBA), both of which it rates ‘buy’. The bank also has a ‘buy’ rating on Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LSE:LLOY). Barclays PLC (LSE:BARC) and Standard Chartered PLC (LSE:STAN) are rated ‘neutral’.
The note lands ahead of a busy reporting season for the UK’s biggest lenders, which have benefited in recent years from higher interest rates feeding through to margins.
HSBC and Standard Chartered carry significant exposure to China and Hong Kong, leaving them more sensitive to shifts in Chinese regulation than their domestically focused peers.
NatWest and Lloyds, by contrast, are more geared to the UK economy and any political developments affecting the outlook for rates, taxation and the housing market.