Lloyds Banking Group’s (LSE:LLOY) shares are trading near 112p, their highest level since 2008. In that situation, it’s natural to think that the ship has sailed.

A share price however, doesn’t tell investors whether a stock is cheap or expensive – only whether people have been buying it. And that distinction matters more than usual right now.

What’s going on?

The Bank of England looks set to hold rates at 3.75% for a fourth straight month on 30 July. That’s the same day Lloyds issues its half-year results. 

Investors with short memories have already shrugged off May’s above-target 2.8% inflation print, putting it down to unusually high oil prices. This is a big part of why the stock’s up.

That however, is an ongoing situation. The US and Iran are back in open conflict again and predicting exactly what happens next over there’s a complicated business to say the least.

Over the long term however, there are two numbers that investors looking at Lloyds’ shares should pay attention to. They’re the same with most bank stocks. 

The first is the company’s return on equity (ROE) and the other is the price-to-book (P/B) ratio the shares trade at. And these are in interesting territory right now.

What do the charts say?

ROE measures how efficiently a company turns shareholder capital into profit. In the case of Lloyds, that means making loans. That means the best way to look at the future is over time or against peers, rather than in isolation. Higher is better and Lloyds has been doing well recently. 

Source: Fiscal.ai

Higher’s better and the bank’s ROE is at a level that it hasn’t sustained in years. That can only be a good thing. The P/B ratio measures how much the market is willing to pay for that equity base. And this is also at unusually high levels

Source: Fiscal.ai

A business that reliably earns higher returns on equity deserves to trade at a higher P/B multiple. That much isn’t controversial, but the question is whether Lloyds is such a business.

The bank’s ROE has been cyclical in the past – in line with the ups and downs in the wider economy. And I expect that to continue going forward.

Outlook

The stock market’s pricing Lloyds shares as though the current ROE is the new normal. But it might not be. There are some worrying signs in the UK economy right now. And these are things investors need to pay attention to. 

One is job vacancies at a five-year low. Another is the number of people not in employment, education, or training, which is above 1,000,000 for the first time in 13 years. 

Those are concerning signs for future mortgage demand. And the number of hawkish members on the monetary policy committee is another potential obstacle.

None of these is a reason to sell the stock right now. But they’re all reasons to be wary when the share price reflects optimistic assumptions.

What to do

Lloyds is making the most of a favourable environment. The bank’s pushing on with share buybacks and it’s paying solid dividends. 

In this case however, I think discretion is the better part of valour. I like the business, but I’m waiting for the valuation to become a bit more attractive.

Should you invest £5,000 in Lloyds Banking Group Plc right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Lloyds Banking Group Plc made the list?

 See The Six Stocks

Stephen Wright does not own shares in any of the companies mentioned.

The post Lloyds shares seem unstoppable — but what do investors need to watch out for? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

More reading

The Twelfth Magpie 2026