Barclays falls as analysts look beyond headline profit beat Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock
Barclays PLC (LSE:BARC) delivered a better-than-expected second quarter but investors seemed to focus on weaker net interest income, additional costs and limited scope for forecast upgrades.
Shares in the bank fell 5.6% to 500.8p by Tuesday afternoon.
Pre-tax profit of £3.25 billion beat consensus by 4%, while earnings per share of 16.7p came in 6% ahead. The investment bank did much of the heavy lifting, with revenue of £3.96 billion beating forecasts by 8% and pre-tax profit coming in 10% higher than expected.
Analysts at Jefferies described the figures as “a slightly messy set of numbers”, noting that strength in investment banking was partly offset by weaker income elsewhere.
Net interest income excluding the IB and head office missed consensus by 2%, reflecting shortfalls at Barclays UK and the US consumer bank.
Fixed-income, currencies and commodities revenue increased just 1% year on year, trailing some US rivals.
Costs were 3% higher than expected, driven by the IB, while Barclays also flagged around £300 million of costs connected with structural cost actions and £100-150 million from changes to its bonus mix during the second half.
Those expenses could absorb much of the benefit from upgraded income guidance, analysts said, as Barclays raised its 2026 group income target to around £31.5 billion and its net interest income forecast to more than £13.7 billion.
However, consensus was already at £31.2 billion and £13.9 billion, respectively.
As a result, broker Shore Capital expects only modest forecast upgrades and noted that the shares had “enjoyed a strong run into the results”, up over 40% from March lows.
The clearest positive was capital returns, where Barclays announced a £1 billion buyback, 20% larger than expected, and a 5.9p interim dividend, 13% ahead.
Its CET1 ratio remained robust at 14.3%, while tangible net asset value reached 423p a share.
Jefferies said the distributions and Barclays’ confidence in achieving return on tangible equity above 14% by 2028 remained central to the longer-term case.