Rio Tinto has reported a 47 per cent in the first six months of 2026 as stronger commodity prices and higher production helped the miner lean into the AI supercycle.

Half-year profit rose from $4.5 billion in the first half of 2025 to $6.6 billion, a rise of 47 per cent. 

The company also reported a 75 per cent surge in free cash flow to US$3.8 billion and announced its biggest dividend in four years — 211 US cents a share, up 43 per cent and fully franked for Australian shareholders. 

It came after the mining giant reported a 3 per cent rise in copper-equivalent production for the first half, as it continues devoting resources to the metal central to both the energy transition and the AI supercycle. 

Breaking down its profit mix, the report showed copper, aluminum and lithium now account for more than half of profits, with copper alone delivering a record US$5.7 billion, up 84 per cent. This came as the Mongolian copper and gold mine Oyu Tolgoi continues to ramp up, with copper prices near US$6 a pound and gold above US$4,600 an ounce over the period. 

At its last annual general meeting (AGM), Trott had reaffirmed the miner’s cost-cutting focus and pointed to opportunities in energy transition metals such as copper and lithium. 

The market responded positively to the results, sending the company’s share price up 7 per cent on 29 July. 

For ETF Shares chief investment officer, David Tuckwell, the results show the company is leaning firmly into copper. 

“These results tell the story CEO Simon Trott wants to tell: Rio is no longer an iron ore company with a copper hobby,” Tuckwell told Investor Daily. 

The shift into copper also follows rival BHP’s February results, which showed copper had become its largest earnings driver for the first time ever. At the time, this contrasted with Rio’s weaker results and slower pivot into the metal. 

It also helps Rio shake off the collapse of its proposed US$300 billion mega-merger with Glencore earlier this year, a deal that drew widespread attention for its potential to rapidly expand Rio’s copper portfolio. 

Beyond the metal, Rio’s long-time mainstay, iron ore, slipped to make up 47 per cent of EBITDA at US$6.8 billion. However, the Pilbara had a strong first half. 

“Pilbara: its best first half since 2018, shrugging off Q1 cyclones, even as iron ore slipped to less than half of group EBITDA, a milestone in itself for a company that has lived and died by Chinese steel demand for two decades,” Tuckwell said. 

Given the pre-released production figures and slashed copper guidance reported a fortnight ago, he added that he didn’t expect the results to trigger the wild share price swings that have become typical in recent ASX reporting seasons. 

According to Tuckwell, the “genuinely good news” sat in the balance sheet, where net debt fell to US$14.1 billion when analysts expected it to rise towards US$15.4 billion. This has kept Rio’s US$5 billion capital-release target for year-end “credible” and the 50 per cent payout ratio comfortably funded. 

On the other hand, Rio reported two fatalities in the half, at Simandou and Kennecott, which the company placed at the top of its report. 

“We tragically lost two colleagues in the first half, at Simandou and Kennecott. Safety remains our highest priority. We are sharpening our focus on safety at every level, simplifying and strengthening our standards to concentrate on what matters most, reinforced by discipline in compliance. Our all-injury frequency rate (AIFR) for H1 2026 was 0.40,” the company stated. 

It added that it launched the Rio Tinto Management Operation System at the beginning of this month, which it described as “an integrated system defining our common approach to safety, risk and standards; people and leadership; and planning and performance”. 

Looking ahead to H2, Tuckwell concluded that the watch items for the company are familiar, with diesel costs blowing out as oil remains above US$90 a barrel, a stronger AUD squeezes Pilbara margins and a “hefty shipping task” to hit full-year iron ore guidance. 

Meanwhile, the company remains in an unresolved US$443 million tax standoff with the Mongolian government at Oyu Tolgoi.